Cotto has a better chance than most think, this is why

Capitan · Feb 21, 2012

Leon said: ↑

Cotto(e) doesn't have the best style to challenge Mayweather imo.
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Don't understand that one.....

Mayweather will fight to not lose....pawing jabs and sucker rights with shoulders rolls hoping Cotto goes for the head feignts and tire himself out.

Cotto will approach the fight to win it.....he will stuff that stiff jab in his face all night.
He will punish Mayweather's body and his arms as well with some unexpected uppercuts and punches to the chest.

Mayweather will regret signing up for this one which will leave him 42/1.

unloco · Feb 21, 2012

artdawg said: ↑

First of, lets look at Floyds last three fights/opponents starting with

JMM - was out of his weight class and looked soft ass hell at the new weight and was completely dominated.

Shane- had interesting first rounds then Floyd completely dominates Shane, Shane goes on have two more fights in where he shows that he is completely shot and should retire.

Ortiz- young and strong, but no ring I.Q. or no I.Q. at all, and in this fight, Floyd showed us he is stronger than most thought and capable of walking down his opponents, but Vics lack of I.Q. would have prevented him to adjust had the fight gone on.

Floyd completely dominated all three and didn't really have to put his whole skills set to the test. (Taking nothing from Floyd) Saying that it is safe to say he hasn't put his skills to the test since 2007. Thats a long time.

Now lets look at Cotto, he has had 8 fights from 2008-2011, And some of those fights have pushed him to the limit, in which 2 he lost, he had redeemed one loss proving he learned from the loss and pacs refusal to meet him at the higher weights leave us to belive pac feels Cotto learned and adjusted. And you can also argue Miguel did fairly well for a fighter with unstable trainers, imo the cuban trainer suits him best, he looked incredible in his fight against Margo.

And last lets look at Cottos new trainer, an ex cuban amateur trainer, the man has seen many talents, and cubans are known for their boxing abilities in the sport, not to mention amateur is scored on accurately landing and scoring points something that can be related to Floyds fighting style. The man is more than capable of planning out a on plan to defeat Mayweather, so when you add all this up is the perfect receipt for the upset.
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good points , im on board

unloco · Feb 21, 2012

Slacker said: ↑

Mayweather's best weapon is his ability to adjust on the fly.

Examples:

ODLH - Oscar was able to connect with the jab and some right hands. Floyd changed his style, tied up Oscar and became more mobile, wearing Oscar out physcially then picked him apart.

Hatton - Trying to capitalize on ODLH's mild success in being able to land due to pressuring Mayweather, Hatton came in like a bulldozer. Hatton dictated the pace of the fight but couldn't land anything meaningful (ref also wasn't allowing him to work inside). By round 10 Floyd was easily anticipating Hatton, changed his style, and we all know what happened from there.

Mosley - Mosley came in with pressure (because its worked for everyone else), speed and power. He didn't come in with multiple game plans or sufficient cardio. In Rnd 2 when Mosley surprised Floyd and caught him, you could see Floyd wasn't as much hurt as he was surprised. He came out in Rnd 3, changed his style, and made mosley chase him...wore him down and picked him apart (like he did to Oscar).

Ortiz - Ortiz sheer aggression was troubling Floyd, despite what the *****'s say. You could see it on Floyd's face that he didn't like being hit and was wondering how this kid was able to push him around and land shots. I'm sure that Floyd, like everyone else, expected to put on a boxing clinic. However, it wasn't going that way at all. Floyd saw an opening to end the fight early and took it.

So... what I've learned from watching Floyd fight is that to beat him you need these things:

1. Head movement. If you don't move your head, Floyd will tag you with counters and 1+2's all night long. However, as Mosley showed, if you can slip a punch and quickly trow one back, then you can catch Floyd.

2. Hand speed. For the reasons I stated above, to land counters. Floyd is too good to get caught with many lead punches, but he can be caught with the second/third or counter punches.

3. Lateral movement. As Hatton showed us, if you come straight in, Floyd will anticipate you and you have no chance. To be successful against Floyd you need to throw from angles that he's not expecting, like Oscar was famous for and Ortiz did (mostly with wild punches though).

4. Patience. Floyd is very patitent. His defense gives him the ability to deconstruct an opponent as the fight goes on, then shut down the things that work and get a decision or exploit a weakness and try to TKO you. Anyone who plans to have a good chance against Floyd need to be patient, look for openings and ways to bait him into something predictable.

5. Multiple game plans. Floyd is able to make adjustments better than anyone I've seen, except maybe Hopkins. If you plan to beat Floyd you have to have a Plan B to use after he shuts down your Plan A, and a Plan C to use when he shuts down your Plan B.

6. Pressure. I'm talking in volume of punches as well as manhandling him. Floyd doesn't like getting hit. It rattles him, pisses him off, causes him to want to come forward more. The kind of pressure Ortiz was using (without the headbutts) is going to be critical. Roughing Floyd up, shoving him around, landing hard, quick punches. Not backing down, but not going balls out crazy either.

7. Cardio conditioning. If Floyd can't come in and simply have his way, then one of Floyd's fall back offenses is to make you chase him, wear you out then pick you apart.

8. A cool head. Another trick Floyd uses is causing his opponent to get pissed, come after him and open themselves up. (Ortiz, Judah, Marquez)

How many of those things does Cotto bring to the table?

1. Head movement. Cotto has OK head movement. He's eaten a lot of punches from slower guys that Floyd, so I don't think he has this advantage.

2. Hand speed. Cotto has had good hand speed in his past few fights. Quick, snappy punches with some thud on them.

3. Lateral movement. Cotto does bring good angles and lateral movement. He's good at getting in, sliding out on an angle and landing as he exits.

4. Patience. Cotto is patient.

5. Multiple game plans. I have not seen Cotto ever have a successful major adjustment in a fight that I can recall. Not on the level of Floyd anyway.

6. Pressure. Cotto is good at applying smart pressure and can also take a punch.

7. Cardio & Conditioning. Cotto looked good in his last fight and never looked gassed. I'm not sure he has the conditioning of Floyd, however.

8. Cool head. Cotto certainly has a cool head and doesn't get wild when he's frustrated.

In short, Cotto has about 5/8 of those things. Its not impossible that he could win, and I think it will be a good fight, but I don't think he can win it.
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nice way to lay it out :good

artdawg · Feb 21, 2012

Leon said: ↑

Don't agree how these would help him.

Cotto(e) tries to be patient, and it's not natural like with Mayweather or Hopkins. Cotto(e) puts way too much effort into being deliberate. It plays into Floyd's hands if you have to think that hard, and you're not as fast as him in the head. Look at what happen to Mosley.

Miguel doesn't have a cool head. He's a pretty undisciplined fighter. See how he got knocked down the 2nd time against emmanuel, which happened to be the beginning of the end, for an example.
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The knockout in the second round does show he didn't have the patience but it can be argued that he was running his own camp, and thats exactly what I'm talking about when I' said that the new trainer will come into play to making the dif, he showed plenty if discipline in his last fight and will follow his game plan, the fact that as a cuban amateur trainer he seen many talents makes him capable of planning out a successful plan. Ill go as far as offering you a avatar bet, watta ya say leon?

kommieforniaglo · Feb 21, 2012

Slacker said: ↑

Mayweather's best weapon is his ability to adjust on the fly.

Examples:

ODLH - Oscar was able to connect with the jab and some right hands. Floyd changed his style, tied up Oscar and became more mobile, wearing Oscar out physcially then picked him apart.

Hatton - Trying to capitalize on ODLH's mild success in being able to land due to pressuring Mayweather, Hatton came in like a bulldozer. Hatton dictated the pace of the fight but couldn't land anything meaningful (ref also wasn't allowing him to work inside). By round 10 Floyd was easily anticipating Hatton, changed his style, and we all know what happened from there.

Mosley - Mosley came in with pressure (because its worked for everyone else), speed and power. He didn't come in with multiple game plans or sufficient cardio. In Rnd 2 when Mosley surprised Floyd and caught him, you could see Floyd wasn't as much hurt as he was surprised. He came out in Rnd 3, changed his style, and made mosley chase him...wore him down and picked him apart (like he did to Oscar).

Ortiz - Ortiz sheer aggression was troubling Floyd, despite what the *****'s say. You could see it on Floyd's face that he didn't like being hit and was wondering how this kid was able to push him around and land shots. I'm sure that Floyd, like everyone else, expected to put on a boxing clinic. However, it wasn't going that way at all. Floyd saw an opening to end the fight early and took it.

So... what I've learned from watching Floyd fight is that to beat him you need these things:

1. Head movement. If you don't move your head, Floyd will tag you with counters and 1+2's all night long. However, as Mosley showed, if you can slip a punch and quickly trow one back, then you can catch Floyd.

2. Hand speed. For the reasons I stated above, to land counters. Floyd is too good to get caught with many lead punches, but he can be caught with the second/third or counter punches.

3. Lateral movement. As Hatton showed us, if you come straight in, Floyd will anticipate you and you have no chance. To be successful against Floyd you need to throw from angles that he's not expecting, like Oscar was famous for and Ortiz did (mostly with wild punches though).

4. Patience. Floyd is very patitent. His defense gives him the ability to deconstruct an opponent as the fight goes on, then shut down the things that work and get a decision or exploit a weakness and try to TKO you. Anyone who plans to have a good chance against Floyd need to be patient, look for openings and ways to bait him into something predictable.

5. Multiple game plans. Floyd is able to make adjustments better than anyone I've seen, except maybe Hopkins. If you plan to beat Floyd you have to have a Plan B to use after he shuts down your Plan A, and a Plan C to use when he shuts down your Plan B.

6. Pressure. I'm talking in volume of punches as well as manhandling him. Floyd doesn't like getting hit. It rattles him, pisses him off, causes him to want to come forward more. The kind of pressure Ortiz was using (without the headbutts) is going to be critical. Roughing Floyd up, shoving him around, landing hard, quick punches. Not backing down, but not going balls out crazy either.

7. Cardio conditioning. If Floyd can't come in and simply have his way, then one of Floyd's fall back offenses is to make you chase him, wear you out then pick you apart.

8. A cool head. Another trick Floyd uses is causing his opponent to get pissed, come after him and open themselves up. (Ortiz, Judah, Marquez)

How many of those things does Cotto bring to the table?

1. Head movement. Cotto has OK head movement. He's eaten a lot of punches from slower guys that Floyd, so I don't think he has this advantage.

2. Hand speed. Cotto has had good hand speed in his past few fights. Quick, snappy punches with some thud on them.

3. Lateral movement. Cotto does bring good angles and lateral movement. He's good at getting in, sliding out on an angle and landing as he exits.

4. Patience. Cotto is patient.

5. Multiple game plans. I have not seen Cotto ever have a successful major adjustment in a fight that I can recall. Not on the level of Floyd anyway.

6. Pressure. Cotto is good at applying smart pressure and can also take a punch.

7. Cardio & Conditioning. Cotto looked good in his last fight and never looked gassed. I'm not sure he has the conditioning of Floyd, however.

8. Cool head. Cotto certainly has a cool head and doesn't get wild when he's frustrated.

In short, Cotto has about 5/8 of those things. Its not impossible that he could win, and I think it will be a good fight, but I don't think he can win it.
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Thank you for taking the time to lay it out like this I concur, I would love to see Cotto pull it off, but realistically, I think Floyd is going to outclass him.

boxsensei · Feb 21, 2012

Slacker said: ↑

Mayweather's best weapon is his ability to adjust on the fly.

Ortiz - Ortiz sheer aggression was troubling Floyd, despite what the *****'s say. You could see it on Floyd's face that he didn't like being hit and was wondering how this kid was able to push him around and land shots. I'm sure that Floyd, like everyone else, expected to put on a boxing clinic. However, it wasn't going that way at all. Floyd saw an opening to end the fight early and took it.

.
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I stopped reading right here. Did you even see the fight? starting in round 2, Mayweather began bouncing right hands off of Ortiz's face all night. Ortiz eye was swelling and he was being backed up by a man 14lbs lighter. He was getting his ass kicked, Floyd was smiling at him, and he lost and did a flying headbutt. Only a nimrod would think that he was giving Floyd trouble.

Popshots · Feb 21, 2012

artdawg said: ↑

First of, lets look at Floyds last three fights/opponents starting with

JMM - was out of his weight class and looked soft ass hell at the new weight and was completely dominated.

Shane- had interesting first rounds then Floyd completely dominates Shane, Shane goes on have two more fights in where he shows that he is completely shot and should retire.

Ortiz- young and strong, but no ring I.Q. or no I.Q. at all, and in this fight, Floyd showed us he is stronger than most thought and capable of walking down his opponents, but Vics lack of I.Q. would have prevented him to adjust had the fight gone on.

Floyd completely dominated all three and didn't really have to put his whole skills set to the test. (Taking nothing from Floyd) Saying that it is safe to say he hasn't put his skills to the test since 2007. Thats a long time.

Now lets look at Cotto, he has had 8 fights from 2008-2011, And some of those fights have pushed him to the limit, in which 2 he lost, he had redeemed one loss proving he learned from the loss and pacs refusal to meet him at the higher weights leave us to belive pac feels Cotto learned and adjusted. And you can also argue Miguel did fairly well for a fighter with unstable trainers, imo the cuban trainer suits him best, he looked incredible in his fight against Margo.

And last lets look at Cottos new trainer, an ex cuban amateur trainer, the man has seen many talents, and cubans are known for their boxing abilities in the sport, not to mention amateur is scored on accurately landing and scoring points something that can be related to Floyds fighting style. The man is more than capable of planning out a on plan to defeat Mayweather, so when you add all this up is the perfect receipt for the upset.
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Bottomline is, if you were a betting man and you claim you don't bet, you would be a fool to go against Floyd concerning any fighter 154lbs and down. You believe he has a chance of winning, but I assume you're not foolish enough to believe he will win.

You could have wrapped this up in short. I believe Cotto has a chance because he isn't being forced to come down now only to 147, but to 145 for Pete's sake and he can punch. Floyd's first 154lbs outing wasn't impressive at all. He clearly lost some of his snap against DLH, but he looking a bit stronger lately.

RobertV77 · Feb 21, 2012

Terrific Job comparing 3 of Mayweather's fights to 8 of Cotto's. Cotto's latest victories are against retired corpses and Mayweathers are against a p4p candidate and active current titlists. The form looks better for Mayweather than Cotto.

artdawg · Feb 21, 2012

RobertV77 said: ↑

Terrific Job comparing 3 of Mayweather's fights to 8 of Cotto's. Cotto's latest victories are against retired corpses and Mayweathers are against a p4p candidate and active current titlists. The form looks better for Mayweather than Cotto.
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It wasnt to compare opponents but to show his inactivity and to show he hasn't been keeping his skills sharp

Nopporn · Feb 21, 2012

Cotto is not fast enough to catch Floyd.

Auracle21 · Feb 21, 2012

YES!!! WAR COTTO!! With fair judging he can shock the world!!!

Juiceboxbiotch · Feb 21, 2012

artdawg said: ↑

I dont bet, I'm just saying this is a better fight than most think with a real chance of an upset, cotto is recently very underrated.
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I'm on this train.

Leon · Feb 21, 2012

artdawg said: ↑

The knockout in the second round does show he didn't have the patience but it can be argued that he was running his own camp, and thats exactly what I'm talking about when I' said that the new trainer will come into play to making the dif, he showed plenty if discipline in his last fight and will follow his game plan, the fact that as a cuban amateur trainer he seen many talents makes him capable of planning out a successful plan. Ill go as far as offering you a avatar bet, watta ya say leon?
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we're making an avatar bet on whether Cotto(e) gets taken out of his plan or not?

Slacker · Feb 21, 2012

Leon said: ↑

Don't agree how these would help him.

Miguel doesn't have a cool head. He's a pretty undisciplined fighter. See how he got knocked down the 2nd time against emmanuel, which happened to be the beginning of the end, for an example.
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Cotto was able to go in and dismantle a guy who had beat him bloody in front of the cries of his family...and he was able to do it because he kept a cool head and was patient. He executed the game plan perfectly and took advantage of opportunities when they were available.

Against Manny it was over by then and he knew no matter what he did it wouldn't work. I think he just wanted to get through the rounds on his feet.

Emeritus said: ↑

Alot of what you said made sense with exception of the Ortiz stuff.....Ortiz was often being walked down and being constantly landed on with the straight right?!

So I don't know how what "sheer aggression" you are refering to, if anything Hatton was more aggressive than Ortiz, he (Hatton) almost never retreated.

As for Floyd seeing an opportunity to finish it, that is absolutely rubbish.
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When I watch Floyd fight, I'm not watching to see an upset, I'm watching to see what works against him.

As I mentioned in the above post, several guys have found several things that worked, but not anything that will end the fight.

Like I said, that is because while they may win a round by employing a technique, Floyd comes out in the next round and changes his style to negate the technique they were using. That is why I said you need to have multiple tools to work with because having only one isn't good enough.

If you watch the Ortiz fight as a neutral party you can see Floyd was concerned at moments and was pissed that someone was trying to bully him.

As for how the fight ended, I don't care to get into debating it. Its been talked about to death. Floyd got the W and Ortiz got the L.

boxsensei said: ↑

I stopped reading right here. Did you even see the fight? starting in round 2, Mayweather began bouncing right hands off of Ortiz's face ...He was getting his ass kicked...Only a nimrod would think that he was giving Floyd trouble.
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You are not paying attention to what I'm saying.

Obviously Floyd was blasting him in the face at will. We all knew that was going to happen.

I'm not trying to imply that Ortiz was ever "winning". I'm simply saying that one thing that worked for Ortiz was roughing floyd on the ropes, pushing and manhandling him. Floyd didn't like it and you could see it was causing him to be more aggressive and come after Ortiz.

Leon · Feb 21, 2012

Capitan said: ↑

Don't understand that one.....

Mayweather will fight to not lose....pawing jabs and sucker rights with shoulders rolls hoping Cotto goes for the head feignts and tire himself out.

Cotto will approach the fight to win it.....he will stuff that stiff jab in his face all night.
He will punish Mayweather's body and his arms as well with some unexpected uppercuts and punches to the chest.

Mayweather will regret signing up for this one which will leave him 42/1.
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What are you talking about? Mayweather always fights to win. See how quickly he responded to Mosley's success in the 2nd round of their fight. Cotto(e) on the other hand went into all out survival mode for a duration of rounds against emmanuel.

You forgot to mention Floyd popping Cotto(e) to the body all night with his jab.

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