I see this fight going similar to Cotto-Judah. Cotto is a strong, skilled and tough fighter who brings the fight to you. Canelo's stamina is trash. He must train like a lazy man. He will not be able to hold up and will gas out. Then get stopped.
Im favouring Alverez in this fight but his stamina really could be a factor against him. If he wobbles, hurts or cuts Cotto early he is guna put everything into a stoppage and gas himself out, he wasnt far off gassed in his last fight early, so if that doesnt happen after around 5 or 6 rounds he could be in trouble. Cotto may win every round from then on.
The hardest prat to determine will be size. Canelo is not a big 154 lber and fought a fight at 147, but then again Cotto came up from 140 to 160. Its hard to tell whether Canelos size will give him an advantage in reach or taking punches
Cotto will lose by KO. He's not going to survive. Canelo is too young and strong for him at this point. I'm rooting for Cotto but I doubt he'll win. I give him 30% chance.