Diego Pacheco vs. Maciej Sulęcki & José Eduardo Núnez Navarro vs. Miguel Ángel Tehran Marriaga RBR.

I been overthinking the Pacheco fight like crazy these last two days.


Didnt really care about this fight until I saw that the fight to go the distance was like +350.... so then I thought, Macs a tough cagey vet whose never been stopped, has high quality experience against a hyped puncher, I really like these odds. And Mac is unlikely to do much damage to Pacheco. So at first these seemed like pretty good odds. So foolishly I bet big on it going the distance before really taking a closer look at the fight.

Then I start double checking my bets and hadnt noticed how inactive Mac has been. Very inactive. Then I see his recent opposition has been horrible. I go to watch some of his fights for a refresher and I see he gets rocked hard and dropped twice by Rosado. I watch him and while hes not horrible, hes not as cagey as I remember and not as tough. That was in his prime.

I watch Pacheco, very basic fighter but still, a solid one, one who patiently approaches his task while mixing in punches that can change the fight (against subpar comp) at any moment, and if he has you hurt he seems to be a decent finisher.

So I change my bets to over 6.5 for -110 instead of going the distance for +350.

But all day at work Im thinking about this fight and playing it in my head... and I start seriously doubting if Mac can make that 7th round. I think first couple rounds might be slow but as Pacheco starts getting closer, and the size starts to get imposing, Mac starts feeling the power, I think hes going to unravel a bit and I dont think he has the physicality to hang in there.

So after work I drove to the city I need to be in to place my bets and I canceled any large bet I had for the over lol. (Kept some small parlays with the over in though just in case).

So Im interested in seeing how the fight plays out.

I expect Pacheco to finish Mac somewhere between the 4th and 7th. If this fight goes the distance I will be genuinely surprised now, and will kick myself for bailing on my bets lol.