Dubois, his handers and fans, are counting on three possibly largely fictional narratives.

100% agree. The only real question is how is Usyk going to win it?

 

I reckon Usyk on points this time.

 

I'd love to be this confident in Uysk winning. But the age narrative is not a bad one. Usyk is very old by boxing standards, as far as being a classical boxer. It's one thing being a massive Chinese Ogre, plodding around and counterpunching. You can take that into your forties for a while. But Usyk is more of a race car.

The low blow thing. It was a foul. But it's also true in a different place (like the UK), it would have been allowed and could have turned the fight. I can think of two stoppages that were arguably foul-based, one was Ward and one was with Khan, I think it was against Judah, but it looked very low. There are also plenty of low blows missed by refs all the time. We'll see if he goes back to that now and tries to get away with it. Team Usyk is incredibly dumb fighting in the UK, must be a greed decision.

As for Dubious being a boy, now a man. His brain stopped development about 12 years old. So that's where it will stay.

 

I thought Dubois vs AJ was outstending

But here I hope for one thing. A one-sided whooping against Dubois. Sorry, bud.

And Parker to get his shot next

 

It's a very interesting post. And I agree with a lot of it.
Regarding point 1) I think that DD has improved somewhat, but not astronomically. And one of the main factors here, for me, is that he hasn't fundamentally changed as a fighter. I do feel that he is susceptible to wilting under pressure - and always has been. That has not, and will not, change, however you try to mask it. And I think that tendency will resurface again.
2) Agree - and this is the most possible scenario IMO. Usyk is 38. I've said this before that we seem, as boxing fans, to think that fighters can go on and on, in terms of age, in the modern day. He's old for a boxer. The ones who operate at a high level in their late 30s and 40s are the exception not the norm.
3) I don't think it was a low blow. And if Usyk was so terrible to the body ... all his opponents know it. Yet no one has capitalised on it...
So, yes, great thread. I expect Usyk to win. But him getting older is the biggest issue for him, IMO. I think he should have retired after Fury 2 - but they never do, do they?

 

I do think Dubois has improved. He is now fighting in a style that makes the best of his strengths, being an aggressive come forward fighter, behind a stiff jab. He has also learned to counter punch which he used to never too, so will be more dangerous because of this. But he still doesn't move his head enough and is too easy to hit, Hrgovic founds his chin consistently, Joshua too landed hard shots and had him hurt and no doubt Usyk will land cleanly and regularly. I think he'll do better in the rematch but it won't be enough, unless of course narrative 2 is true and Usyk has gotten old.

The main point of hope for Dubois fans is that he has improved with each fight recently and we really don't know what we'll see from Dubois in this 2nd fight with Usyk. If he shows us improvement in head movement which will help him get inside then maybe we'll see a better fight than I expect.

 

I do not believe for a second team usyk will take any chance to risk loosing this fight ...

I expect this fight to be not more than an exhibition ... you know

 

Unquestionably and anyone who thinks differently just hasn't been watching him.

Dubois is the underdog but a live dog none the less.

 

Dubois is a Glass Jawed Fighter.

 

All the narratives could be partly, even mostly, true and Usyk could still win.

Dubois has definitely improved - that's not the question, the question is whether it's enough.

Usyk is older and will have declined since last time - again, that's not really the question, the question is whether it's enough..

#1 and #2 don't necessarily stand unconnected, either - it could, and realistically is, the case that the difference in levels will have shrunk as a result of both of them... But that still doesn't necessarily mean Dubois wins.


#3 is continuing the myth that it was a legal shot and not a foul...
It's simply not the case - Dubois knew at the time he'd been caught red handed with a deliberate lowblow and complained just as little as you'd expect in the circumstances.

Is Usyk weak to legit/legal body punches with that kind of power on them? Maybe, we don't really know whether he is now, or ever was... But he shouldn't need to be able to take deliberate fouls - depending on the ref, he might need to in reality, we'll see!


I think Usyk still wins, but it probably won't be as easy as last time.

 

1. Agree - while Dubois looks more polished now, he hasn’t improved enough to suggest he’s on Usyk’s level

2. Agree - while Usyk has lost a step and is clearly past-prime, him outboxing Fury twice suggests he still has plenty more than enough to beat Dubois again

3. This one is still borderline for me - ultimately the ref’s opinion is the only one that matters, and he called it a foul, so it was a foul. But many other refs would have called it a legal blow. And I remember Joshua landed a few good body shots over both of their fights which had Usyk visibly complaining to the ref, despite them being borderline; many other fighters would just get on with it. Usyk fans won’t like to hear it but he does have a history of showing discomfort when hit to the body. Therefore whether Dubois can capitalise does depend on the ref’s interpretation.

I believe Usyk wins again but it’s not shocking to believe Dubois has a real chance.

 

Frank's pet Frankenstein has been given a new solid set of lungs for this one. Watch Dubios wear Usyk down in the tenth, and take a hiding in the corner!!!

 

I'm not buying "Joshua was mentally shot"

Joshua was a huge favourite over Dubois he was coming off destroying Wallin, Ngannou, he looked like he was back to his old aggressive self.

Joshua has never fought a young prime opponent like Dubois who hit as hard as he does. Dubois simply put Joshua on the backfoot from the opening bell and caught Joshua with a shot he didn't recover from.

It's no different than when Joshua got caught by Ruiz and didn't recover.

So yeah I'm not buying that excuse for Joshua sorry.