Confidence on canelo over crawford....

The main reason I see Canelo beating Crawford is due to the sheer size advantage. He's essentially going up three weight classes, he's had one fight at 154, and it was a fairly unconvincing win against Madrimov, who isn't even the best at 154, and didn't hurt him once. The idea that he can go up two more weight divisions and take out the #1 168-pound fighter in the world? I can't see it. I don't think he'd beat Janibek at 160, never mind Canelo at 168. His weight ceiling, I think, is around 154, which is to be expected given it's his 4th weight class.

Also, Crawford has never fought against anyone of Canelo's calibre, whereas Canelo has shared the ring with GGG and Bivol, who are arguably just as skilled and dangerous as Crawford, and are also much bigger and hit much harder. If Crawford tries to fight in the pocket or toe to toe, he's going to get stopped much sooner.

Unless Canelo is absolutely shot to bits, I think he will win by body shot KO between 6-9. He might be behind on the scorecards, but the first real power shot that lands is going to do damage and disrupt Crawford's rhythm.

 

Watching the build up, Canelo has a huge psychological edge, which imo counts for a lot. I was thinking 50/50, but I'm leaning towards Canelo in a shootout. I don't think size is a thing and should be put to rest.

 

Yeah I was thinking about the psychological edge because to me Crawford seems a bit off his confidence is coming off as false I think deep down he knows he has bitten off more than he can chew but he will give it his all.
For me Canelo is too big too strong and skill wise on almost the same level as Crawford. Canelo has taken shots from monsters like GGG so Crawford does no have the power to hurt him or even push him back. It's gonna be the old adage a good big man beats a good little man I don't see it playing out any other way.

 

So I've always backed Canelo over Crawford. Size, experience, power. He's fast enough to land and I think he's crafty enough to work out Bud's timing and cave him in.

That said: Canelo is slower than he used to be. Also I have seen some of Elmaldito's fights, and the dude knows what he is doing. It's hard to discount the opinion of somebody well-versed in the subject at hand.

This could be a really good one.

 

Spence has better skills than Canelo.

 

Very thick analysis.

 

It's a 50/50 fight. Bud is equally big, strong, skilled. He has quick short punches which are hard to see and anticipate, hence Bud has chances to hurt Canelo, unlike for example from GGG which were slower and longer.

 

Bud is also gonna be a lot slower than normal too though. Packing on that much weight onto your frame in such a short space of time will not get Crawford in his usual or even a very good fighting shape. He can’t put on that much muscle in the time-frame and even if he did, most of it wouldn’t be functional muscle and would probably still slow him down. If he has excess fat from his bulk up then that will also weigh him down and could hurt him down the stretch.

Canelo is the most skilled opponent Crawford has faced so far but he is also the biggest and the one with the best chin and best power. Canelo has been steadily declining for a while now but I still think he has enough left to beat a much smaller man even if Crawford is an ATG.

 

its going to take bud less than 4 rds to realize 12 rds is too long for the heat canelos packing. after the first punch with leverage lands clean. you will know the moment it happens. at that point, bud is going to find out who he is. hes either going to bite down and soldier on to go down fighting, or hes going to start second guessing everything, letting doubt turn into resignment.
if he manages to win, hes in with the greats. but i really dont think he understands what the difference between what hes fought, and what hes about to fight, really is. thats why i say you will see the moment in the ring. the moment of realization.

 

I don’t know where all this “Bud is just as big” talk is coming from, but he’s not…

I know Canelo moved up from 154 (a decade ago..) but he has really grown into the weight - as evidenced by him beating and hurting a bunch of bigger guys. He’s short and stocky, but he is clearly bigger than Bud. Those of you saying there’s no size advantage, have you seen the press conferences and stuff? Canelos neck is probably as thick as Crawford thigh..

…and pushing someone who’s standing square and not expecting it is not a display of superior strength.

 

If Canelo fails to capitalize on his size advantage he loses. This fight is almost that simple to preview.

 

I don’t think it is that simple. Crawford has never faced a sharpshooter like canelo. I know canelo has slowed down but I think people are seriously over rating Crawford and underrating Canelo. People are talking as though canelo is some plodding slugger with no technical ability. Hes won a lot of fights based on his skills alone due to the fact he has been the smaller man in alot of his recent fights.

 

bud knows he can lose, but he also thinks he could pull it off. it is a cash out retirement fight, why not? its win/win. If he loses, he was supposed to lose, if he wins, that's crazy. for Canelo its lose-lose, win - oh you beat up on someone much smaller - he loses, we won't hear the last of it.