Deontay Wilder vs Anthony Joshua Breakdown & Prediction

If you would’ve asked most boxing fans a couple months ago who would win between Joshua and Wilder, the vote would be a majority in favor of Joshua by KO. Now, after knocking out former WBC Champion Bermane Stiverne in the early first round in brutal fashion, you have many favoring Wilder to stop Joshua in the early rounds. But after watching countless footage and fights of both men and analyzing each of their resumes and skill sets, I don’t think the ball should be in Wilder’s favor if/when they do fight each other.

Resume

First, let’s take a look at both men’s resume. Wilder’s top four best wins are against Stiverne (who he has beaten twice), Spilka, Washington, and Aerola. Joshua’s top four best wins are against Kitchsko, Whyte, Martin, and Takkam. As you can see, by comparing both fighter’s resume, it is very clear that Joshua has the better resume by a mile. Joshua’s win against Wlad is ten times better than Stiverne which is Wilder’s best win. I also consider Whyte and Takkam to be head and shoulders above Aerola, Washington, and Stiverne. So, I believe the experience advantage is in Joshua’s favor since he has fought better fighters compared to Wilder. I understand that the Wlad that Joshua fought was out of his prime but I still hold that win in higher regards because that Wlad is clearly better than any fighter Wilder has fought. I also believe that the Wlad from the Joshua fight would beat Wilder(that is a debate for another time)

Skills and Physicality

Now, let’s look at the skills and physicality of both men. Wilder is 6”7 with an 83” reach while Anthony Joshua is 6”6 with an 82” reach. Wilder is the taller fighter with more reach while Anthony Joshua is the physically stronger fighter (Joshua weighs in at 250 while Wilder weighs in a 227.) Both men have immense punching power (Wilder has won 38 of his 39 bouts by KO and Joshua has won all 20 of his fights by KO) Looking at both, I would say Wilder has the better raw power compared to Joshua but it is not by much. If I was to rate both fighter’s power on a scale from 1 to 10, it would be Wilder with 9.5 and Joshua with a solid 9. Wilder wins in the departments of stamina, hand speed, athleticism, height, reach, power (not by much), and he also has a pretty good jab and has improved it immensely. But outside of those categories he doesn’t do anything else better than Joshua. Joshua has the better footwork, balance, defense, jab, tools, combinations, and he is able to knock his opponents out in more of a variety of ways.

Conclusion/Who would win?

I have this fight 60/40 in favor of Joshua. I think Joshua is the more skilled and polished fighter plus he has the advantage in experience since he has fought much better fighters. Now, let me be clear, it is not Wilder’s fault that his potential best opponents all got busted for PEDs. We just cannot give him credit for fights that didn’t happen. Povetkin and Ortiz are levels above Stiverne, Washington, Spilka, and Aerola so I don’t know if Wilder would’ve won those fights or not. Sure, Wilder has great one-punch power but we have seen, in the past, that when a fighter steps up in competition their KO% goes down.

Now, there are some flaws that Joshua have that Wilder could exploit. I know many of you are thinking, “Well, what about when Wlad dropped Joshua with a right hand? That’s Wilder’s bread and butter?” You are correct but Wlad punches with better technique and he doesn’t telegraph his right hand like Wilder does. And let’s not forget that Wlad is one of the top 10 hardest punching heavyweights in boxing history with a better resume compared to Wilder. What’s so impressive about Joshua in that bout against Wlad is the fact that he got up, recovered, and ended up stopping Wlad. I don’t think Wilder would’ve been able to do the same due to the fact that no fighter has ever taken him into deep waters. Joshua does have stamina issues which could potentially put him in harms way against Wilder but he makes up for it with his superior boxing skill set. I also believe that the Wladimir fight made Joshua a much better fighter. I noticed in the Takkam fight that Joshua wasn’t getting hit with the straight right as much which is essential against a guy like Wilder.

Wilder may be the better athlete with the better power but there are a lot more flaws that Joshua can exploit compared to the flaws that Wilder could exploit against Joshua. For one, Wilder has a tendency to be off balance when he throws punches. Don’t believe me? Go back and watch Wilder vs Spitzka, Wilder vs Stiverne 1, and Wilder vs Molina. It wouldn’t take much for Joshua to counter and drop Wilder who gets clumsy at times. I’ve also noticed that Wilder has a tendency to throw punches with his chin up. The first thing a boxer learns when he starts boxing is to never leave your chin up. Always keep your chin tucked with your guard up. We saw what happened to Wlad when Joshua hit him with an uppercut. This particular tendency would put Wilder in the line of fire against Joshua’s uppercuts which could potentially lead to a KO. Wilder’s footwork has progressed but it’s still below average compared to other boxers. Footwork and balance is essential in boxing especially in the heavyweight division. What’s impressive about Wilder is how good of a finisher he is. When Wilder has you hurt, he goes in for the kill. That’s fine, so long as you don’t go in swinging wildly. Did I also forget to mention that Joshua is the better counterpuncher with better accuracy? I think if Wilder was to try to go in and windmill against Joshua he would get countered and potentially stopped. Joshua has too much of a high boxing iq to just sit there and let Wilder T off on him like that. All in all this is a 60/40 fight favoring Joshua in my opinion. The lack of quality opposition will come back and haunt Wilder, and Joshua is just the better overall fighter. Thoughts?