Cotto has a better chance than most think, this is why

Okay then.

 

So your money is on Cotto then?

 

OK I understand what you're saying but it wont happen.

Mayweather is too much for Cotto, still be a good fight though.

 

What you just showed is that Cotto is a better opponent than Floyd's last three opponents, which is totally true but in no way indicate that he has a good chance of winning against Floyd.

 

I'm on board!!!

 

cotto is simply gonna get beaten to the punch all night, in a wide UD for floyd..

 

Mayweather's best weapon is his ability to adjust on the fly.

Examples:

ODLH - Oscar was able to connect with the jab and some right hands. Floyd changed his style, tied up Oscar and became more mobile, wearing Oscar out physcially then picked him apart.

Hatton - Trying to capitalize on ODLH's mild success in being able to land due to pressuring Mayweather, Hatton came in like a bulldozer. Hatton dictated the pace of the fight but couldn't land anything meaningful (ref also wasn't allowing him to work inside). By round 10 Floyd was easily anticipating Hatton, changed his style, and we all know what happened from there.

Mosley - Mosley came in with pressure (because its worked for everyone else), speed and power. He didn't come in with multiple game plans or sufficient cardio. In Rnd 2 when Mosley surprised Floyd and caught him, you could see Floyd wasn't as much hurt as he was surprised. He came out in Rnd 3, changed his style, and made mosley chase him...wore him down and picked him apart (like he did to Oscar).

Ortiz - Ortiz sheer aggression was troubling Floyd, despite what the *****'s say. You could see it on Floyd's face that he didn't like being hit and was wondering how this kid was able to push him around and land shots. I'm sure that Floyd, like everyone else, expected to put on a boxing clinic. However, it wasn't going that way at all. Floyd saw an opening to end the fight early and took it.

So... what I've learned from watching Floyd fight is that to beat him you need these things:

1. Head movement. If you don't move your head, Floyd will tag you with counters and 1+2's all night long. However, as Mosley showed, if you can slip a punch and quickly trow one back, then you can catch Floyd.

2. Hand speed. For the reasons I stated above, to land counters. Floyd is too good to get caught with many lead punches, but he can be caught with the second/third or counter punches.

3. Lateral movement. As Hatton showed us, if you come straight in, Floyd will anticipate you and you have no chance. To be successful against Floyd you need to throw from angles that he's not expecting, like Oscar was famous for and Ortiz did (mostly with wild punches though).

4. Patience. Floyd is very patitent. His defense gives him the ability to deconstruct an opponent as the fight goes on, then shut down the things that work and get a decision or exploit a weakness and try to TKO you. Anyone who plans to have a good chance against Floyd need to be patient, look for openings and ways to bait him into something predictable.

5. Multiple game plans. Floyd is able to make adjustments better than anyone I've seen, except maybe Hopkins. If you plan to beat Floyd you have to have a Plan B to use after he shuts down your Plan A, and a Plan C to use when he shuts down your Plan B.

6. Pressure. I'm talking in volume of punches as well as manhandling him. Floyd doesn't like getting hit. It rattles him, pisses him off, causes him to want to come forward more. The kind of pressure Ortiz was using (without the headbutts) is going to be critical. Roughing Floyd up, shoving him around, landing hard, quick punches. Not backing down, but not going balls out crazy either.

7. Cardio conditioning. If Floyd can't come in and simply have his way, then one of Floyd's fall back offenses is to make you chase him, wear you out then pick you apart.

8. A cool head. Another trick Floyd uses is causing his opponent to get pissed, come after him and open themselves up. (Ortiz, Judah, Marquez)

How many of those things does Cotto bring to the table?

1. Head movement. Cotto has OK head movement. He's eaten a lot of punches from slower guys that Floyd, so I don't think he has this advantage.

2. Hand speed. Cotto has had good hand speed in his past few fights. Quick, snappy punches with some thud on them.

3. Lateral movement. Cotto does bring good angles and lateral movement. He's good at getting in, sliding out on an angle and landing as he exits.

4. Patience. Cotto is patient.

5. Multiple game plans. I have not seen Cotto ever have a successful major adjustment in a fight that I can recall. Not on the level of Floyd anyway.

6. Pressure. Cotto is good at applying smart pressure and can also take a punch.

7. Cardio & Conditioning. Cotto looked good in his last fight and never looked gassed. I'm not sure he has the conditioning of Floyd, however.

8. Cool head. Cotto certainly has a cool head and doesn't get wild when he's frustrated.

In short, Cotto has about 5/8 of those things. Its not impossible that he could win, and I think it will be a good fight, but I don't think he can win it.

 

Alot of what you said made sense with exception of the Ortiz stuff.....Ortiz was often being walked down and being constantly landed on with the straight right?!

So I don't know how what "sheer aggression" you are refering to, if anything Hatton was more aggressive than Ortiz, he (Hatton) almost never retreated.

As for Floyd seeing an opportunity to finish it, that is absolutely rubbish. How on earth did Floyd know he would knock Victor out?, any normal fighter who got hit with the first punch would have IMMEDIATELY defended themselves from the second....

Who knew Ortiz would be stupid enough to turn to the referee and give Mayweather a second opportunity to punch him......come on now you seem like a reasonable poster!

In any case I just don't see Cotto having enough tools to beat Mayweather, he isn't as skilled and he doesn't punch hard enough either.

Mayweather has too many different game plans/ styles he can employ to beat Cotto.

 

Cotto will stick around for a while longer.
This enables him to take a bigger beating.
His only real chance is that Mayweather breaks a hand or 2 on his face.

 

It will be a unanimous decision. But Cotto will be alright. I doubt Gayweather will go for the record of most punches connected in this fight or in any fight.

I don't think throwing well placed 1 punch every 10 second would do much damage. It would win the fight.

 

Pretty much how I feel.

:yep

 

Cotto(e) doesn't have the best style to challenge Mayweather imo.

 

Don't agree how these would help him.

Cotto(e) tries to be patient, and it's not natural like with Mayweather or Hopkins. Cotto(e) puts way too much effort into being deliberate. It plays into Floyd's hands if you have to think that hard, and you're not as fast as him in the head. Look at what happen to Mosley.

Miguel doesn't have a cool head. He's a pretty undisciplined fighter. See how he got knocked down the 2nd time against emmanuel, which happened to be the beginning of the end, for an example.