Dawson is much faster but he just isn't active enough to keep Hopkins off of him and he has mental lapses. Pascal easily got in his head without effort and Hopkins is a master at mindgames so mentally this fight favors Hopkins and the mental aspect of boxing is about 75% so I can see Hopkins pulling this off. It will start boring but Hopkins will press more and more as time goes on.
Gotta give Hopkins kudos for taking this fight, some thought he was ducking Dawson and would continue to do so. Hopkins is now the champion and is the bigger draw so he really has nothing too gain for taking on such a dangerous opponent but once again Hopkins shows that even at this late stage in his career he is still looking to challenge himself. While Hopkins is riding high over his win from Pascal, Dawson is a much more dangerous opponent. Dawson hasn't looked too great recently, but remember this is the guy who easily out boxed Adamek. Dawson has shown in the past the hand speed, agility and workrate to give this faded Hopkins the toughest fight since Calzaghe. If both fight at their best I see Dawson's workrate and speed being enough to win on points. I would love it if Hopkins could pull off another great win but I have my doubts.