Does the Ghost have a shot at beating Berto? (Technical thread)

The bookies actually favors Berto overall. Probably by Knock Out.

 

very tough fight for Guerrero. it is possible, but not probable for a win. I am rooting for Guerrero.

 

Yeah they do...thats why I said if it goes the distance :good

Berto KO 13/8

Guerrero KO 5/1

Berto points 11/4

Guerrero points 9/4

Nice odds on a Berto decision which is always a possibility

 

Good analysis by the TS. I agree Berto should be favourite. But I'm not putting anything down on this fight cause you never know how Berto is going be coming off a lay-off and getting busted for steroids.

 

I refuse to learn and work with that system, I like the
1.66(Berto) 26.00(Draw) 2.25(Guerrero) system of betting odds.

 

From my experience 1.65 and 1.70 odds for a favorite means uncertainty from the bookies.

 

this right here guys is one of the shittiest posters on esb. He's dumber than Puga_no_nuts. Puga is just more annoying

 

Great game-plan SJS19. Always thought the jab would be important if Guerrero wanted to compete, and I like the focus on switching between the shoulder and the face. One thing he should fix is throwing with his chin tucked under the shoulder. Like a lot of fighters that commonly have a height advantage, he throws below shoulder level and leaves himself open. Against Berto, he will have no refuge, so tighten up the guard and the straight shots.

The straight to the solar plexus is also ace, great way to get low and avoid the straight right over the top while lowering his guard and stopping his forward momentum. Body punching in general is something he should do more of in spots.

Lateral movement is key, I think he should also add some shoe-shining on the inside; Berto is real dangerous there, throws good combinations and a mean right uppercut, but they're thrown with power in mind, not in quick succession for scoring. If Guerrero finds himself in the pocket, he should throw in volume and circle the **** out while holding, and restart.

Ultimately, Guerrero can do all of these things, but I've never seen him put them all together well enough to give me confidence. He doesn't seem to understand the subtle inches stepping forwards and backwards that allow him to hit and not get hit consistently. He might box well early and take advantage of his better movement, but Berto has good timing with his power punches and doesn't get discouraged easily, so I think he'll get closer until either Guerrero obliges him on the inside and fades as he gets thudded, or gets caught open at range with a hard power punch.

 

Props to the OP for his post. I like Guerrero. I always enjoy watching a really good stand up boxer or boxer/puncher. However, I have a feeling that Robert is out of his depth at 147. I'm rooting for him, but . . .:conf

 

:rofl foreal?

 

Hoping the Ghost takes this in style. And good strat analysis.

 

In the end I just don't think Ghost defense is good enough to withstand Bertos offense assualts. And if h tries to trade with Berto he is losing those as well.

 

I got Guerrero winning by UD, all I will say is.

We all know Berto was outboxed by Collazo and Ortiz and you dont need to knock him out to beat him, all you need is to have a solid game plan based on attacking him early and keeping that pace throughout the whole fight. It's important not to let Berto to utilize his speed and get within range of throwing those uppercuts. Andre wont be able to adjust and will find it hard winning rounds if Guerrero is focused which he will be. A fighter attempting to decision Berto has a great chance of winning.

Guerrero won his last 4 fights by decision.

 

Haven't' seen the Collazo fight but Guerrero would never be able to do what Ortiz done, simply because they are different type of fighters.

 

Berto(e)'s not an inside fighter at all. He's built like one, but he's actually the opposite. He's great on the outside, where his perception, fast twitch muscles and torque on his shots are at their peek. Look at the Quintana fight:

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcgQUh49TWI[/ame]

Every meaningful shot he lands, is when he gives himself enough space, long range. But the opposite is also apparent, that Quintana's best shots were landed on the inside at close range. Collazo and Ortiz both showed that Berto(e)'s defense on the inside is severely lacking.

Guerrero's issue is that he's not good enough defensively to avoid Berto all night, and not large enough to push and bully Berto(e) to where he wants him. Against the ropes, close range, where the steam is take off of Andre's shots and where he has almost zero clinch game.

Robert is going to have to spoil a bit the first half of the fight, where Andre is his most dangerous. The Ghost is not as good, fast or as powerful as Berto(e) on the outside, so closing the gap with lateral movement, jabbing, falling in with his power shots and clinching is gonna have to be plan of attack early. Later on, when Andre's gas tank shows it's normal waning pattern, Robert can try and press the issue more and start to increase the pressure. And when that big body of Berto(e)'s betrays him again, he can really increase the pace.

In reality though, I feel Robert is gonna get caught by something early (probably that powerful right of Andre's) and he's either gonna try and survive for the rest of the match or have an early night.