Very good analysis. I disagree with you about Chagaev's durability; my guess is that Chagaev has a rock chin. I don't think he's ever been down as pro, and he has a very compact physique. I think Chagaev is a better puncher than you give him credit for, but of course it's doubtful that he'll ever get to score cleanly with his power punches against Vlad. Your point about Chagaev's ring rust is interesting as well. My understanding is that Chagaev didn't look that good against Skelton and Drummond. Those fights may be hints that Chagaev isn't at his best these days. Who knows.
I see Chagaev having two chances in this fight. He will have an early chance if he is very aggressive and lands his straight left clean. I think to fatigue Wlad he is going to have to lay a lot of pressure on wlad early in the fight and at least tag him with some shots that make wlad hazy. I think Wlad will then start winning rounds and if Chagaev doesnt get cut he will be there around rd 9 to apply some more pressure when wlad is fatigued and try to take him out late. I dont think this fight is a forgone conclusion like most who think this will be ibragimov 2. Wlad certainly has matured as a fighter and frankly, it is possible that wlad controls him all fight long. Chagaev is going to have to be very agressive.
Well, he did fight Virchis who is a heavy handed puncher but wlad combines raw power, speed and technique as well as anyone today. I just think he is in a different class when it comes to one-punch power. So I consider everyone untested in that respect when they step up to Wlad. I think this is an interesting pt. because if Wlad's power bothers Chagaev early, he probably stops coming forward and has no chance. His reaction to the punches is what im interested in. I think he can take a few moster shots though for sure. As for his power, he does have a heavy left hand but his lack of right hand power lowers him imo as a puncher. It is true he looked very sluggish against Drummond which is to be expected considering how infrequent he's fought since April 07. He looked decent against Skelton though. It's just such a huge step up, he's gonna have to step his game up several levels if he wants to be competitive. i agree. As a Wlad fan, I want to see a dominant and impressive performance as this is a legacy fight that could earn him recognition as the linear and legit hw champ. However, I think Chagaev has enough skill, awkwardness and saavy to take a few rounds the first 1/2 of the fight. I see Wlad dominating the second half.
Yes. this is his only chance and I just don't see that type of aggression in his past fights against his top opponents. He's much more of a patient boxer...Then again, he's got to know it's his only chance. He can't stay at distance with Wlad. Either that or he's in it for a final payday. I guess we'll find out. Like you said, I think his only chance is if Wlad gets fatigued later and Chagaev is able to take advantage. But imo, Chagaev has the stamina questions coming in. He's the one coming off injuries, illnesses and long periods of inactivity. And like I said, Wlad is gonna make him move a lot.
Vlad does not really have an stamina problem. The Brewster fight was a fluke, in that fight he was tired after the first round. After the fight doctors were concerned about Vlad going into a diabetic coma from extremely high blood sugar. Two sets of blood/urine test disappeared and MRI showed zero signs of concussion, etc. Vlad proved how superior he was to Brewster in the rematch which Don King never allowed. It was only after Brewster lost his title did he give rematch. The Puritty fight was when Vlad was very young, his towel threw out the towel in the 11th round because Vlad did not train well, was acting as promoter of fight, etc., Vlad came back to the the first to stop Axel Schultz, something Foreman could not do. Vlad went 12 rounds Vs. Byrd without any trouble not to mention other fighters. (Vlad does not and never has had a blood sugar problem, but some chemicals can cause it.)
Chagaev was hurt by a one-two from Drummond. I think if Wlad throws the right hand early and wobbles him, then Chagaev could be down and out at any point in the fight. Also Virchis says that Chagaev is a very stubborn fella in the ring. He keeps his grit no matter what and always fights to win.
Chagaev has one advantage because Wladimir will have to adjust to a southpaw stance. Wladimir was practicing for an orthodox fighter. He has 2 weeks to get ready for a southpaw. I wonder if his camp will bring Byrd and Thompson like they did for the Vitali v Gomez fight. Anyways, we have a better fight than the original one.
Ever since the Sanders debacle, people think every southpaw who can punch a little will beat Wlad. Sanders was 6'4, had excellent footspeed and a mentally underprepared Wlad in front of him. Chagaev is not particularly fast. Sanders didn't KO Wlad with one punch, he was able to get him repeatadly. It is very doubtful that would happen with today's version of Wlad. Chagaev might make it a difficult fight for Wlad if he crouches to avoid being hit like Iggy, but the chanced of him KO'ing Wlad are very slim.
chagaev is well trained right now and he probally didnt even wanna fight that russina bum anyway. He already stated before the drummond fight he want to fight the klitties so.... i think this is a great chance for chagaev to come up and beat wlad. but if wald just sits there and dosent pull the trigger, chageav will. I can see a slow moving fight untill the 5-6 round and wlad will get rock with bombs. i was alway a fan of chagaev but injuries and **** made him not perform well. Im hoping this is his chancebut he hasnt got a ko in like 4 fights so i can see this going the distance.
Sedric Fields in their first 8 round fight and to pull out all stops to lose in the last round, when he discovered he was ahead....Cedric was there as live sparing partner...his job and not to win. Sedric managed to loose much better in the rematch. Chin is Chagaev's best point. the often throws a sweeping left (left hander)...It don't get high enough to be a haymaker.....