Cotto is not the same fighter since Margarito

Ill start by saying, that i didnt buy into this theory most famously expressed by Teddy Atlas. He states in his usual overly dramatic style that cotto has had something beaten out of him in the margarito fight. In essence his confidence is not there the way it was in the mosley fight, which has resulted in him not being confident in fully committing to punches or even defensive maneuovers.

At first I thought this was usual teddy atlas nonsense however, ive just reviewed the cotto-clottey fight. It isnt evident at first but watch closely at some of the offence and defence cotto does throughout the fight and you will find that he is trying to replicate what he did in the margarito fight. For example in round 6 at the end of the round, clottey is on the ropes but cotto is not moving his head or body to look for angles to land hooks or uppercuts. A strange thing happens. Clottey unleashes around a 6 punch combo on cotto which he attempts to avoid with his hands down by his side using pure reflex and agility (margarito fight?). Unfortunately for him it does not work and he gets tagged hard.

Another supporting point to the theory that cotto has lost a step is the way in which he now throws uppercuts from range. He no longer confidently steps in to unleash a nice compact uppercut but insteads fires sort of an extended uppercut which always misses the target. On top of this clottey at times in the fight manged to land 4-5 left uppercuts in a row bang on the head of cotto. To me, this is a very worrying sign for miguel when fighting someone like manny who can throw multiple uppercuts off his toes.

Miguel's defence has now also become passive and basic. He cannot do both offence and defence at the same time nor does he have the same reflexes to lessen the impact of blows. Clottey had a field day on this as its his fight. Clottey has a strong high guard and is explosive when he wants to be. Therefore he lets you hit his arms and elbows only to unleash on you the moment you stop throwing. When i watched parts of the fight in slow-motion one thing became very apparent. Whenever clottey landed it was a clean, hard shot but whenever cotto landed the impact would vary.

Finally, Miguel has become too static. Comparing the clottey fight to the mosley fight, its almost as if cotto is in slow mo in the clottey fight. He used to be able to move so well on his toes but now he fights more flat footed. Thats a bad point when fighting manny because he is constantly moving which means you have to close that distance quickly and hit him hard. I didnt see any slipping to set up punches by Miguel in the clottey fight but there were plenty of those subtle skills in the mosley fight and his previous fights.

It probably seems like im coming down hard on cotto and not giving him a chance to beat pacquiao but i honestly believe at some stage their fight, cotto is going to crumble. The fight will most likely be highly competitve but there will come a point where miguel will slow (in terms of reflexes, reaction times and agility) to the extent that manny will force a TKO. The competitiveness of the fight however will be dictated by cotto's size and strength advantage and other intangibles such as pacquiaos ability to take a flush shot from cotto and vice versa.

 

I forgot to mention that clottey is one a hell of a fighter from what i saw in the cotto fight. The way he was snapping miguels head back and forth with 5-6 left hooks and uppercuts at a time was very good. Also he has a very good defence where he can conserve his energy for explosive bursts as in the cotto fight. Manny though is a special fighter and has that aura around him at the moment. What i really want to see is a mayweather pacquiao trilogy.

 

Thats a really good point. People need to watch the gomez fight again and see the pure confidence even arrogance of cotto in the ring. The way he was measuring his opponent, picking his shots and countering his albeit overmatched opponent hard is something that is missing from his game lately.

 

:deal Also i think the margarito loss is being overlooked because of the hand wraps issue and its being dismissed because of it. Although i do believe the way cottos head began to swell immensely after the 6th lead to suspicion. I think miguel needed a world class trainer pre margarito who could take him to ATG level but now hes stuck merely at elite level and may not improve further.

 

:good

 

I worry for miguel because its the first time since the margarito defeat that hes going to be facing a guy as high up ATG P4P rankings as pacquiao is often placed, and that man is in his prime. Also after the beating he sustained in the margarito fight, would he break down easier this time? In the end all cotto can do is train his hardest which he is doing judging by the long training camp and give it his all. Also this is a chance for cotto to enter those ATG rankings and is probably going to be his legacy defining fight.