It's a tough call. Hopkins has trouble with speed, but on the other hand, Hopkins fight smart, and does his research very well. Dawson like many offensive fighters tend to leave himself open. At high pace Hopkins could suffer. To me it could go either way.
I'm surprised that this thread hasn't been flooded with the "ducking Diaconu" talk. It's hard for me to doubt Hopkins after the Pavlik fight. Glen Johnson's a rough customer and he gave Dawson fits by simply going forward and trying to impose himself on Dawson. Hopkins could negate Dawson's punch output with his craftiness. His way of imposing himself is different and his bag of tricks is more vast. It's been said over and over but Hopkins has an uncanny ability to make opponents fight on his terms. That's the intangible that makes Hopkins who he is. We can sit here and illustrate all the strengths Dawson brings to the table but what difference would they make if Hopkins found a way to neutralize them? Dawson's size would be a major factor IMO as he is a true light heavy.
Workrate of Dawson will give him the edge in the fight. Yeah, I know Jones is washed up. Too bad he is not younger so I can see him beat Calzaghe. :-(