Dawson, even down at 168, a WIDE UD, about 10-2. Dawson may score a few knockdowns but he won't open up enough to go for the KO unless he's just landing everything at will with nothing coming back.
Dawson may be a bit drained at 168. He may have to give some rounds away as a result, but I still see him picking up the UD against Pav.
I wouldn't be shocked if this fight ended rather early. Dawson is way too quick, strong and his power would be even more effective against Kelly ( who would be moving up in weight). Mismatch
No way Dawson gets down to 168, he walks around at 197. If he actually managed to drain himself that badly, a brisk wind would KO him. If Pavlik did weigh in at 185 in his last camp, and if he looked great, why not fight Dawson at LH? Probably because he would get handled.