Champions who breached the colour line,how expected were the outcomes?

In order to better understand the historical impact of the colour line, I thought it might be helpful to look at the cases where it was breached. We often speculate what would have happened if certain champions had not drawn the colour bar, so lets pretend that the ones who breached it held to it, and see how our expectations would have matched up to the outcomes. Assume:

Frank Erne draws the colour line against Joe Gans.

Rube Ferns draws the colour line against Joe Walcott.

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Tommy Burns draws the colour line against Jack Johnson.

Georges Carpentier draws the colour line against Battling Siki.

Harry Greb draws the colour line against Tiger Flowers.

Bob Olin draws the colour line against John Henry Lewis.

So two questions:

• In which of those fights would you have expected the challenger to win, if you did not have the actual fight as a guideline.
• How would it have impacted the standing of the champion who drew the colour line.
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Worth thinking about guys.