Canelo Álvarez At Light Heavyweight ~ A Much Needed Reality Check.

Let's get this out of the way upfront. It's no secret that I'm not a huge fan of Canelo Álvarez in any way, shape or form. Duly noted, now let's move on, that's irrelevant to the point I'm making here.

I will gladly admit, Canelo is a very talented top notch highly skilled P4P fighter, I won't deny that... gifts or no gifts, he has a damned impressive resume. That being said, no matter how much I may dislike someone, I'm a compassionate person and have zero desire to see a fighter badly hurt or injured in the ring.

I am genuinely scared for Canelo here.

His health is at risk. I don't think most of his fans are cognizant of what's at stake here, as in they are not processing this match as adequately as they should. This fight is not only incredibly dangerous, if his corner aren't ready at a moment's notice to throw in the towel, it could be life threatening.

Canelo is not a big guy. At best he's 5'8 and he's not even naturally a Middleweight. He's just a chubby Light Middleweight. His move up to 160 has certainly exceeded my and many others expectations, so full credit to him for that. His skills and defense have taken him quite far. It's quite impressive what he's accomplished. But the reality is, he is stretching it even now. He definitely doesn't have the build of a natural Super Middleweight and nowhere in the vicinity of that of a proper Light Heavyweight. The reality is, there's just not much room for him to grow. He isn't built like a James Toney, Roy Jones Jr. or Bernard Hopkins. There's not much more room for him to fill out now without looking fat.

As far as punching power goes, his power was overrated at 154, the only opponents he one punch KO'd were guys known for their glass jaws. Thus far at Middleweight, he hasn't even come close to dropping anyone he's shared the ring with. Not GGG in two tries, not Danny Jacobs and not even a shell of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. His power has clearly not carried up to Middleweight. He hits hard enough, but his power is anything but devastating.

Many will point to his brief move to 168 in his match against Fielding, well that would be childish of them, Rocky is perhaps one of the most frail fighters at 168, he was dropped three times with glancing hooks and stopped in one round by Callum Smith, and dropped and nearly stopped by Rebrasse, who has a Malignaggi-esque KO ratio. It took Canelo standing in the pocket pounding him with bombs with excellent leverage and full torque on them non stop for three rounds to get him out of there. Remember this IS NOT a top fighter at 168.

His power didn't carry up from 154 to 160, certainly not up to 168, and with even more bulk, it's highly unlikely that trend will reverse itself at 175.

Now think about this for a minute. What is the weight difference between 154 and 160?

A paltry SIX pounds. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Now what is the difference between 160 and 168?

A less paltry EIGHT pounds. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Now what's the difference between 160 and 175?

A whopping FIFTEEN Pounds.

That's count 'em... 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 Pounds.

Hell, there's only 14 pounds between 154 and 168.

This is going to be fought TWENTY ONE pounds above Canelo's natural weight.

What about the stamina issues? Sure it was improved in the Chavez fight, but in the GGG matches, it reared its head again. It wasn't quite as obvious, Canelo hid it well, and he was aided by the fact that GGG's stamina wasn't all that great either. But the real telling fights were his matches against Fielding and Jacobs. Go back and watch both. Canelo took a few chunks of the 3rd round off against Fielding. Yes, he was huffing and puffing again, he was so gassed after two rounds, he had to pace himself in the third. But the real worrying sign was the fact that he was completely gassed after the sixth against Jacobs. So gassed, his defense was lapsing and Jacobs was landing absolute bombs on him, a few that rocked him to his core. I have a bad feeling at 168 and especially 175, his stamina will be non existent.

Be honest with yourselves Canelo fans, Canelo has not even fought against a live body at 168, and if he does, could he beat a few of the guys up there? Sure. But how much of a chance do you give him against the top dogs?

Okay, fine.... since Chris Eubank moved back down to 160, Ryder has done wonders, but is still small. Saunders is malleable, could easily move back down to 160. George Groves and James DeGale have retired and Badou Jack, Jesse Hart and Gilberto Ramirez have moved to 175, there's slim pickings at 168, but let's just focus on the big guns at the moment.

Can Canelo beat 6'1 Caleb Plant?
Can Canelo beat 6'2 Jose Uzcategui?
Can Canelo beat 6'2 David Benavidez?
Can Canelo beat 6'3 Callum Smith?

Would you fear for the well being of Canelo against Benavidez and Smith? They're damn big punchers, and are physically monsters.

Now take into consideration the thread that I've already done on comparing the shared opponents of Callum Smith and Anthony Yarde. The contrast was jarring. Yarde clearly packs far more frightening power than the quite heavy handed Smith.
Food For Thought: Determining The Bigger Puncher Between Canelo & Yarde By Way Of Callum Smith.

There's a reason why most knowledgeable fans have been saying the scariest division in the sport is Light Heavyweight. Because most of the guys up there are not only huge compared to MW's, but many of them are not only as skilled, but in some cases more skilled than most of the guys at 160. Worst of all, they're not only big punchers, but absolutely savage punchers. As in their power makes GGG looks like a featherfist.

So now ask yourselves some serious questions.

Let's get the has beens and average guys out of the way first. Can Canelo beat Badou Jack? Jean Pascal? Jesse Hart? Marcus Browne? Sullivan Barrera? Vyacheslav Shabranskyy? Felix Valera? Isaac CHilemba? Maksim Vlasov? Azizbek Abdugofurov? Most of whom are power punchers, skilled and quite large.

Much less the absolute beasts up there? The real question is how does he fare against the guys that most other Light Heavyweights fear sharing the ring with.

Can Canelo beat 6'0 Joe Smith Jr? 74% KO ratio
Can Canelo beat 6'0 Anthony Yarde? 89% KO ratio
Can Canelo beat 6'2 Joshua Buatsi? 83% KO ratio
Can Canelo beat 6'3 Gilberto Ramirez?
Can Canelo beat 6'0 Callum Johnson? 69% KO ratio
Can Canelo beat 6'0 Eleider Alvarez?
Can Canelo beat 6'0 Dmitry Bivol?
Can Canelo beat 6'2 Oleksandr Gvozdyk? 78% KO ratio
Can Canelo beat 6'0 Sergey Kovalev? 76% KO ratio
Can Canelo beat 6'0 Artur Beterbiev? 100% KO ratio?

Gvozdyk nearly killed Stevenson, Beterbiev put Gvozdyk in the hospital, Kovalev has killed a man. The rest have retired fighters, knocked fighters out of the ring and almost all of them have highlight reel truly hard to look at KO's on their ledgers.

This sport is not a game, it's not a joke, this is serious business, as recent tragic events have shown us.

Stop being irrational blind lemming fanboys, wrap your heads are this a little better, get out of the haze of boxing forum wars, and start thinking straight.

If Canelo KO's Kovalev, that will not only be impressive, but shocking. It will also mean that Kovalev had nothing left and stay around one match too long. But if Kovalev violently KO's Canelo, most fans won't even bat an eye, and will not be shocked in the least.

But what if he does win? Then what? Do you want to see him risk his health against Smith? Beterbiev? Gvozdyk? Where does he go from here win or lose? It's really hard to drop back down in weight when you've gone up that high ad don't have the frame for it. At best he might be able to get back down to 168. He's walking himself into a real bind here, and quite frankly I don't know what Golden Boy or Canelo are thinking. Is it overconfidence and hubris? Are they delusional? Or have they lost the plot completely? It's quite perplexing when you think about it. Canelo who's in his prime, in theory should have many years left as a pro. This move to 175, might not only shorten his prime by years, but could end his career altogether. What the hell are they thinking??? This is actually madness. This is that serious. So get your heads straight.

Mull what I've said over and discuss.

Are Golden Boy being as profoundly irresponsible as I think they are here?

 

Try actually reading the thread and processing what I wrote for a second. Also this thread isn't about only the Kovalev match.