Crawford vs Spence - Betting Thread

Some odds of note:

Crawford - 150
Spence + 138
Draw +1400

Crawford pts +175
Crawford KO +225
Spence pts +260
Spence KO + 550

Goes the distance -190
Does not go +138
KO b/w 9-12 +400

Crawford KO 7-9 +700
Crawford KO 10-12 +800
Spence KO 7-9 +1200
Spence KO 10-12 +2000

At least one KD -110
No KDs -125

Thoughts: There's something here for everyone to like. As you can see, the odds are very close and have tightened a bit this week.

I think the best value plays are the late KO bets. If these guys truly push each other, I can foresee an exhausted fighter getting stopped late or the corner throwing in the towel. My opinion remains that Crawford is likely to win and I think there's a decent chance of a stoppage, and that +800 is a big shiny number for a late Crawford KO.

 

Friday morning update, odds have tightened slightly further but the prop bets are unchanged:

Crawford -145
Spence +130

 

You would be better off just betting less on one fighter. There's no way to outsmart the casino. I mean maybe you could find different sportsbooks with wildly different odds or something, but it seems unlikely.

What you can do to hedge is:

(1) Bet $50 on Fighter A to win at -120 (so you win about $45); and
(2) Bet $10 on Fighter B to win by KO in rounds 10-12 at +700

If you win (1), you net out at $35
If you win (2), you net out at $20

Or you're out $60. In the long run you are going to lose most likely, so I only ever bet "fun" amounts rather than take any real risk. It's just additional interest in the fight really.