Do People's Expectations & False Perceptions Of Reality, Affect Their Judgement While Scoring?

Look, this thread in no way is meant to blow smoke up my ass, or up the ass of @IntentionalButt (well, maybe a little). While I personally think most of our scorecards far more closely reflect the reality of what's occurring in the ring, many people have certainly had their disagreements. Maybe their disagreements are valid, maybe they aren't. But often times, fans of both fighters can see a match in a completely different light, and seems to hinder their appraisal of what's actually occurring in the ring to a degree. Now sure, close competitive matches can cause a split, and people will end up seeing what they want to see, especially when it's between two elite fighters, with vociferous fanbases. But that's not really what I'm talking about here.

I've noticed a pattern, myself and a handful of other fans/posters, will have seen a potential unheralded opponent, usually deemed a bum by detractors and an easy win by fans, far more times than the casuals that populate the popular fighter's fanbase. So, while the hardcores are predicting a far tougher fight than most are expecting. When the supposed bum/easy win, starts performing better than expected, I think there's a degree of denial fans go through before it thoroughly clicks that their guy is losing rounds, or maybe the momentary inability to process what's happening accurately. Because usually with most things, especially people with fixed thought patterns, they're slow to make adjustments. That can often negatively affect their judgment, and hamper their ability to process what's happening right before their eyes. Because there's a learning curve they must go through, before they can adjust their expectations and start seeing the reality of what's actually occurring. Well if anything, devout fanboys more often than not, are the definition of inflexible. Usually, and I've seen this on several RBR's, people are slow to adjust, when their fighter starts losing rounds, sometimes right out of the gate. So it takes them three or four to finally give the opponent a round. I'm not entirely sure this expectation game warping of reality, doesn't affect the official judges as well. Like what happened with Canelo vs. Bivol. Did it take them 4 or 5 rounds to have what was actually happening finally click? Perhaps.

Granted, it's not out of the question, the people who do expect a tougher fight, don't end up falling into a slight pattern of confirmation bias ourselves, and end up being extra generous, in rounds the "opponent" is being extra competitive in, but more often than not, it's the A-side that's always being given the benefit of the doubt as opposed to the B-side.

Then there's the false perception of reality bias that comes into effect. I covered this in a thread I did over a half a decade ago, called the phenomenon of the terrible opening round. Two good examples being Pascal vs. Yunieski Gonzalez, where YG came out like a steamroller and beat the living hell out of Pascal, who looked on the verge of a stoppage loss in the first round. That was the epitome of a terrible opening round, so much so, it seemed to cloud the minds of many of the viewers for the remainder of the match. Because they were now under the false impression/perception that Gonzalez was having far more success than he actually was. Gonzalez was swinging like a madman, many of the shots were just missing by a hair while Pascal was ducking under them, and counter with looping overhands out of a crouched position. Now don't get me wrong, it was a close fight, 96-94 ether way or 95-95 were all feasible scores. But by no means was it even close to the robbery it was made out to be.

Same thing happened with the first encounter between Froch and Groves. One couldn't have a worse round than Carl, sans literally getting KTFO. Froch got KTFO, somehow managed to wake up right before he hit the mat, and had already popped back up relatively quickly, and had already recalibrated his iron chin to titanium by the round's end, eating a flush nasty one two. So, that had everyone primed and ready to see The Cobra, knocked spark the **** out. They thought Carl was toast and his goose was cooked. So much so, most didn't realize that the 2nd round, 3rd round and 5th rounds were actually quite competitive and could've gone either way. But, it's hard not to be influenced by Jim Watt's rantings and ravings about the end being nigh. So to many, they were shocked when Froch pulled out the stoppage. Whereas I wasn't, because it was apparent to anyone watching with a clear head, that Froch was starting to inflict more and more damage as the rounds were going by, until the inevitable happened. It's just a pity that the ref waved it as soon as he did. Had he let it continue for another minute or two, the stoppage would've been far more definitive.

Then there's the feared power punchers that every is expecting to win by KO, and early, so they're on a tinderbox, biting on every feint and missed shot, thinking it's chopping down an opponent. Reading into the ultra negative body language of the opponent, who's scared of taking a flush punch from said dangerous power puncher. All the while, that scared opponent who's being backed up and bossed around the ring, he's landing jabs and counters, while slipping the incoming fire. So you get what we got in back to back matches with Berlanga. Steve Rolls was clearly boxing his ears off, while Berlanga was landing next to nothing. Yet their perception of reality was so off, they couldn't judge it properly. Then the same happened again with the Roamer Alexis Angulo fight, which thank God, more people happened to see clearly. Primarily due to Angulo walking Berlanga down, albeit in a safety first conservative manner. While all Berlanga was doing was throwing jabs and one twos into the forearms of the Colombian. None of which are scoring shots, just like with Canelo vs. Bivol again.

Then of course, we have matches like Sor Rungvisai vs. Gonzalez 1, Estrada vs. Gonzalez 2, Horn vs. Pacquiao, Cruz vs. Davis, Richards vs. Buatsi, Taylor vs. Catterall, Korobov vs. Charlo, Derevyanchenko vs. GGG, Jacobs and Charlo etc. Where their perceptions of reality are being shattered left and right, and they lose all ability to process what's happening. In some cases, they're giving the A-side far too much credit for perceived successes, in others, not giving the A-side enough credit, because the B-side is overperforming. But also in denial, and refusing to see what's in front of them, and how the rounds are too close to call, and need to be watched under a microscope. Or a little of all of the above. A good example would be GGG vs Derevyanchenko. People were so shocked to see GGG hurt to the body for a second, they started thinking SD had a chance, and started overstating his successes. Meanwhile, they though Sor Rungvisai dropping Chocolatito was a fluke, and wasn't noticing the devastating counter lefts than Sor Rungvisai was pulverizing Roman with for the next 11 rounds. Short circuiting many viewers to the point where they had to go back and rewatch what happened to see it correctly, and even then, many remained in denial.

Look, I'll admit, I can occasionally fall into the confirmation bias loop, because I expect an opponent I'm well versed in, to do better than everyone else. But that doesn't always mean I'm in the wrong either. Sometimes it takes everyone else a round or two to catch up. Although sometimes, I will edge a round that's action packed and hard to score towards the B-side, usually because I genuinely thought they did enough to edge it. But it could be a subconscious bias coming into play. Although will the rest of you admit to your potential blind spots and foibles? Maybe you will. So, what do you think about these observations of mine? Am I nuts, or onto something? How often do you think stuff like this comes into play and can be factored into people's assessments of controversial fights?

 

You literally can't resist making everything about Canelo can you?