I think it's a pick'em fight that can go either way, and since I won't be the least bit surprised should this end in a draw, I'm going with that. Fans on both sides will claim their man should have won, but since nobody will be able to claim robbery, it will be a satisfactory outcome leading to a division-defining trilogy. :smoke
Fair play to Senya though for going for broke. I like it.* * As long as he's not one of these 'He would have won if..." if Kessler does lose.
Styles thing. Calzaghe will have major trouble getting inside past the jab and Kessler's footwork, and even in close he won't have any significant advantage, due to Kessler's strength and uppercuts. Calzaghe's age will add to his disadvantage too. He's not the same fighter anymore (Lacy was never that good, I was saying that long before Calzaghe dismantled him).
This is a good post! But what about Kessler's come ahead style combined with Joe's speed? I don't think in this situation it's too hard to get in by the jab - unless you are right about Joe falling off. Why can't Joe be to fast for Kessler?
Kessler's jab is exceptionally good, I'd rank it Top 3 best jabs of all time. Calzaghe's footwork is not tricky or quick enough to keep getting past it successfully, in my opinion. And on the outside he has no chance to win this fight. He shouldn't hope to have Kessler winded by late rounds either, as Mikkel showed he could keep firing quicks jabs and combos for 12 rounds or even increase the workrate gradually toward late rounds.
I think we have certainly identified where the fight will be decided. But we disagree on the outcome. I pick Calzaghe, I think the opening six might be very close, but I actually believe that Joe is a slightly better fighter and down the stretch he will prove this. He'll be quick enough to do what you say he can't and consistantly. Fun to argue in Classic about a fight that's actually going to happen! Top 3 of all time!? Behave yourself...
Calzaghe doesn't have enough upper body movement either, he relies on footwork and angles to get in close. Kessler will keep firing his jab all night long at distance, and steps back or to the side to get in proper range for a counter to Calzaghe's rushes, right cross or left hook to the head, or a one-two if Calzaghe lingers for a second at mid-range. Yes, his jab is top 3 of all time, easily. He's that good. It's hard to argue who's a better fighter, due to completely different styles. Against prime Jones, for example, I'd give Kessler better chances to make the fight closer (still losing it, though), than Calzaghe. Today's Jones has no chance vs. Kessler, but I'd give him chances vs. Calzaghe.
I think you are underestimating Joe's handspeed and overestimating Kessler's jab. But we'll see I guess. I don't think that Kessler is neccesarily smart enough to avoid being drawn either. You are overconfident given that it's a big, big step up for Kessler in front of 55,000 bias fans.
top 3 of all time seems a ridiculous and random number to throw about. We've never even seen Kessler in with another good jabber for gods sake. Kessler's hands are sloooow.
While Calzaghe is older, he is in great shape and as far as I know has not had a major injury set back or substance abuse problem. Why do you say he isn't the same fighter anymore? I agree that Kessler has a nice jab and nice footwork, but Joe seems to be a bit faster and hits hard enough to get respect for sure. I can't see Kessler catching Clazaghe with an uppercut, unless Clazaghe gets caught on the ropes. To date no man has come close to out boxing Clazaghe. Great boxers with a lot of speed, and a good chin are very hard to beat.
And Holmes or Liston proved their jab against somebody? I've seen enough boxing footage to compare, and Kessler is that good, like I said. Sharpness, accuracy, speed, frequency, angles, ability to change it into left hook, ability to control the fight with it, to put the body into it to do serious damage with every jab that lands or to cut the face of opponent, ability to vary range-finding and on-target jabs both to confuse the opponent and to not waste energy with jabs that have little chance to land.
I love this match-up, hopefully it will live up to its potential. While being close to an even match, I clearly favor Kessler in this one. Kessler has a beautiful, straight, crisp, 1-2. I think he outpoints Calzaghe with it. I think Joe is the more complete fighter and has a clear advantage in handspeed, but I personally feel with his age and the styles they both employ I gotta go with Kessler. One concern with Kessler would be that he doesn't come in too tight or has trouble on the big stage. If he comes in like that Calzaghe will take him apart. Terrific match with Kessler winning by UD.