Pro fighters tend not to miss stationary targets. Joe is hard to hit because he is so quick and because he is often positioned properly. Joe has never been outjabbed despite the fact that he is not a prolific jabber. Why do you think this is?
I viewed a few highlights of Kessler vs that German champion (forgot his name, short stocky guy with a huge nose) and noticed that he tends to drop his hands a bit during and after jabbing... does he do this more often? By the way, Senya, how much money have you bet on Kessler? If i was as confident as you were, i would put a lot of money down.
against the greatest opponent Lacy (for JC) and Mundine (for MK) who through more punches, consider Calzaghe threw over 1000 punches and had a high success rate heck even use Andrade if the shoe fits
If Joe can achieve that kind of workrate he's an almost guaranteed winnner. I can't see him being allowed to work like that though.
You can't use Lacy's fight as a measuring stick. Lacy was as open to punches as can possibly be in that one. Returning to that Robin Reid fight (I scored it for Reid by 2 points). Calzaghe 214/618 (34%) Reid 220/497 (44%) And Reid had nowhere near the punching sharpness and accuracy of Kessler, with his wide looping hooks (a lot of them were swings), yet he landed I think about a hundred of right hooks/swings to the head of Calzaghe, Joe was completely open to those punches.
Watch the Reid fight again. Calzaghe has a good jab actually, he just rarely uses it. But my problem and my question is, like I said, I need to see actual examples where he faced a good jabber and showed his skills against that punch. As I don't know any examples, I can only evaluate his defensive stance, head and upper body movement, hands position, and I don't see him doing too well in that. He's too open and doesn't have enough head/body movement, but uses angles of attack and footwork to close or break the distance and thus avoid getting punched. This shouldn't be working too well against Kessler, in my opinion.
I think i'll pass! Got a house full coming tonight and I don't want to be on a downer... Yes. He is able, but not prolific. Much of what you say is true. But i'm not about to throw out everything Calzaghe has achieved agaisnt modest jabbers because Kessler is a very good one (if Kessler is indeed one of the top 3 jabbers of all time, Cal would lose tonight - I just don't see it that way). There's nowhere to go now apart from to retread old ground, but I consider Calzaghe a swift and clever mover who is almost always ready to punch on moving. I expect him to hit Kessler I expect him to counter the jab, and even if Kessler is scoring I expect the toll to be to high for Kessler to continue to commit to it. I expect him to come to use it less and less as the fight progresses. I am not actually THAT worried about the Kessler jab, I'm more worried about the second part of that equation, the right hand. If Kessler wins I think it will be that punch that does most of the damage. In short, I think you underestimate Calzaghe as a mover (taking into account his set status on moving) and overestimate Kessler as a jabber. Are you able to watch the fight Senya?
Alas, no, I won't be able to see it. It's only on pay-for channel, which I don't have. For Calzaghe's jab, I advise to watch 3rd round of fight vs McIntyre, excellent work, both for scoring and setting up combinations. Although McIntyre was, of course, very inferior opponent.
If Calzaghe keeps his aggressiveness after he tastes the first several hard punches from Kessler, then it will indeed be a thing to seriously worry about. But I think Calzaghe will be more cautious than that, he knows about the hole in his defence for right hand to the head, and he'll be doing everything to avoid getting hit with it, by fighting on the defensive and trying to counter-punch, instead of swarming and brawling. But if he's too brave for his own good, then indeed, the most likely scenario will be him getting stopped.
I'll step up and say this - Senya is going way against the odds here and predicting Kessler to win handily. He's in the minority. Caz is the small but definite fave and Senya has thrown caution to the wind and taken the bull by the horns. If he turns out to be right i for one will be giving very big kudo's to the man. Of course if he's wrong, well that opens up a very different tin of worms. I look forward to fight actually.
i dont understand this at all, gardner did beat mike tyson? maybe im missing something but that post is confusing me