I voted Dawson by UD. He just boxes the hell out of Kelly Pavlik, all contingent on whether he can make 168lbs in healthy fashion.
Two great fighters BUT.. I see Chad beating Kelly though,He will be too much for Pavlik in my opinion Dawsons not stopping Pavlik,i dont see that happening,I think he would win a wide UD
If Dawson even dares try to drain himself and come all the way down to 160 to fight Pavlik... Kelly would give him a Gary Lockett beatdown,Maybe worse. Thats just suicide.
Dawson 10 rounds to two, or something close to that. Chad would have to survive some scary moments in the middle-late rounds. All in all Bad Chad is a stylsitic nightmare for Pavlik, and Pavlik would not have the kind of size/strength advantages he would need to over come the stylisitic disadvantages.
Even a guy who has Pavlik's **** in his ass missed the fact that Dawson would be dead at 168. Sure he "says" he can get down to that, but I don't believe it. He'd likely pull a Mayweather (show up at 172-173) and just hope Pavlik's camp doesn't stop it. If he actually showed up at 168 Kelly would KO him as would any decent fighter.