I can't fault most of your post, but I will make a couple of points here. You argue that Golotta would have beaten Carnera based on the Bowe fights. Couldn't they be used to argue that Golotta would have blown it against Carnera, as he did in so many fights? Resumes don't win fights, but they are often an indicator of how a fighter is likely to perform. Golotta is an arch underachiever, and Carnera is an arch overachiever!
Yes, the issue of Golota's mental instability has to be a factor in any fight, but it's not really any fun to argue about what is essentially a get out of jail free card for any opponent skilful and/or resilient enough to take Golota into the later rounds, is it? Personally, I'd prefer to argue from the standpoint of skills and physical attributes, and leave the issue of DQ's as something of a caveat in any talk of a Golota victory. Of course, resumes can play a part in any analysis of a H2H provided they're treated with a dispassionate and analytical eye, but too often (in my experience anyway) they're used as a handy points scorer in which name value (a vague and subjective thing) overrides actual fact- and observation-based debate. In any case, Carnera never fought anyone like Golota, so there's a limited amount of data we can draw from his past performances.
I would not characterize Golotta's instability as "a get out of jail free card", which makes it a rare example. It seems to have delivered far more often than not, when he was matched against a top ten ranked opponent! The question is not so much when it bailed somebody out, as when it didn't!
Hmm, I don't know. Golota always seemed one setback away from a screw up. I remember him biting a journeyman's ear back in the day because he was taking longer to dismantle than usual, or managed to briefly stun him or something. It's a very pertinent point to consider when discussing Golota's chances versus anyone; it just tends to shut discussion down, since it can come at literally any point for any reason against anyone. I would say it becomes more of a factor against guys with the resiliency to withstand his assaults, or the power to hurt him, though. Does Carnera fall into that latter bracket? And does he have the skill and mindset to bomb Golota out, or is he more likely to hang back and try to box?