Changing My Pick on Pacquiao vs Mayweather after Pac-Margo

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by paulfv, Nov 15, 2010.


  1. paulfv

    paulfv Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Even though I don't think this bout will ever happen (because Floyd Mayweather, understandably, doesn't want it to happen; see more about this and the discussion of the 7-day cutoff date for blood testing here: http://bit.ly/cAZDgN), I have still been forced to change my pick in the hypothetical matchup of Pacquiao vs Mayweather following Pacquiao's domination of Antonio Margarito, a fighter who weighed around 17 pounds more than Pacquiao on fight night.

    Floyd will turn 34 years old in around 3 months. He is not the fighter he once was when he was a younger and lighter man. His footwork is not as fluid, he doesn't punch in combination much any longer. To make up for this, though, he has gotten considerably bulkier (ask Juan Manuel Marquez about that) and he has been more willing to engage in toe-to-toe exchanges (like those against Shane Mosley) than he once was.

    Given their relative workrates and sizes at this point in their careers, I felt as though Mayweather's best chance at beating Pacquiao would be by knockout or a decision win in which Pacquiao is floored several times.

    After watching Pacquiao take huge shots from Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey and Margarito, though, I can't see Mayweather knocking out Pacquiao any longer. It's not impossible, of course -- he could get a punch in that the smaller Filipino doesn't see coming, or a Hatton-type "check hook" -- but I no longer believe this is a likely outcome.

    Margarito landed three vicious body shots in a row to Pacquiao in the 6th round of Saturday's fight. Pacquiao took them, and didn't even go down. Nor did he go down when Cotto landed some solid shots in the 4th round of that bout, or when Clottey hit him with big uppercuts late in their match-up.

    The main advantages Mayweather has over Pacquiao currently are size and defensive ability. The primary disadvantages Mayweather has are workrate and combination punching. The speed factor we'll call a draw.

    Floyd's speed and length (5'8", 72" reach), while considerable, are reasonably reproduced when Pacquiao spars with Amir Khan (5'10", 71" reach). Khan is, of course, nowhere close to the level of Mayweather at this point in their careers, but he is likely as fast or faster than Floyd is at this point in time.

    I do think Floyd's size and length would be an issue for Pacquiao (5'6.5", 67" reach). But I don't think it would be enough to beat Pacquiao now.

    I think Pac's next fight is likely to be Mosley.
     
  2. el mosquito

    el mosquito Boxing Addict banned

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    god i hope not for mosley's sake
     
  3. Marcelo

    Marcelo Guest

    mosley's never been koed!! that's the motivation for pac to achieve.
     
  4. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Loyal Member Full Member

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    Mayweather by decision.
     
  5. unsigned_userv2

    unsigned_userv2 Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Let's not forget that Pac was the heavy favourite, and did exactly what most people predicted (albeit not that level of damage). Stylistically there's nothing in common. Margarito doesn't even have a style that imposes his size on his opponent.

    1. His footwork is as good as ever. The reason he doesn't bop around like he used to, is he's reached a stage where he tries to expend as less energy as possible; let them throw the first and counter when they're out of position. James Toney was a master at it, and he has never been that quick. I will agree the age factor may have some bearing, but for a 34 year old he will still be in tremendous shape. May is a known gym rat.

    2. Margs and Cotto were never known as one-punch punchers (Margs = accumalation, Cotto = combos to the body), and simply put they couldn't land enough of their heavy shots to make a difference. Both were diffused quite early.

    3. He stood toe-to-toe as that was the most appropriate strategy. Mosley just couldn't land in close, so there was no reason to dance around the ring making him lunge in or staying out of range. Most people actually predicted Floyd to do the complete opposite and dance and avoid any close exchanges.

    4. I think Floyd's speed has been grossly overrated simply due to the fact he is so accurate. Yes, May does have phenomenal defensive capabilities, but the real advantage is his ability to maintain the perfect distance to counter as Pac lunges in. The reason Marquez found it easier to deal with Pacquiao's speed and aggresiveness, is that Pac is very methodical and fights at the same rhythm everytime; put in a good jab to disrupt his rhythm and side-to-side and backwards movement will go a long way towards winning the fight.


    I don't think either one can KO the other, but I'm still sitting with a decision to Mayweather.....however the longer he is inactive the greater Pacquiao's chances become.
     
  6. paulfv

    paulfv Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Excellent post, thanks! :good
     
  7. BigBone

    BigBone Boxing Addict Full Member

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    You still have to hit Floyd. Pac got hit 2.5 times more than Floyd the last time around. There are so many opportunites to hit Pac he just hits you back with twice the amount if you have speed disparity and D-holes. Floyd is very hard to hit, quick to adapt and very accurate. JMM, who doesn't have Floyd's defense nor physical tools, still outlanded Pac and you just can't go all out vs. a master counterpuncher.
     
  8. paulfv

    paulfv Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    This is true. But it's not as hard to hit Floyd as it once was (Mosley), and even if Pac is hitting Floyd's gloves, he's still going to rack up points because of workrate (like Calzaghe). This is why I think the lack of combination punching would hurt Floyd.

    Pac isn't a Calzaghe-level pressure fighter, but he still threw like 1070 punches against Margarito. And it changed how Margo fought, Pac's workrate and speed. When has Margo ever been that tentative in a fight? I can't remember seeing that before, where Margo threw so few punches.
     
  9. ???

    ??? Active Member Full Member

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    Pac got hit a lot and yet he continued to throw/land lots of meaningful punches. What I believe concerns Floyd is that he relies on his counters discouraging his opponent and lowering their output. The punishment Manny is able to absorb and not be deterred is what makes the risk too high for Floyd.
     
  10. BigBone

    BigBone Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Floyd doesn't lack combination punching, sharp-shooting is simply enough for him most of the time, and thinks 'why go 2-3-4'? (we ask the same question). Floyd dominated all but one round vs. Mosley and adapted super-fast following the difficult moments. In comparison, Pac still had to fight through fire after the scary 6th, and that's definitely something I took note of. Don't underestimate Floyd adaptability, maybe there would be a slight edge for Pac after 6, but Mayweather rarely lost a ringle round in the 2nd half, while Pacquiao lost many.

    With that said, I do agree that this fight is getting more and more in Pac's favor, I'm just not sure we reached the point of turnaround - or that we ever will.
     
  11. igotJUIC3

    igotJUIC3 Boxing Junkie banned

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    striking first....Pac struck first all night this will negate alot of what a fighter will do and fukk their rhthym up.

    now flip it.....Pac/Floyd......Floyd will keep proper range for himself to always be in striking distance...Pac will not be in his comfortable striking distance because Floyd will not be the target like Cotto,Margo, CLottey, DLH, Hatton...all these fighters pressed and stayed in Pac's range and allowed Pac to strike first...none of these fighters have the speed, reflexes, or countering ability to offset Pac when he strikes first and unleashes those combos.

    Floyd on the other hand will use his reach advantage meaning Floyd can dart in with a potshot first and TRUST me when i tell you if he lands or not he will A) HOLD or B) Give Pac a shove which knocks him off balance or out of position to throw....Floyd does this ALL THE TIME....this cuts workrate down and resets the fighters rhthym.

    Now Pac as great as he is will no doubt get opportunities to strike....however difference is when he does Floyd's defense is great and so is his countering ability and so is his reflexes and speed. So when Pac does dart in first to get off he wont be all that effective and ontop of that FLoyd will interupt combos with precise counter shots and move or hold.

    Pac simply can not expect to fight like he has been fighting with Floyd its a whole other realm....i'd be concerned for Pac because he has fought fighters who are all to willing to stay in his range for quite some time now im not sure how he will react to someone who wont do that and who will make him Pay for mistakes and over aggresiveness
     
  12. angelos

    angelos Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Excellent Post. Thats why ive changed my opinon from 60-20 for Mayweather 3 years ago into a 52-48 PAC today. Floyd has already lost a lot of step compared to his younger years.
    And hoping Pac wont be fighting Shane. Or he will be accused again of beating over the hill fighters.
     
  13. unsigned_userv2

    unsigned_userv2 Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Having a shot land on you during their offensive is not as discouraging as you getting hit everytime you launch any type of offense. In fact if the opponent can only land one punch while they go all out with a big combination, it gives the fighter confidence not discouragement.

    Ask De La Hoya or Clottey why they stopped opening up against Pacquiao.
     
  14. Silver

    Silver The Champ is Here Full Member

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    why are people using what happen to margo, to compare pac and mayweather? Margarito is absolutely nothing like mayweather and is not as good. margo had size on pac but if you know boxing, you know size only cannot win you fights against the very best fighters.

    style makes fights and mayweathesr style and margos style are night and day.
     
  15. Xerant

    Xerant Gotta Hate negociations! Full Member

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    Mayweather by sweet UD. Pac will bring the best outta him