NOBODY beat the HELL out of Hopkins not even the Klits. But Dawson will give Hopkins a good fight. Who ever executes the best wins. I have Hopkins winning 7-5.
Dawson is skilled and good defensively himself, he's also very fast. Yeah Dawson takes rounds off, but if he wanted to he could give someone a beating just like he did against Harding and Adamek. Because Dawson is accurate and has very fast hands, it will be hard for Hopkins to counter Dawson. All Dawson has to do is pull the trigger enough and he will land punches, no matter how good defensively you are. And at Hopkins age, it will be difficult for him to counter Dawson because of his low work-rate.
Dawson has speed and good, straight punches that will give Hopkins something to think about, but he's not active enough. In his last fighht, Dawson allowed the shorter Diaconu to have his moments because he fought in spurts. This suits Hopkins perfectly, and he would also make Dawson's jab less effective by using angles and moves. Hopkins wins a decision if Dawson fights at the same activity level as in his last two fights.
Hopkins has a style weakness to fast 2 handed fighters his own size, and often cant beat fighters of this description. I cant call the fight at this time, but I dont know how Dawson will handle it when Hopkins starts hitting low, illegally holding and putting the head in.
I doubt Hopkins will fight him. It's the fight he hasn't wanted for years. Dawson style is all wrong for him. If he does though it will be with not much to lose now. At 46, and having achieved the oldest champ record, no-one is going to hold a loss against him, and he knows the super six winner would probably fight him and give him another shot even if he does lose to Dawson
Diaconu is a puncher/counter-puncher, Dawson was being cautious. But I do agree with you that Dawson was being a little too cautious, and he could have done more offensively. But Dawson recently switched trainers, and he's still adapting to Stewards training methods. I expect Dawson to increase his work-rate and look better offensively than he did against Diaconu. And if Dawson increases his work-rate enough he can get Hopkins out of there.
Dawson is capable of winning if he can get off with his shots but I would be shocked if he stopped Hopkins. Dawson isn't a noted puncher, not having had a stoppage in over 3 years and Hopkins is as tough and cagey as they come. Whatever the outcome it's gonna go to a decision.
Hopkins should win this without too much trouble. Dawson didn't look good in his last 2 fights. No will, low activity, no killer instinct and in his last fight he didn't seem to have good power. Hopkins will win without too much trouble if it's the same Dawson.
Dawson isn't Pascal, he's much more skilled, and he's very fast and accurate. If Hopkins were to win, it will not be easy for him. I see this as a 50/50 fight, either Dawson by blowout, or Hopkins by close decision.