It wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if Bisping won. If he does win it will be on points. But I am of course picking Chael.
I'm going to be really surprised if Bisping is able to do anything much at all to score points in this fight. Really surprised. I think quite simply, Chael will "Out-Man" Bisping, much like Hendo did. He will look at him across the cage with absolute no fear or respect for his ability to hurt him and just own him. Hendo did it with his right hand, Chael will do it with GnP. I see Chael taking Bisping down and beating on him, and if it gets stood back up, he will just do it again. Also, Bisping looked kinda tired at the end of the Mayhem fight, don't be surprised if he is sucking air in the 3rd round and gets stopped.
For the only, or possibly there have been a few times, you and I are pretty much in agreement. I think that Sonnen can stop him, but it's clearly not guaranteed. But yeah, it's not a overly difficult fight for Sonnen. While it won't be "easy," it'll definitely be an easier fight than had he still been scheduled against Munoz.