Does Povetkin have a chance of beating Wlad?

No I would not be surprised if Wlad won. By the way KobeIsGod I am definitely up for a more constructive discussion of this topic.

 

Not a Snowballs chance in hell.

 

i dont even give that man a punchers chance

 

Wlad fights like a confused man these days but Povetkin is too inexperienced to take real advantage. Wlad will probably just jab him into submission.

 

Sure he has a chance, just the same chance that James Toney has of coming into his next fight with 5% body fat! ;-) (it's not 5% body fat that's the problem, not the FIRST 5% anyway!!)

Povetkin could not put away an aged Larry Donald, light fisted and fairly small Chambers and barley finished off a shot Chris Byrd.

I don't care about his amateur background, this is pro boxing and Wlad is one of the top 2 active heavyweights. He is a very good fighter, but too small to compete with talented super heavyweights. I give him at least a 50% chance against any non-Klitschko HW today.

Against Wlad, I give him a 1 in 8 chance. (against a healthy Vitali, perhaps 1 in a million)

He should fight Valuev instead, I gave him over 50% for that one.

 

U made some good points. I think Povetkin is a real talent. I am impressed by his inside combinations. He delivers with speed and sharpness. I admire his will and aggressive approach.

However, I just feel Wlad will be able to control distance to negate Sasha's inside advantages. Wlad will accomplish this through constant foot movement, jabbing, utilizing his left hand extended to push Povetkin to the side, clinching.

Against Byrd, Chambers and Donald (his best opposition) he didn't have this to worry about, especially in regards to movement and clinching. Wlad has become very adept under steward at leaning on his opponent to drain their energy.

One thing I have noticed about Povetkin is he tends to languish at range for extended periods of times. Yes he is aggressive but there are times when he plants himself at distance. He will get crushed doing this against wlad. Povetkin must be constantly be on the attack and attempt to pressure wlad into another famous "panic attack".

I am interested to see how he reacts to the clinching as well. Haven't seen povetkin in the clinch too much in his pro fights ive seen.

Povetkin, overall, is probably the best opponent wlad has faced. However, his lack of power and lateral movement will be a major issue in the fight.

Im thinking wlad stops him between rounds 7 and 9.

With regards to your points regarding superior handspeed, u might be right. However, povetkin must be in close to deliver his shots. I don't think he can consistently get inside the klitschko reach. As for his defense, I don't see it. Lacks lateral and head movement. I didn't see it against Chambers or Byrd. Tell me a fight i can look at so i can maybe get a better persepctive or i can at least see he is capable of such movements

 

Hope this doesn't become Wlad / Ibragimov part II.

Wlad stoppage inside 8 rounds is a good prediction, perhaps by the corner throwing in the towel.

 

If Povetkin can get the timing of Wlad's jab down, or if Wlad paws it out there and leaves his left extended out for too long (a mistake he has been making a lot since hooking up with Manny), then Povetkin could have some great opportunities to counter.

Both men have attributes that can very seriously trouble the other.

 

The same Byrd who had only been stopped twice going into the fight and went 30 rounds with both Klitschko brothers. No one said he hits as hard as Wlad, but how many people were favoring a 13 fight pro to stop Byrd going into that fight?

As far as Donald, Larry has only been stopped by one man, Vitali Klitschko. Last I checked Vitali has the highest KO ratio of any heavyweight champ in history.

 

You dont have to be the fastest, or even the most accurate to land on Wlad, Peter was able to get shots in on the inside. When Wlad goes to clinch, keep punching until the ref has to break it up, even while in the clinch, Povetkin should try and shove his forearm into Wlad's throat, in attempt to break the clinch, he may get a warning, but Wlad will more and likely be warned too for clinching. Povetkin needs to be the bully in there, make it a fight, not a boxing match. If he can take Wlad out of jab and grab mode, he may find himself with openings to that very weak chin of Wlad's.

 

yes if wlad becomes passive and doesn't make povetkin pay for lunging in, this could be a real fight. i think the brewster 2 gameplan is the perfect framework for wlad. constant jabbing and short but quick movements. stand your ground but give different angles. thompson gave wlad a lot of trouble early due to his length, southpaw style and high guard. this is a totally different type of opponent. but i think i should point out wlad adjusted his gameplan midfight. he abandoned the jab and right cross and started to throw lead right hands and lead body shots. it's an important trait - the ability to recognize your ineffectiveness mid-fight and adjust.

and yes both have attributes that can bother one another...however, wlad has the experience against orthodox aggressive fighters to utilize and the closest thing Povetkin has faced to wlad is probably eddie chambers >> i.e. good jab, stright right hand

 

this is true but Peter was willing and able to absorb massive punishment to land his one punch. He couldn't land any combinations just single blows. Peter was attacking the whole fight up until midway through the last round when he got caught with that massive hook.

this is the hardest style for wlad to deal with. pure aggression. povetkin is aggressive but he's not reckless like peter imo. the punches that had wlad in trouble weren't the straight ones but the wild clubbing shots. Povetkin doesn't punch like that (much more polished) and is far more selective when attacking an opponent, which is to wlad's advantage imo. Don't forget....Peter has very long arms for a man his height. that might have been another factor on why he was able to loop those punches on the back of wlad's head while in close.

and povetkin is gonna have trouble with the clinches. wlad is far stronger and sasha just doens't have the experience like wlad in those situations.

 

When it comes to reach, size, mobility and style Donald is closer to Wlad than Eddie.

 

Thanks for checking out my post!

True on both counts, however:

1. Povetkin arguably did not fight the "same Byrd" that the Klitschko's did in 2000. Plus, 2008 Wlad is not as beatable as year 1998 to 2004 Wlad.

2006 Wlad vs. 2006 Byrd wasn't close.


2. Larry is a durable opponent, tough to look good against. However, Vit did stop him in 2002. Povetkin did not manage to stop a 40 year old Donald.

I feel that Povetkin's lack of size and "merely good" KO percentage (which will probably decline the longer he fights) and recent opposition don't indicate a likely win for Povetkin. You never know which side of Wlad will show up on any given night, so that will make it interesting.

I think he needs to give Wlad a bloody lip quickly to make him scared, otherwise it's probably over for Povetkin.

 

Alright, howabout if Wlad wins, I wear any avatar until June and if Povetkin wins, you wear an avatar I choose for 2 years? You're very sure in a Wlad win and the odds will be something like 4/1 at the very least, so it's a fair deal.