I see Basilio getting caught. Carmen opened up pretty wide when his game was going. Julian was quick to the mark once the mark was exposed. I see him catching Carmen before either 12 or 15.
Although Basilio is the better fighter overall, he was not afraid to go to war. This is a bad idea against the considerably larger and harder punching Jackson.
Basilio proved more often than 75% of all fighters that he could come out on top in a WAR. Jackson tended not to. Basilio by stoppage in middle to late rounds.