Canelo Álvarez At Light Heavyweight ~ A Much Needed Reality Check.

Guess you’ll be homeless in 40 days

 

also as you mentioned not only the size but the style he has

he has good upper body movement but what about those legs ?

if he fights at LHW the way he fought ggg in the first fight he can move well . but for how long?? til he gasses out

 

Agree with OP. Canelo can't fight Kov on the outside. Fortunately, Kov may not be able to find his head for the first 4 rounds. Canelo will have to try to get inside and, with the size disadvantage, Canelo's stamina will suffer more when Kovalev ties him up. Kovalev won't even have to aim for his body. By the middle rounds, Canelo will slow down just enough for Kov to start landing big BIG shots. One or two of those and it should be (hopefully) apparent to Canelo's corner that the fight is over and needs to be stopped.

 

The original post would have been fitting if Canelo had any interest of staying at 175. Golden Boy or Canelo have not expressed this, for a good reason.

This is an opportunist at work. Canelo sees a shot champion, who is afraid to pull the trigger anymore. Prime Kovalev would have killed Canelo. Sure there is still some risk today but it is blown out of proportion.

Canelo isn’t stupid. He will never sign up to fight someone like Beterbiev. Unless Beterbiev himself is well out of his prime.

Makes me actually think, what good names on Canelo’s resume were actually in their prime? Jacobs?

Saul “Buitre” Álvarez

 

Canelo is in over his head. Kovalev will keep him at range and there will be a mercy stoppage around rds 9-10

 

GGG, Floyd, Cotto, Mosley, Kovalev etc.. His best opponents.. They were all about 35 years of age (or older) at the time Canelo fought them..

Isn't that quite telling.. throw in
Mexican beef.. & we have a very carefully crafted commodity here..

 

Lol take it you only read the title?Canelo doesn't "destroy"his opponent's.I know you'll probably just think I'm being a hater but his record suggests he wins by decision.I'm not saying he has no power but I've noticed after just a few rounds he eases up and tries to put in the numbers.

I know that signature body shot of Canelos with the big flourish looks glorious and a thing of beauty but after comparing this with Beterbiev whose body shot that forced Gvodzyk to stop had very little back swing or flourish and it crippled a fellow light heavyweight.
Listen you may be proved right but if Canelo couldn't destroy Jacob's or Golovkin I don't see how you arrive at this conclusion.

 

Is it ok if we use the same energy for another fighter ??

 

As another poster said it's carefully crafted,taking on really good names in the sport who are so grateful for the big payday they are prepared to let anything go.Golovkin even mentioned the failed tests and needle marks and was still prepared to let it go and fight him anyway,such is the lure of the dollar.
Was wondering if Golovkin had been sued for his defamatory comments about Oscar and Canelos drug use?
're PEDS I don't think it would have a bearing on speed or power but I think it would have on shot resistance.

 

You seriously think at nearly thirty years of age he's gonna "grow"more power?How is it possible that this one man breaks all the rules and still continues to grow?It's not possible at his age to grow or gain anymore than what he currently is.
I guess you mean he would grow into the division by way of getting used to it?but I'm not convinced of this as he's always gonna be a light puncher in relation to those around him and he's carrying around all that weight up against guys who cut weight.Canelo will cut very little to make weight imo.

 

Here's a counterpoint.

Canelo is clearly a better fighter at higher weights than at 154. That's because 154 is not his natural weight. He was draining the life out of himself to boil down to the weight and feast on smaller guys. I'd say he's a natural 160 guy if anything. His stamina has vastly improved since 154, and if he looked out of sorts against Golovkin its because GGG pressed him so hard and threw so many freaking punches at him. There's a reason he'd rather fight Kovalev, of all people, than Golovkin again.

Kovalev himself has seen much better days. There was a point where people were asking how he'd do against Marciano ... that's the sort of level he had. He's clearly not at that level anymore. Canelo's team isn't stupid and neither is Canelo. Ginger's punch resistance is great, he took some monster shots from Golovkin without crumbling. His defence is also next-level. Basically if he can make it to the end bell - and he was even remotely competitive - the usual Vegas judging will win it for him.

I think Golden Spoon and Canelo have taken a calculated risk here. They obviously feel that since Ward was able to fight Kovalev effectively up close, so will Canelo. They feel Kova is weak to the body and Canelo is a good body puncher. They think Canelo's stamina is going to be even better. And they may have a point. Canelo is the fighter with the momentum behind him. He's absolute prime and Kovalev is over the hill. Fighters in Canelo's position don't usually lose, especially when they are the money man. They probably looked at the Yarde fight and thought Kovalev may not recover easily from that.

I think that Canelo and Oscar genuinely believe that they can evade Kova's long range work and take it up close and crumble him. Abel Sanchez has seen Kovalev in the gym and he thinks they might be right. And even if Canelo can't out-fight Kova, he has that sweet Vegas insurance backing him up.

Personally I hope that CST80 is right.

I have a feeling that they may be overestimating Canelo's ability to go up in weight and retain his characteristics. He might be slower at 175. He might find that Kovalev's particularly long jab is horrible to deal with. Worst of all, he might discover that Kovalev can fight inside and did so against Ward and that SK goes to the body as well. The Yarde fight was discouraging in the respect that SK took a battering before he got the W. But on the other hand, it proved that he still has the fire, still has the stamina, and that he can take a punch. Yarde hits 2x harder than Canelo make no mistake.

In conclusion: there are a lot of valid reasons why Canelo and the spoon abuser think they can beat Kovalev. There are also reasons why they might be making a fatal error and they get a good version of Kovalev.

Here's to hoping they messed up.

 

I always wondered why his stamina is so abysmal, maybe cuz he is loading too much, compensating a natural lack of power? But its not enough, i think he also genetically has bad stamina, so it might be a combination of those 2 things...

Are you gonna make detailed match up thread any time soon?

 

This is a well written and compelling argument. However, being Devil's advocate, Oscar is not an idiot. He has been extremely careful in matchmaking Canelo and has created the biggest cash cow in boxing.

Do you think they know something we don't know or do you think they have made a huge miscalculation?

I think Canelo wants to both get away from GGG, because he doesn't want to give him the payday and so he can age even further, as well as prove himself at a higher weight. Kovalev is prime for the taking. He has lost the snap in his punches. There were threads about him being shot. Yarde got KOed because he learnt head movement by balancing a book on it, not because Kovalev blazed him out of there, as he would have in the past.

I think you'll find there is a key to this fight that you'll only know once it starts.

My theory: Kovalev is completely shot and wants his well deserved payday and the backroom men have told him to play nice. The ref and judges will be on the payroll, and Canelo will win a boring decision. All the fan girls will scream but afficionados of boxing that an unmotivated shell of Kovalev went through the motions.

What I hope is for the miscalculation and Canelo gets KOed.

 

On paper, Kovalev has this......

However too many things I cannot ignore

Blatant PED violation

Blatant WBC protection

Blatant fight score fixing

Blatant protectionism from commisions

Blatant rule bending by Golden Boy Pronotions and its narco traficking directors....

Will DAZN somehow join the act and rig this too....?