Chavez Jr needs to come in 3 pounds heavy

He is going to hydrate 25 pounds regardless of what weight he comes in at.

 

Agree. It's the last few lbs that kill a fighter. If he smashes Canelo he can write his own cheques.

 

Agreed. On a mathematical basis:

Let's assume:
- winning the fight is worth $40 million to Chavez Jr, because he suddenly becomes a cash cow. Rematch might be worth $20 million already + endorsements, + better chance and share of other potential superfights or a trilogy if he lost the rematch.
- coming in three pounds heavier gives him 10% extra chance to win.

Then he stands to gain, on average, $1 million from coming in overweight.

 

Does Jr. have the discipline to do that?
I just don't see it.

 

Good idea. That's approximately 4 extra beef chimichangas that he can eat on the morning of
the weigh in. Will make all the difference against El Pollo Amarillo.

 

You're assuming Chavez can beat Canelo at 168. I am not convinced that it is possible, Jr is very crude.

 

I'd say come in at 165.5 if anything. I don't think he's going to want to sacrifice too much of his financial gain in this situation. He's just got to get his **** together a little earlier and monitor his weight during camp, that way he doesn't overtrain and can make the weight healthy. He's got enough time to get it done.

 

I think that Canelo is used to bullying much smaller guys and that if Chavez comes in fit and works the body early, Alvarez will be dying later in the fight. No doubt Saul has more skills but I don't think he has the power to dent Chavez' chin. I reckon if Junior plays this right he can wear Canelo down and give him a beating late.

 

Canelo's notoriously poor stamina is a direct result of his ungodly weight cutting. At 164.5, Canelo will be throwing 100 punches a round if need be, and will be fresh all throughout the fight. He may not have the one shot knockout power to hurt Chavez but he certainly can do damage through sheer connect rate. Jr is very easy to hit and his chin resource is somewhat depleted after Fonfara and Martinez used it for target practice.

You will see. Canelo is going to absolutely destroy Jr. A small great boxer usually beats an average big boxer.

 

If that's the case Junior may have problems.

 

Jr's only hope is to turn it into a long distance shootout. He needs to be light on his feet, move a lot and frustrate Canelo with a quick one two. Neither one of them has good footwork so it is possible to pull off if Jr trains as hard as his dad used to.

 

I'm not sure that this would be a great idea given Alvarez' counterpunching ability and upper body movement? Then again, if you're right and Canelo shows up with a full gas tank, mixing it up close won't be fun either. Even if Chavez outboxes him at range, can he beat Canelo's judges?