Does Wilder AJ happen if Wilder beats Fury in low performing PPV?

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by andrewa1, Nov 20, 2018.


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  1. andrewa1

    andrewa1 Boxing Addict banned Full Member

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    I never said 50, I said near 50. I could see it going as low as 40 and as high as 50, depending on the specific contours of the fight performance (i.e, maybe overall take is bad but UK ppv does well, despite the bad time) But I think 45 would be fair and in line with historical precedent.
     
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    #31
  2. andrewa1

    andrewa1 Boxing Addict banned Full Member

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    That would be a huge success beyond most expectations on here. Anyone know what that would translate to for each fighters take at 50/50? 650k times 70 would be about 45 million. Overhead maybe half of that? Couple mil extra each for gate and UK ppv? Maybe 12 to 15 mil per fighter? @KiwiMan would that be the ballpark? What about if it did 500k, 250k, 100k?
     
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    #32
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  3. KiwiMan

    KiwiMan Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Yes, those numbers look about right if Wilder-Fury does 650k buys. However I reckon it's only going to do about 300k .... but we shall see.

    500k maybe 8-10M each
    250k maybe 5-6M each
    100k maybe 2M or so
     
    KiwiMan, Nov 21, 2018
    KiwiMan, Nov 21, 2018
    #33
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  4. andrewa1

    andrewa1 Boxing Addict banned Full Member

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    Yeah, that's about what I was thinking. 300k would be a promising first PPV historically, and while the earnings from that number would only about a third of what AJ would earn in the UK against Wilder, realistically, it would probably auger for a much bigger second ppv performance for Wilder against AJ. So, while AJ could probably still earn a bit more in the UK, home field advantage has a big dollar value. If he wanted home field advantage, 300k performance by Wilder is probably sufficient to make US realistic enough of a venue for Hearn offer close to 50% in order to have a UK fight with all the advantages that would provide to AJ. I think they could make a deal with Wilder under that scenario.

    So, hopefully it gets at or near 300k. I can't help but have concerns it will pull a Ward Kovalev and come in under 200k.
     
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    #34
  5. KiwiMan

    KiwiMan Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Yes, that is a genuine possibility.

    But to be honest, even if it does 300k Wilder isn't getting particularly close to 50%, even in the UK. I don't see Hearn offering more than 40% tbh, maybe after negotiation they can get it a few percentages higher but that's it. Wilder would need something like 700k+ ppv buys to have a realistic shot at 50-50 or close to it.

    It's a little like Canelo-GGG, although GGG was more established than Wilder is now (that could change after Fury fight of course) he only got 30% or slightly more.
     
    KiwiMan, Nov 21, 2018
    KiwiMan, Nov 21, 2018
    #35
  6. Crixus139

    Crixus139 Member Full Member

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    Thread stinks of blurring the lines between boxing for honors i.e the belts and commercialism i.e. the big money (A side etc).

    AJ = money and 3 belts. W = maybe money (lets see after fury fight) and WBC belt.

    If Wilder stinks out the PPV buys but wins, he can still unify for boxing glory. AJ will fight him won't he, but only if winder recognises his place in the commercial market. If wilder fails to do that, thus fight not happening, who's fault is?
     
    Crixus139, Nov 21, 2018
    Crixus139, Nov 21, 2018
    #36
  7. greenhornet

    greenhornet Boxing Addict Full Member

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    i doubt it breaks 100k. haven't heard one person utter a single word about it here.
     
    greenhornet, Nov 21, 2018
    greenhornet, Nov 21, 2018
    #37
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  8. andrewa1

    andrewa1 Boxing Addict banned Full Member

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    We'll have to see. First, when I say "close to 50", I mean over 40%. But you are the second person to dispute close to 50 is near 40, so maybe I should just say "over 40" from now on. 300 k would be almost twice as much as GGG ever had on PPV before Canelo. It would be more in line with Pac Mayweather, with two fighters in high dollar figures but one clearly better, which I think was just over 40%.
     
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    #38
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  9. andrewa1

    andrewa1 Boxing Addict banned Full Member

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    I don't think we ever made it an official bet, but you had said you thought it would do under 100 k or at least below Kov Ward numbers (170k) and I said it would do better than that a long time ago on an earlier thread.

    I haven't been impressed with recent coverage of it, and am starting to think you may be right that it doesn't do any better than Ward Kov. That said, I'll still name drop you in a thread (i.e. @greenhornet ) and give you props if we find out it does that bad. Care to do the same thing if it comes in over 200k for me? If its between 170k and 200 then lets just forget about it.
     
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    andrewa1, Nov 21, 2018
    #39
  10. Secret Service US

    Secret Service US New Member banned Full Member

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    AJ’s contract with Sky Sports Expired after the Parker fight. He could’ve
    fought on BT Sport if he really wanted
    to force it through. I believe AJ has bigger problems when it comes to fighting in the US, I don’t think he can
    get hold of a Visa for more than 90 days because of his past drug dealing convictions

    Also Wilder (Al Haymon backed) will not be fighting on DAZN anytime soon. Joshua v Wilder will only happen if it’s on Showtime PPV in the US. Why
    would Wilder and Haymon help Eddie Hearn’s US Venture, and why put a massive fight like Joshua-Wilder on a unproven and niche streaming service.

    Both fighters aren’t big in America, at least putting it Showtime/CBS it’ll get good promotion and healthy numbers.
    Also Haymon and Wilder are loyal to Showtime.

    As proven by Hearn’s failure to get any of the PBC Fighters
     
    Secret Service US, Nov 21, 2018
    Secret Service US, Nov 21, 2018
    #40
  11. greenhornet

    greenhornet Boxing Addict Full Member

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    sounds good. you might need to message me if you win or i might forget.
     
    greenhornet, Nov 21, 2018
    greenhornet, Nov 21, 2018
    #41
  12. smiffyinoz

    smiffyinoz Active Member Full Member

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    $5M ridiculous money, its a shame Wilder doesn't see it like that
     
    smiffyinoz, Nov 21, 2018
    smiffyinoz, Nov 21, 2018
    #42
  13. Scissors

    Scissors Posts are sponsored by Matchroom Full Member

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    If Wilder Fury bombs in the US I think it makes the Joshua fight more likely to happen. Tails will be between their legs and hands out asking for a payday.
     
    Scissors, Nov 21, 2018
    Scissors, Nov 21, 2018
    #43
  14. KiwiMan

    KiwiMan Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    That's true, although GGG could've surely done 300k had a Fury-like opponent been available instead of Jacobs/Lemiuex. GGG-Wade did more (free) views than Wilder-Ortiz, for instance.
     
    KiwiMan, Nov 22, 2018
    KiwiMan, Nov 22, 2018
    #44
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  15. KiwiMan

    KiwiMan Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    I'm pretty sure it breaks that. They're expecting well over 300k, anything less than 200k would be a big disappointment for Showtime and less than 100k an unmitigated disaster
     
    KiwiMan, Nov 22, 2018
    KiwiMan, Nov 22, 2018
    #45
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