Chad DAWSON v. Adrian DIACONU ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread

The fight is bound to happen, so we might as well get stuck in.


Which are these fighters' strengths and weaknesses?

How do they fight, generally?

Which strategy do you think each will most likely employ, this time around?

What would it take for each to win?

How will the fight most likely play out?

Who will win?

 

Which are these fighters' strengths and weaknesses?

Dawson is unbeaten. Dropped by Adamek. Wonderfully complete, polished and versatile. Excellent, intelligent boxer, great footwork, speed and distance; throws fairly hard, very accurate punches, very nice combinations; shows much economy of style. Superior foot positoning. Tall. However, his defence isn't the best; nor is his chin. Mentally, not the strongest.

Diaconu is unbeaten. Good, hard, accurate puncher; strikes decisively; unpredictable. Driven and higly motivated. Mentally strong, brave risk taker. Good head movement. However, he is small, his footwork is poor, he is not a very good boxer and lacks stamina; fairly limited.

How do they fight, generally?

Dawson is southpaw. He boxes a lot, like an elegant fencer, keeping great distance, using his jab very well to keep opponents at bay, lunging very fast to the body with the jab, and setting up nice one-two's, before throwing nice combinations. Jabs to keep his distance, taking advantage of his height very well. After punching or jabbing, he retreats straight away, using backward movement as his main means of defense. Usually beats opponents to the punch. Loves to hit to the body and does so effectively. Throws very nice, precise combinations. Defends either by counterpunching or by moving backwards or around the ring, before going on the counterattack, furiously, decisively. Tends to get into a grove quickly and gainst confidence if the opponent boxes with him. His relative lack of mental strength makes him lose concentration in the last quarter. His defense lets him down a bit in the last quarter. He can be hit by a good right. He doesn't deal with pressure and an aggressive opponent very well in the last quarter. If his chin is checked, he will struggle and aim simply to survive. He is not easy to finish, though, even when he is in trouble.
His great balance, excellent footwork and superior foot positioning allows him much economy of movement and purpose...You are crazy to try an box with him...not even Adamek could do it effectively.

Diaconu used to concentrate on ripping an opponent's head off and nothing else. Now, he boxes more and is better for it. He keeps a tight guard, and moves forward slouched over his gloves, waiting to pounce. His footwork is not the best so he relies on rushing his opponent and pushing him backwards. Doesn't jab enough, defending with his gloves. When he does jab, he goes straight for the head. Moves his head when defending and jumps backwards, to defend. Throws very effective one-twos to the head when he comes forward. Headhunts continuously and then jumps back. Has a decent left hook. Every punch he throws has a purpose - that of hitting his opponent's head. Moves his head well inside, avoiding punches well, headhunting and moving his head, headhunting and moving his head. Attacks explosively and sustains the pressure well, bravely. Tends to tire in the later rounds. Lacks stamina. Never been in big trouble so hard to say how he would react.

Which strategy do you think each will most likely employ?

I think Dawson will try to box the way he boxed against Adamek, establishing a big lead on the cards. He will be aware of he danger that Diaconu represents so he will defend better with his gloves while using his great footwork to get him out of trouble. He will jab a lot and go to the body a lot, more than against Adamek, lunging in and out, quickly, moving more, using his height advantage to keep his distance. He will aim to punish Diaconu and stop him on a cut or TKO him after jabbing him an outboxing him. He will try to do this early, before he loses his concentration and is let down by his lack of mental strength.

I think Diaconu will try to stay out away from Dawson's jab as much as possible, keeping a very tight guard and moving his head more when working his way inside. He will duck as he goes inside, rushing Dawson. and then start headhunting as usual. He will not want to box or counterpunch at all. He will take big risks to win an early stoppage but if Dawson looks in control from the very beginning he will bide his time, looking to stay out of trouble and pouncing whenever he sees an opening, looking for Dawson to start losing concentration towards the last quarter, when he is more likely to make mistakes.

What would it take for each to win? What would they have to do to win?

Dawson will have to prove his chin is very good to beat Diaconu. He will get tested and he won't have the luxury of recovering because Diaconu will be relentless. He will have to improve his glove defence and his head movement agains the ropes. He will have to improve his concentration and focus, to avoid all mistakes, especially in the latter rounds.

Diaconu will have to improve his footwork and balance a lot. He would have to have an even better head movement against Dawson. He must work on his speed and explosiveness a lot. He will have to take big risks and maintain the pressure once he hurts Dawson. He has to pounce and put it all on the line, headhunting and moving his head, headhunting and moving his head, punching hard, precisely until the ref stops the fight.

How will the fight most likely play out?

Dawson's qualities and intelligence in the ring should prove much too good for limited Diaconu. The versatile, precise punching Dawson will use his height advantage very well over the clumsy Diaconu. Diaconu's footwork is no way close to being good enough to allow him to compete. He will crouch an take guard agains the jabs that keep flying in as Dawson dances around him...Dawson will just rip Diaconu up when he tries to box...He will open his tight guard with his wonderful uppercuts. He will move quickly backwards out of the way every time Diaconu pounces or rushes him, punishing him as he comes in, turning him and hitting to the body, sapping Diaconu's strength like a bullfighter does with a charging bull.

After a couple of rounds in which he is completely outboxed and hit again and again, Diaconu will make a move...if not for any other reason but desperation. He will pounce, taking a big risk.

If he gets past the jab and past Dawson's punches and bullies him somehow agains the ropes, he will have to be very cool, very decisive and very lucky - he will not get more than a couple of seconds at best to have a go before Dawson is out again, dancing around him, punishing him. It's his only chance and he knows it.

But Dawson will expect it...he will hit back against the ropes and hit Diaconu to the body, turn him and stab him again and again. I cannot see the referee letting this go on for too long. If Diaconu doesn't finish Dawson when he has that very small chance, having rushed him agains the ropes, he will be stopped himself. 9/10 Dawson stops him as he comes in, driving. Diaconu simply cannot take it for 12 rounds...he will have a go and most likely pay for it.

However, if Dawson doesn't improve his defence and doesn't maintain his concentration at all times, Diaconu will hurt him. And if Diaconu hurts him, he will stop him too, there can be little doubt about that.
I cannot see this go to the cards. Diaconu will play it all on one card and either stop Dawson or get stopped in the process.

Who will win?

70% chance: Dawson TKO (9 or under)
20% chance: Diaconu TKO (6 or under)
10% chance: Dawson UD 120-108

 

Mate...I am pretty much a beginner...don't expect too much of me...I gave it my best shot, though......I am looking forward to reading the proper analysis of the analysts: the stuff that not everyone sees and appreciates...

 

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
<--------------------------------------:deal