Canelo’s best days, easily, will come out at 160.

His hand speed is not just fast at JMW, but very fast at JMW. His combinations, when he lets loose, are tremendous and G/d given talent. Imagine the hand speed at 160 ….
His power at JMW is pretty good. I think he hurt Angulo a few times (tough guy), knocked down Lopez three times, and landed some nasty shots on Lara. I think he has a decent amount of power at middleweight, too. Not quite instant KO power, but still decent power.
Middleweight’s footspeed are slower. He’ll be able to cut off the ring easier, which is something he struggles to do for several reasons. I think his stalking, boxer/puncher style will benefit by the slower movement of middleweights. This of course sets up for his tremendous combinations, as he will be in front of them more, and less moving around the ring. His foot speed will not seem to be as such a liability. This pretty much gets rid of his biggest weakness, or partly does, which is slick boxers.
He has had trouble with stamina, fighting in bunches. He is incredibly top heavy, big upper body with slim legs. At 160, he will be much more comfortable. This allows him to fight every round, something he has never done at all, truly.
His defense is already improving little by little, every fight. I admire this in him, his ability to improve. I think it will be better at MW.
He is still (before and after Mayweather), very raw. He is incredibly talented and he shows it in spurts. We are seeing more and more of these spurts, it is coming more common, and against better competition.
He has fought three really good JMW’s (Floyd, Lara, Trout. I don’t count Angulo only because we now know he was shot and weight drained …. I picked Angulo there) in a tough division. In the Trout fight I thought he won a close but clear decision. Against Floyd, he obviously lost against the best …. but, he had flashes and moments showing off his talent. Against Lara, he was in a really close fight I thought he won. He is battle tested. The middleweight division is slim.
There is no ceiling on Canelo’s potential. The kid is incredibly talented and it will come out fully @ MW, IMO.

 

agree and disagree here


Hand speed: I go back and forth on Canelo’s hand speed. It’s very good, but it isn’t truly great, and I’m not sure jumping up six pounds in weight will make all that much of a difference. I don’t think the 154-160 transition will make much of difference on his hands moving from point A to point B.

Power: Canelo’s power at 154 is the definition of "good but not great." He definitely can land some bombs, and he puts his combinations together beautifully. He’s also fairly imaginative with the way he mixes them up (possibly the most imaginative boxer today in the way he mixes up his shots). That said I don’t think him stopping Lopez, someone who had been fighting his entire career at 140 prior to eight months earlier, is much to use and an example of his power. My guess is his power might actually seem less significant at 160. The guys in this division will be a fair bit bigger and sturdier, and I do wonder if it will carry significantly.

Foot Speed: Canelo’s biggest weakness (along with stamina). Canelo is always going to struggle against outside boxers, and that’s something that honestly might only get worse as he moves up. Simply put, you say it best: his torso is too damn big, and his legs are like tooth picks in comparison. He reminds me a lot of Bob Fitzsimmons and Barbados Joe Walcott in that regard. I think a 160 pound Andrade for instance, will be nightmarish for Alvarez, and I’m not entirely certain I see anyway for Canelo to win against him, short of Andrade suddenly having a weak chin or serious stamina issues, which brings us to the next trait…

Stamina: Canelo’s stamina is also something he has struggled with mightily. It was readily apparent against Mosley, a completely shot fighter who offered little resistance, and yet Canelo never had him in trouble simply because he didn’t really have the stamina to keep the combinations going. He had to fight in spurts, and against someone with an iron chin, it simply won’t do. This I feel has the greatest chance of improving, especially if he is really killing himself to make 154 155.

Defense: I’m not sure a weight jump would assist this category, only experience. Canelo’s defense has definitely been rapidly improving, and it’s very impressive. However he is far from untouchable, and I’m not sure he’ll ever be like a Joe Frazier, someone who really made guys miss their best shots.

Competition: Alvarez is ambitious as hell and deserves all the praise in the world for chasing down the people considered to be his biggest threats. I just wish he looked better against them than he has. He has struggled in every big (meaningful) fight, and it pretty much means that we can’t ever take them as seriously as we would like to (as in, we can’t talk about how he cleaned out the 154 pound division, because in reality he squeaked by it via close and debatable decisions).

Potential: this is where we disagree the most sadly. I think Canelo could wind up being excellent, but I don’t ever see him being regarded as a great. He’s basically an 8 out of ten in all general areas (excellent, but never outstanding). I hope I’m proven wrong though. I would love for another great boxer to reveal himself.

 

Canelo will get flattened at 160