My bookie opened the odds very recently. -360 Davis, +250 Garcia. Would not lay a -360 on Davis, even a fully motivated Davis. The +250 Garcia looks tempting. I'm surprised at the odds.
Garcia is not impressive outside of his height. But Davis has regressed. Fully motivated Davis would be a justfiably heavy favorite.
Those odds are wider than I would have expected. Tank has been more opportunistic at 135 than he was as a seek & destroy fighter at 130. I thought he would be only a very slight favorite. Interesting.
I think Davis should be a slight favorite, but not that wide. If Garcia keeps it long range and launch power shots from the outside, Garcia can win by decision or KO. People keep pointing to the Campbell fight, but Cambell is tall and rangy. Campbell barely caught Garcia at the end of his punch. Davis is short and stubby. He may be explosive, but I don't he will be able to catch Garcia easily. If Garcia sticks to his game plan and not get caught, he should win this fight.
Those odds are about what I expected tbh. Have to remember that bookies' odds aren't necessarily representative of what the outcome will be, but of what the public's opinion of the outcome will be (so that the bookies make a profit by incentivising maximal money to be bet on the fight). And most people favor Davis, which is reflected in the odds.
