In a nutshell here is what I think about this fight. Firstly, Cotto was cut in his last fight and who's to say that the cut would be healed 100%. Pacquiao throws punches that could open up the cut again and Pac is not Clottey and I see the fight ending early. Secondly, Cotto has been in hard fights pretty much back to back for some time now apart from the Jennings fight which was seen as his comeback fight. I feel that the timing of this fight will be the key to Pacquiao's victory and I feel that Cotto will struggle just coming off a hard fight with Clottey. There is alot of wear and tear there that may show up in this upcoming fight. Thirdly, to add to the list of things that seem to be working against Cotto at this time will be the extra couple of pounds that he will have to lose and who's to say that just because he weighed in at 146 that he was not struggling with the weight. To me, in the Clottey fight he looked a lot slower than I am used to seeing him, he has slowed down alot and this is almost a similar type of slow down that I have noticed in Carl Froch. Lastly, Freddie Roach to me knows exactly how to match his fighter so that the other fighters style is tailor made for Pac's style, hence the reason why they chose Cotto and not Mosley. I feel that Cotto will not be able to cope with Pac's speed and at 1st I was picking Cotto in this fight but after sitting down and looking at everything from a realistic standpoint, Freddie Roach would not make this fight if he did not think that Pacquiao had a chance. Really and truly if Pacquiao stops Cotto in under 5 rounds it would not surprise me one bit. I see Pacquiao making Cotto Quit on his stool in similar fashion to Oscar, whether or not he is weight drained or not I just believe that the timing of this fight is all wrong for Cotto and Cotto needs to just chill out and take a longer time off especially to make that cut heal properly. Some of you may disagree but if you cut through all the propaganda and hype this fight can be easy to call. Cotto is there for the taking and I believe he is already damaged goods.
Cotto has had plenty of time to heal up after the Clottey fight, and the fight has only just been announced. I suspect it will be okay by the time this fight actually comes off, but it could turn out to be an issue. Not really a huge issue to consider when determining the winner of the fight though. Likewise, Manny Pacquiao has not been getting to many competitive rounds under his belt now. This could work against him when he has to run into a fighter of Miguel Cotto's size and quality. We still don't know how Manny is going to handle a full blooded shot from a full blooded Welterweight. I suspect we will find out soon. I think it is a bad idea for Miguel to have to go below 147lb. He showed vunerabilities down at Junior Welterweight, and Manny had no problems with going to 147lb when he fought Oscar. He looked sensational in that fight. This could be a factor. Freddie is just a trainer, and he has been on the losing end many times during his career. Silly reasoning. Is Freddie Roach some kind of demi-god? Stop tuning into his daily chat shows, I mean, interviews. It would not surprise me, but it would be a fabulous achievement all the same. I think this is the perfect timing for Cotto to finally put himself back where he once was before the Margarito ordeal. Fighting a nobody is not going to help Miguel's career, it would just prolongue it unneccesarily. He would have had ample time to allow his nasty cut to heal by the time of fight night. I don't think this is an easy fight to call. Miguel has ways of winning this fight, and Manny's punch resistance still holds question marks. I can see reasoning for both men winning, but I don't consider Freddie Roach a huge factor. If Manny wins the fight it is because he is the better fighter, not because Freddie worked on some magic formula during the filming of 24/7. Let the best man win.
I agree that the circumstances don't seem ideal for Cotto considering what you said, plus the corner and personal issues he's been dealing with, but I think Cotto was really looking for a mega payday, which could be the best career move he's made, or the one that will once again send him backwards from where he was going into the Margo fight. I just hope he and Pacquiao can perform to the best of their ability and give us a great fight with the better boxer winning.
