I don't know myself I'm finding it hard to pick but the more I watch Kovalev the more impressed I am and I'm not sure he will fade down the stetch like many are predicting.
Its either Kovalev by KO between rounds 1-6 or Clev wins a tight one on points. I think Kovalev hurts him early and gets a stoppage in the first half of the fight. Chakhkiev who was also a hyped up Russian dominated the early rounds (including a KD) vs Polish CW champion Wlodarczyk but then gassed badly and got dropped 3 times and stopped. I think Cleverly's best chance of winning is if Kovalev has stamina issues later on in the fight. Kovalev looks a much better boxer overall than Chakhkiev did though and might take a punch a bit better as well.
Kovalev KO/TKO victory. But I wouldn't be surprised if Cleverly wins a decision. A lot depends on how Cleverly can a) Not allow Kovalev to land his shots and b) How will he take them when Kovalev does inevitably land. How good is Cleverlys chin really? I think Cleverly is going to have to try and fight smart and apply smart, consistant pressure. He will have to get in close and smother Kovalev's shots and have a high punch output on the inside. Use his body to try and push, lean on Kovalev, try to sap his energy, work the body and torso and even Kovalev's arms and shoulders to try and tire him. I think if Cleverly tries to stand too much and box from the outside it could be dangerous because he will give Kovalev room to throw full power shots and Cleverly's defense is not going to be good enough to avoid them all. Kovalev is a decent boxer himself. He will get hit and I think he will get hit a little too often with power he hasn't seen before. So he has sparred with Fury and Chisora, but sparring is different than a fight, headgear, intensity etc. and he has to not get dragged into a shootout with the bigger puncher. He has to use movement and try not to allow Kovalev to plant his feet. He loves getting into a fight and likes to prove he can take a punch but this isn't the opponent to do this against. I think the fight will get more and more interesting the more it goes on. I think Kovalev will have the power to hurt Cleverly at any stage and he could win via accumulation. Cleverly will have a higher output and with the crowd behind him could win rounds on that basis, but I see Kovalev tagging him with the harder shots and unless Cleverly's chin is really iron he probably won't be able to stand up to being hit with Kovalev's hardest shots for the whole fight. I quite like Cleverly and think he has been under-rated on here, and glad he is finally getting the big challenge he's been waiting for. I'm really looking forward to the fight.
See the problem I see here is that should Kovalev dominate say the first 6 rounds and even score one or two knock downs, Cleverly may still not have the power to turn the fight around. Cleverly is still going to have to do some work in the first 6 imo which makes this prospect all the more difficult. Personally I'm not as convinced Kovalev will tire as badly as everyone is predicted because to me he looks like a consummate professional but he may not be as effective during the later stages. I think Kovalev isn't just a puncher, he's a fantastic boxer as well. I'm not writing Cleverly off mind because he can box very well too and has speed and stamina as well has home advantage. I think we still have a lot of questions to be answered about both fighters and this fight should answer them. Thanks for your comment that had some good insight and an interesting refernce mate.
I pretty much agree with this, good insight. I have watched a lot of Kovalev and even when you see him in the 6th round he doesn't seem tired at all. I want Cleverly to win and I do think he has a chance but at the same time he is going to have to really up his game in my opinion because I don't think Kovalev is a hype job.
Thanks, yeah this is indeed the biggest test for both both fighters so far, i actually hope there isn't an early KO, i want at least 6-10 rounds of great action but when you have a KO artist like Kovalev it could be an early night. Also hope the judging is fair if it goes to a decision but this would favor Cleverly i feel which is a shame. I think whoever wins this comes out with a much better reputation and a higher rank at LHW, especially Cleverly who a lot of people don't rate and are dissaponued in his choice of Opponents recently. If Kovalev wins then his Hype and standings grow, World Champion tag to go with his KO Hype and should get more big fights on HBO, vs other Champions. Same goes for cleverly on the HBO and unification fights, anyway should be a great fight and its the first cleverly title fight I've looked forward to since Marat/Bellew.
Kovalev KO inside 6, in the 4th if I was fired to choose. I just feel that once Kovalev lands it's going to drag Cleverly into a tear up as he seems to enjoy doing, and Kpvalev will take full advantage of that. Cleverly wont have the power to discourage him as he's not the biggest puncher (great body puncher though IMO) and he won't have the chin to survive a Kovalev barrage.
Im going completely against the grain here with a Cleverly late stoppage. Kovalevs total lack of distance fight experience and Cleverly's high workrate will lead to an exhausted Kovalev being tko'd rounds 9-12.
cleverly on points unaminous decision after losing a few of the first 6 rounds and coming on stronger after round 6
I don't know who is going to win this fight with any certainty. A case can be made for both fighters. Listening to the Cleverly team, we can expect Kovalev to run out of gas and be knocked out late in the fight. Watching the videos of how effortlessly Kovalev despatches his opponents within three rounds makes me think Cleverly is the next victim, but perhaps he lasts a little bit longer. I think Kovalev has the skill, footwork and talent to get to Cleverly and I think even if Cleverly takes a good punch, the follow up shots which he might not see coming will do great damage. What will Cleverly do when hurt? Showboat and he gets knocked out, Run?, Kovalev closes off the ring. Stand and fight? Kovalev's extra power will win a shootout. Kovalev goes all in to get Cleverly out of there. TKO 2. (+/- 1)
Im thinking cleves plan is to stay out of trouble early on, picking up every other round and then hopes kovalev tires down the stretch and clev gets the nod. but! will the russian will know this??? i think so, kovalev will bide his time and call nathans bluff and stop him around the 8th or 9th. i like cleverly i like his workrate and handspeed but he can let his heart rule his head sometimes, lets be honest he's probably the nearest thing we've got to calzaghe style wise, he's still young and im not sold on how much pop is in his punches and for that reason i dont think he'll have enough to keep kovalev off, when i first saw kovalev i thought this bloke means business although his punches seem quite wide and then i watched him walk through campillo no problem, ouch! i hope cleverly can prove me wrong he definatly has the handspeed to beat kovalev to the punch but will that be enough?