**Cotto v Margartio. Official Analysis and Avatar Bets Thread**

My analysis for the fight:

Cotto v Margarito i think will be the fight that really cements Cotto's top p4p status in the hearts an minds of all boxing fans around the world.

Margarito is a great opponent for Cotto. First off because he has been avoided by other top level guys. Secondly, because he is big, strong and has a very exciting style. Apart from this, stylistically he is very much suited to Miguel.

I am supremely confident that this will be a very dominant performance from Miguel, as he beats Margarito both outside and in.
From the outside, Cotto is the much superior boxer. He has better movement than Marg, and most importantly the greater jab. Regardless of the height difference in this one, Cotto is going to be landing very hard jabs all night. The reason for this, is that Margarito has a very poor jab, and just simply paws it out there. He also doesn't move well when throwing his jab, and more so like to use it to try and keep his opponent in front of him, and set up his combinations and body work. However for this to happen, he needs an opponent who will sit and wait just on the end of his lazy jab. Cotto will certainly not do this, as he is a very intelligent fighter who will use his superior movement to his advantage.

Great fights IMO to compare this to is Cotto v Pinto, Bazan and even Sosa to an extent.

Pinto and Bazan because both were taller opponent, who are very tough guys, and tried to exchange with Cotto, much like Margarito will. Cotto in these fights (even though green at 140) used his superior movement to stay out of punching range, and punched explosively. His jab against both these guys was extremely effective, regardless of their reach advantage, because of the way Cotto steps in on this jab, and the speed behind it. These taller fighers much like Margarito didn't use their reach advantage, they are bigger guys that liked to mix it up. So they would get beaten up from the outside all night long, getting caught trying to walk down Cotto whilst being too sloppy overall in their movement.

On the inside against both of these opponents, Cotto is much more compact defensively, much more powerful from this range, much shorter and more accurate with his punches, and a much better combination puncher with better hand speed. Meaning that every time they got inside, they were simply punished. Overall, both of these fights ended up being brutal beatdowns. Both of these guys are similar to Marg IMO, although obviously not of the same calibre. The difference is though, that Cotto has improved as a boxer puncher since his time at 140, and his chin and stamina are now much better.

Looking at the Sosa fight, it showed again a fighter who was naturally longer in the body, with longer arms, yet who once again didn't like using his reach advantage. A guy who was a genuine world class contender, who gave Floyd a tough fight regardless of the scorecards, as well as giving Spadafora a tough test. Cotto however annihilated him, due to his distinct stylistic advantage. Being that he was once again, shorter, more compact defensively, more powerful and quicker as well from the inside. As well as being a better boxer than sosa from the outside. Basically meaning that Sosa had no option but to do what he does best, fight in close quarters, which lead to a brutal, yet systematic breakdown in a matter of rounds.

Margarito best chance is there is to use that brilliant workrate. To try and smother Cotto, and catch him with overhand rights and uppercuts, as well as mixing in the body work. This is where Cotto is most vunerable. However, Marg doesn't possess the movement to match Cotto around the ring, meaning that Cotto will fight this one at HIS pace. Marg will get sloppy no doubt as frustration builds, and due to his long body and less than great defense, will be put on the end of some very powerful punches.

My prediction: PAIN... Okay just kidding, i'm not Mr T. My serious prediction is that Cotto will beat him round after round after round. I wouldn't be suprised to see him win every round and stop Marg in the late rounds on punishment, much like he did to Bazan. The condition of Cotto in his training camp, and his recent form, and ability in recent fights, further cements this in my mind.

I am very very confident in this one. Marg is simply outclassed, against a guy who has a stylistic advantage. After Cotto wins this in impressive fashion, expect it to really turn heads. Cotto will finally get recognition as the one of the best fighters, if not THE best fighter in the world right now. Demand for the Mayweather fight will increase. The mayweather fight will happen, no question in my mind. Whether it happens after Marg though, or if he waits until Cotto unifies the division further is the big question. Mayweather knows that this will be his hardest fight of his career, and the one that will potentially definie his legacy. If he is going to take such a massive risk, he obviously wants to know the reward is there. I think he fully realises just how much a risk fighting Cotto will be, and as such expects a great reward for doing so. It will be very interesting to see how this pans out.

Cotto TKO 10. I also put my hand up for an avatar bet of 3 months for anyone willing to bet against Cotto!

 

Almost all had a reach advantage. Bazan and Pinto are very tall fighters, who had a big reach advantage. Even mosley has very long arms, and had a significant reach advantage coming into their fight.

Bazan was 5'11 with a 75 inch reach.

Pinto just under 5'11 as well.

Shane Mosley had a 74 inch reach.

Cotto has overcome all of this before.

Bazan in particular fights very similar to Margarito. A very young and green Cotto totally beat him down. Very good fight to watch.

 

Cotto is my favourite fighter in boxing, and i am admittedly biased, although i do try adn be objective. My tendacy if anything would be to exaggerate things on his behlaf. A closer fight is definitely a possibility, although i still stick to my initial post.

Although marg has had trouble against southpaws before, i don't know if he will switch in this one. Cotto does it more as an offensive tactic against counter punchers. I rarely if ever have seen him do this when being pressured.