Canelo Bivol at 168 or 175?

We know that if they agree to fight at 168, this forum will go into full rage-mode over Canelo draining Bivol down a weight class, which will fit right into the Canelo demands and getting advantages narrative that continues to persist amongst his detractors.

I think it's important to dispel any myths about a potential Canelo Bivol fight at 168. Now of course with me even so much as talking about the fight happening at 168 I'll be accused of defending Canelo here and a potential draining of Bivol, that's to be expected and even understandable to an extent given all that has gone on with Canelo in terms of catchweights, rehydration clauses, and various fighters being drained over the years due to A-side demands. So you can accuse me of whatever you want, but I'm not arguing that it's OK to drain somebody or fight somebody like Bivol at a weight class below his own.

In fact, despite what you may think, I am staunchly against any A-side fighter "demanding" that his opponent cut weight to make him easier to beat. That's why I was so against what Mayweather did to Canelo, what Cotto did to Geale, what Pacquiao did to DLH and Cotto, etc. It's important to point out that I'm just a fan. I have no connection to Canelo or his team and I have no influence whatsoever on the decision-making process involved here between Canelo and Bivol as far as negotiations are concerned. I am not in any way trying to justify the fight being at 168 if it ends up happening there.

What I want more than anything is for Canelo to fight Bivol and for there not to be any controversy or excuses. And for that to occur, at least in the minds of most people on this forum, that will only be satisfied if the fight is at 175, Bivol's weight. I understand that, and I don't think it's unreasonable for Canelo to move up to 175 and fight Bivol at 175. After all, it wouldn't be Canelo's first rodeo at 175. He already fought Kovalev there and knocked him out. That would certainly be the weight that Canelo's detractors would need it to be at for a Canelo win to have a chance at being accepted or respected. (of course even at 175, a close decision win for Canelo would be still seen as a robbery by most, but that's par for the course)

But from a weight standpoint, I totally get that if the fight is agreed to at 168, regardless of how drained or unhealthy Bivol actually is fighting there, that the result will never be accepted by many posters on this forum and that it would fit right into the idea that continues to be perpetuated by his haters that Canelo makes demands of fighters and uses his A-side status to get advantages.

Now I've made it very clear that I don't see it that way, particularly in the sense that Canelo has up to this point never truly drained an opponent. Rehydration clauses in my view are not draining a fighter like catchweights are below a fighter's natural weight. And when Canelo has done catchweights, he's been the one who had to cut weight not his opponent. So in that sense, I don't think anyone can really argue against this logic.

Now on the surface, this situation seems very similar to Ward vs Dawson right. Ward was the champ at 168 and Dawson was the Champ at 175. Remember Dawson offered to move down to 168 to fight Ward and we know what happened. Dawson who was a corpse at 168, got easily outpointed, dominated really by Ward and was never the same again. I think we all would agree that the fight would have been very different if Ward moved up to 175 to fight Dawson. Maybe Dawson would have won, who knows. But he certainly would have stood a much better chance at his weight.

Now, this sounds pretty similar here from Bivol. Bivol on many occasions over a long period of time, even before Canelo was being talked about a possible opponent, has made it very clear that he has no problem fighting at 168. He repeatedly said he is very small for a Light Heavyweight and he insists that he would have no problem making 168.

So the first thing we need to do here is to dispel the myth that Canelo is somehow "demanding" that Bivol fight him at 168. No, no, lets be very clear. Bivol has taken it upon himself to say that he has no problem making 168. He's been saying this for years, and just said it again in a recent interview that he has no problem fighting Canelo at 168.

So whatever weight this fight ends of happening, lets be very clear that this is not a situation where Canelo or his team is demanding or insisting that Bivol kills himself to move down a weight to make him unhealthy. Because that's what the narrative is going to be if they agree to fight at 168 (or even at a catchweight between 168 and 175) which will only play into the lie that continues to be perpetuated that Canelo or his team make unreasonable demands of his opponents.

It's not unreasonable if the opponent has made it clear like Bivol has that he has no problem fighting at a lower weight. Now some people will point to Canelo saying he wanted to fight Mayweather at a catchweight in 2011, we've already discussed how misleading that interview was and why it was unreasonable and deceptive for Mayweather to do what he did. It was 2 years before they ended up fighting, and in those 2 years Mayweather went from fighting exclusively at 147 to moving up to 154 to fight Cotto and winning a title there. And in those 2 years Canelo, clearly was still putting on weight, he was much younger than Bivol is now and was still growing, so it became much tougher for Canelo to make 154 two years later after he was quoted about wanting a catchweight fight with Mayweather. And again, Canelo did not make the kind of statements right before he signed to fight Mayweather about how he has no problem dropping weight like what Bivol is making now about how he has no problem fighting at 168, that he's a small Light Heavyweight and could easily fight at 168. So lets be very clear, Bivol is saying this right now, right before the fight could be made, Bivol is essentially offering to drop down to fight Canelo at 168, similarly to how Dawson offered to drop down to 168 for Ward, and we know how that turned out for Dawson.

We can all agree that in retrospect, it was without a shadow of a doubt unwise and a huge miscalculation for Dawson to think he could drop down a weight class and still be healthy and effective against Ward. At the same time, I think we also need to understand that Dawson was a much bigger Light Heavyweight than Bivol is. Dawson wasn't making statements for years about how he's a small Light Heavyweight and how he would have no problem fighting at 168 like Bivol was. For Dawson, he was only offering to move down to 168 to fight Ward. But despite Dawson's miscalculation, I don't think it's fair to accuse Ward of being a weight bully in that situation. I don't think it's fair to accuse Ward of draining Dawson or "demanding" that Dawson move down, because again, like with Bivol is here with fighting at 168, it was clear that Dawson offered to move down to fight Ward.

It's very different for a fighter to offer to move down in weight, or say he has no problem fighting at a lower weight, than for a fighter to be coerced or manipulated by an opponent into fighting at a lower weight.

So if the fight does end of happening at 168, or even at a catchweight below 175, I don't want to hear any complaints or excuses about how Canelo or his team drained Bivol or demanded Bivol fight him on his terms. Because we didn't hear anyone blaming Ward for draining Dawson or demanding he move down now did we, despite the fact that Dawson was clearly drained and unhealthy fighting Ward at 168. That was on Dawson. You can't blame Ward for accepting Dawson's offer to move down to 168 and fight him at his weight as Bivol is clearly willing to do here.

It almost seems like Bivol would prefer to fight Canelo at 168, since he keeps talking about how he has no problem fighting at 168, that he's a small Light Heavyweight, etc. So my question to you is what do you make of that? Is this a tactical mistake by Bivol to offer to fight Canelo at 168 or is this a case where Bivol really could make 168 safely and wouldn't be drained like Dawson was?

 

I get and understand that most people would want this fight to happen at 175. Naturally we don't want to see Bivol drained nor do we want to see excuses in the event that Canelo beats him at 168. We know how that will be spun by the Canelo haters regardless of whether or not Bivol can actually make 168 safely or not.

But let be very clear about one thing, Canelo or his team is not insisting or demanding that Bivol fight him at 168. Bivol continues to say that he can make 168 no problem. So what do you make of this? Is Bivol making the same mistake that Dawson did with Ward or is Bivol truly a smaller Light Heavyweight, and unlike Dawson could more easily make 168 without killing himself like Dawson did?

I'm asking these questions not because I want Canelo to have an advantage to Bivol, on the contrary I don't want there to be any excuses or complaints about the weight. I know there will be if it happens at 168, and understandably so. I know in such a scenario of them fighting at 168, it fits right into what many anti-Canelo posters try to pin on Canelo. But again, to make that argument that Canelo is trying to drain Bivol, you would have to completely ignore the statements Bivol has made about how he has no problem fighting at 168. We can't just gloss over that and pretend like Bivol hasn't made it clear that he believes he can make 168 no problem.

I never blamed Ward or called him a weight bully for what happened to Dawson, despite the fact that Dawson was clearly drained when he fought him. The only thing I have a problem with is when an A-side fighter insists that his opponent drains himself lower than his natural weight like what Mayweather did to Canelo, what Pac did to Cotto, what Cotto did to Geale / Martinez, etc. I can't put Ward - Dawson into that same category beause that was Dawson offering to move down a weight class as Bivol is doing here.

So yes we know that most fans on here will only be OK if Canelo moves up to 175 to fight Bivol. Posters on here will cry and moan about how Canelo always insists on advantages if Bivol agrees to fight him at 168. Now the question I have is how effective and healthy would Bivol really be if he moved down to 168? Would he be a corpse like Dawson was vs Ward or could he make the weight safely?

And if you say he would be a corpse at 168 like Dawson was vs Ward, is that just your anti-Canelo bias talking or do you really have reason to believe that Bivol would have to kill himself to make that weight? And again, if that's the case, why would Bivol continue to put out there the idea that he can make 168 no problem if he really can't? If you believe Bivol can't make 168 safely, then at most, he would be making the same mistake Dawson made vs Ward. And it would not be a case of Canelo or his team making demands that Bivol move down to for him. It would be Bivol himself being very willing to offer to move down to 168 to fight Canelo.

I want to once again reiterate that I do not want to see Bivol drained. I do not want to see Canelo be accused of having an advantage over Bivol, so in that sense I think it's probably better that it happens at 175.

However at the same time, the concern I have is that Canelo is a far better fighter at 168 than he is at 175. The extra weight that he put on to fight Kovalev clearly slowed him down and made him much more economical with his punches. He was arguably losing the fight vs Kovalev due to inactivity during rounds, or at best it was a very even fight due to low output. Canelo when he fought Kovalev was a slower fighter with less handspeed and elusiveness than we've seen from him at lower weights.

So if Canelo does move up to 175 to fight Bivol, would he be the same fighter we saw vs Saunders or Smith? Probably not. This could be a slower and heavier Canelo who may not be able to maintain the work rate he is capable of at 168. So this is an important thing to consider, which could give Bivol an advantage if it goes the distance.

I tend to think that 168-lb Canelo has a much better chance of beating Bivol by decision regardless of Bivol's condition. Anotherwords, even if Bivol could make 168-lbs safely, or even if he fought 175-lb Bivol, I don't think it's a good idea for Canelo to put on an additional 5-7 lbs to move up as that will slow him down. So then the question becomes, well what weight is truly the most fair to both fighters?

Then the question becomes, is a catchweight actually a reasonable compromise here? Now again, I've made it clear that I don't like catchweights for Title Fights, so I'm not advocating for that. But if Canelo is better at 168-lbs, and if Bivol is better above 168-lbs, who considers himself a small 175-lber, then perhaps a catchweight would make sense here if we're really trying to be as fair as possible to both fighters.

Realistically, how drained or effective would Bivol be at 168-lb vs a 170-lb vs 172-lb catchweight? Now I don't think anyone wants to see a catchweight below Light Heavyweight, because of course it will only be used as an excuse for the Canelo haters to argue he likes fighting at catchweights and all that. But again, lets be real, if you think Bivol making 168-lb would drain him, then what about 170, 172, etc? Just for the sake of being as fair as possible to both fighters it makes sense despite the fact that I don't like catchweights for Title Fights.

What I don't want to see is a slow as molasses Canelo fighting Bivol at 175 and losing a decision then using the weight as an excuses. See I don't want to see any excuses being made either way. Not for Canelo, nor for Bivol.

I want to see the fight happen at a fair weight to both fighters so it produces a match that both fighters will be healthy and able to perform at their best. I want to see the Prime 168-lb Canelo we saw vs Saunders vs a healthy non-drained Bivol at whatever weight he can make safely. I don't want to see Bivol drained to a corpse like Dawson was vs Ward, and I don't want to see a heavy, slow as molasses 175-lb Canelo be a lesser version of himself than the version we saw vs Saunders.

So what the best weight here? I know Canelo's haters want to see it at 175 so Bivol has the advantage and has the best chance of winning. But is that really fair to Canelo? And if it happens at 175, if that were the case, should Canelo still weigh in closer to 168-lb so he doesn't put on excess weight and slow down like we saw vs Kovalev?

Even though I'm against catchweights for Title Fights, I think if we're honest a 170-lb or 172-lb is probably a fair compromise here so neither fighter has an inherent advantage. What do you think? And please resist the urge to go down the "Canelo is trying to drain Bivol" road because that's clearly not what's happening here given Bivol's statements about having no problem fighting at 168.

Lets keep it real and 100% here. No fanboyism here, Canelo haters, try to look at this objectively. And understand that I want to see a fair fight with no advantages for either fighter. That doesn't mean it has to be at 175 because Bivol has made it very clear he is a small 175-lb and has no problem making 168. So we can't ignore Bivol's statements about his willingness to fight at 168, but at the same time if there's reason to think that Bivol is miscalculating his ability to make 168 safely, then lets hear both sides of that.

The other aspect to keep in mind here is who has more to gain if the fight is at 168 or 175. If it's at 168, Bivol has more to gain because he'll be challenging for multiple titles at SMW. So there may be an incentive for Bivol to move down to 168 so he could become a two-division Champ and also a Unified Champ. But if it was at 175-lb, Bivol would only be defending his title and wouldn't be gaining any hardware by winning.

If Bivol managed to beat Canelo at 175, you could argue that only won because Canelo moved up and put on too much extra weight catering to Bivol. If 175-lb Canelo is not the same Canelo as 168-lb Canelo, if Canelo is slower at 175-lb and easier to outpoint and beat by decision like we saw vs Kovalev before Canelo came up with the dramatic late KO, then is it smart for Canelo to agree to 175 if Bivol is offering to fight him at 168?

I think we can all agree that Canelo would have a much harder time stopping Bivol at 168 or 175 than he did vs chinny, past prime Kovalev. I wonder if Bivol actually wants to move down to 168 rather than fight Canelo at 175 so he has an opportunity to pick up all Canelo's SMW's belts, that might be a big motivator for Bivol and why he is offering to make the fight at 168. What do you think? A lot of food for thought here. A lot of things to consider here as this fight may be on the verge of being made.

 

If it's at 175, then Canelo would need more time to prepare properly than Bivol would since Canelo would be moving up a weight division.

 

What do you make of Bivol's statements that he has no problem making 168, that he's a small Light Heavyweight, etc? With Bivol making it clear that he believes he can make 168 safely, why would the fight happen at 175 if both agree to 168?

Also do you think Bivol could be motivated at the prospect of becoming a unified Champ at SMW? Bivol has more to gain by dropping down to 168 if he can make that weight safely.

 

No, his natural weight right now is at 168-lb, not 175-lb.

 

I think it's hard to say how risky it is because it's an unknown at this point. He continues to claim that he can make it no problem. There must be a reason for him to say that. Bivol has more to gain by fighting Canelo at 168-lb, while Canelo has more to gain by fighting at 175-lb. But if Canelo moves up to 175-lb and beats Bivol, then he's probably going to just vacate the 175-lb title and drop back down to 168-lbs again like he did after he beat Kovalev because he'd have to choose between the multiple 168-lb titles and the one 175-lb title. But if Bivol drops down to 168-lb, makes it safely, beats Canelo at 168 becoming a unified 168-lb Champ, I doubt he'd vacate all those titles. In that scenario, Bivol would become the SMW King and would probably stay there and try to become undisputed at SMW right?

 

Ok so you're saying he walks around as a Light Heavyweight then sheds off some lbs in camp to make 168-lb.

And what about Bivol? What do you reckon he walks around as? Who's bigger? Who weighs more outside of camp if you had to guess? It seems to me that both Canelo and Bivol walk around at pretty much the same weight but the difference is Bivol doesn't have to cut weight because he fights at 175.

This surely is why Bivol and his team insist that he can make 168-lb safely. In the recent interview his promotor flat out says Team Bivol has a desire to make a Unification fight at 168.

If Bivol and Canelo are pretty much the same size and weight outside of camp then from the sounds of it, all Bivol would have to do is cut weight like Canelo does in camp to make 168-lb since they are starting from about the same weight heading into camp. For Bivol to make 175-lb, he probably just eats whatever he wants and doesn't even try to cut weight.

 

Hmmm do you think it's possible that Bivol just fights at 175 just because it's easier. He can fight at 175 and not have to train too hard in camp, not have to have a strict diet, not have to shed weight in training camp, etc.

Is it possible, and this is only speculation of course, that Bivol could actually be a better fighter at 168 than he is at 175? If he got a good nutritionist, got on a strict diet during camp, focused on shredding weight and coming in lean, mean and ripped at the weigh-in. Maybe Bivol feels like he could be better at 168 than he is at 175 because that will force him to shed the excess fat in camp and improve his hand and foot speed which he will need vs Canelo.