I'm gonna be in the minority here but I think Cotto could put up a good fight and use his superior boxing skills to get a UD.
Kelly has to move down in weight to make 160 safely. This will not be an easy task. If he shows the will power and discipline to do so, then I'd favor him. At this point he has to prove to me he can still fight effectively at 160. I think once he put on the extra muscle, he should have stayed put. Time will tell. Overall, IF he can make 160 comfortably, it is probably his best long term strategy.
What's with the recent taste for midgets vs giants recently? There was Williams vs emmanuel poochiao and now this.
It seems most other fights around ww/jmw have been discussed. Hadnt heard about this one so i threw it out there Pavilk hasnt looked great against the top guys. Cotto has moved up and looked decent. I dont think its a totally crazy matchup. Pavlik would have quite a reach and height adv. though