Deontay Leshun Wilder vs. Anthony Oluwafemi Olaseni Joshua

As a long time hater of Joshua who's been picking Wilder to win by KO for quite a long time, as the fight itself draws nearer (let's hope), I haven't had a change of heart necessarily, merely I've developed a slightly more nuanced take. Part of that is due to me easing up on Joshua a bit, I predicted he'd lose to both Ruiz to the round, and predicted his losses to Usyk for 7 years. So now that they've come to pass, I no longer have an sadistic axe to grind or the urge to relentlessly batter him. The world has now seen the limitations of Anthony Joshua that I saw for years. Great... he was being vastly overrated, okay... duly noted, now get over it and stop overreacting and now underrating the hell out of him.

The reality is, this match is the definition of 50/50. Let us not forget, Wilder was soundly outboxed for 4 of 5 rounds by Gerald Washington, 6 rounds by Artur Szpilka, and lost 12 rounds in total to Luis Ortiz. While sure, Artur and Luis were southpaws, and it's not fair to compare them to AJ. Anthony Joshua even in this timid state, is still much better than Washington. Cut the ****, Wilder is a terrible boxer, the Tyson Fury he fought thrice is by far the worst sloppiest versions we've seen of Fury to date, and he lost virtually every round he didn't drop Fury in. So... are we really supposed to believe that Anthony Joshua with his far superior footwork, far superior jab, far superior defense, far superior punch selection and debatably, slightly superior chin. Isn't going to box Wilder's ears off for at the very least, 4 or 5 rounds? Now, when I say superior chin, let's analyze shall we? Sure, he got dropped by Ruiz four times. But he was also clearly concussed from that temple shot combined with being exhausted. So not all that dissimilar from what happened to Wilder in his second match against Fury. The shot that put him down, was on the ear, it negatively affected his equilibrium until the TKO stoppage. So those two stoppage losses are somewhat comparable. Which means we have to turn to other matches to compare their chins far more accurately.

In Wilder-Fury III, the right hook that puts Wilder down in the third round, was almost a slap on the temple. He was completely gone, had that happened earlier in the round, Fury would've most likely stopped him. Thankfully for Deontay, it was like 15 seconds left in the round. Then Fury proceeded to rock him to his core with every right he landed for the rest of the match. Wilder was out on his feet for the 8 rounds before being KTFO. Now you can argue, well... that shows how good Wilder's chin is! But does it? In my opinion, it merely highlights how weak it is. Fury is not a big puncher, he couldn't get Wallin out of there and it took teeing off on Chisora for 10 rounds, before they mercy stopped the fight. But not once was Chisora truly in bad shape or close to being KTFO, even Joseph Parker and Gerald Washington had him in worse shape. So there's an argument to be made that Deontay's chin is absolutely atrocious. Whereas Anthony Joshua's might be being underrated now. What the hell would that straight right from hell that Wlad landed have done to Deontay Wilder? Joshua had to survive for a half a round after that and he did. Now remember, this is coming on the heels of an absolutely brutal 5th round. After he dropped Wlad, Wlad came back to land an absolutely hairraising number of violent uppercuts, flush left hooks and rights, most of which would've felled lesser competition. If anyone is even entertaining the notion that Wilder would've survive that onslaught in the 5th and knockdown in the 6th, they're flat out delusional. Then of course, Joshua was hurt badly in the 12th against Usyk and completely dead on his feet, yet somehow he made it to the final bell without going down. I'm not entirely sure Wilder would have. So sure, both have shaky whiskers, but all evidence points towards Wilder's being the shakier of the two.

So are we to believe that Wilder who's been outboxed by far lesser talents and tagged quite clean early, is capable of standing up to a straight right from a guy who arguably has as much one punch power as he does, if not, only slightly less? This won't be The Gypsy Queen of The Featherfists landing flush. This will be a guy who obliterated a healthy Povetkin with one punch, in far more impressive fashion than Whyte did against a stiffed kneed Covid infested shell of Povetkin with the balance of a shitfaced alky stumbling out of a bar at 5 in the morning. A guy who did exactly the same to Helenus as Wilder did. Sure, maybe if Wilder comes out like a bat out of hell looking to land a home run out of the gate. But when has he ever done that? Wilder has always been risk averse, going all the way back to his first fight against Stiverne. And we're supposed to believe a guy who was skittish against a 80 old Cuban grandfather and a blubbery depressive coke fiend shell of a man who couldn't KO Francesco Pianeta, is going to bumrush a guy with power to equal his? Yeah, that ain't gonna ****ing happen. Wilder will be aware of the risks and box cautiously as he always does. AJ will be aware of the risk and box cautiously as he always does. Which means, whoever has the more sound fundamentals, will probably land first and cleaner. Will Wilder get back up if AJ lands with full force? Not sure, he was KTFO by Fury. Will AJ get back up if Wilder lands full force? Maybe, Wlad couldn't keep him down, and he's yet to be straight up KO'd to date. But you may say, AJ lacks confidence, yes... and so does Wilder. Helenius fought him like an idiot, and jumped chin first into a right. Who knows how Wilder would've reacted against the version that fought AJ. The reality is, the moment Wilder tastes a power shot, he'll start having flashbacks of being KO'd too. The people thinking AJ can't win by KO, again... are deluding themselves.