That's pretty much where I am. Before he was shot, Hopkins struggled most with boxers who could out speed him on the outside, e.g. RJJ, Taylor, Calzaghe & Dawson. He excelled against slower fighters who tried to out brawl him. That said, like you, I'd favour Qawi, as it's difficult to see Hopkins having the power to keep Qawi off him or being able to keep up with Qawi's work rate. Qawi is my pick too, in a fight sufficiently competitive that it would surprise some.
Hopkins had an excellent defence. So even once a fighter was in punching range of Hopkins he has to find a gap to land. Yet before this, Hopkins foot positioning can prevent the rhythm and full leverage of his opponent. Then there’s the countering and awkward shouldering angles and mauling to contend with. Qawi brings a lot to the table, but any fighter is only as good as the opponent will let him be. Hopkins was not a spectacular fighter, but he was intelligent and crafty enough to take away half of what a busy fighter brought to the table. He won’t fight qawis fight. Michael Spinks baffled Qawi. And Hopkins might be as good.
It took an ATG performance from Spinks to beat Qawi, Spinks also stunned Qawi early and got his respect. And also used an amazing jab to win the early rounds, but despite all that it still ended up being a reasonably close fight. As Qawi got back into it in the later rounds, and only lost in the margin of 3 or 4 points. Hopkins doesn't have any of the attributes above, like an ATG jab or 1 punch KO power to keep Qawi honest. And Hopkins is nowhere near as good as a prime Spinks H2H at Light Heavyweight come on. Spinks is arguably a top 5 Light Heavyweight of all time, Hopkins couldn't crack an egg at Light Heavyweight, and doesn't have the workrate or the strength to deal with Qawi. Lastly Qawi is not just your normal swarming type fighter, he has an excellent defence and great countering abilities. Hopkins would have a hard time finding Qawi, and he wouldn't be able to keep Qawi off him. Or have the strength on the inside nor the workrate to deal with Qawi. Qawi by late stoppage or a convincing decision win.
That’s not an unreasonable view. Perhaps I am wrong and Qawi might take it? As you say, Qawi was a convincing champion. Strong and high work rate. Better than any of the Lightheavyweights Hopkins came across. But I don’t think Hopkins necessarily has to fight just like Spinks or hit as hard as he did to beat Qawi. He only has to be successful in not letting Qawi do what he wants to do and I think Hopkins could be as technically problematic as Spinks was in that respect. A baffled and frustrated fighter can lose to a lesser fighter with the right plan. It could turn out to be just such a case.
The Spinks Jinx played a role in baffling Qawi. Aside from his annihilation of Joe Lipsey, Hopkins seemingly lacked the single punch power needed to slow Qawi down long enough to befuddle him. Hopkins was extremely crafty. However, his struggles with Merqui Sosa, Robert Allen, and Antwan Echols weight heavy in my assessment of a fight with Qawi. I think the version of Qawi who took Holyfield to the deep end of the pool is relentless enough to "drown" the best version of Hopkins.
Hopkins likes to tie up fighters on the inside, I don't think he could do that against the more physically strong Qawi. And honestly Spinks as I said got Qawi's respect early, watch the 1st round again he hits Qawi with the Spinx Jinx right hand, and you clearly see Qawi was buckled by it. Spinks let him know early he had the power, and then he was able to control Qawi for the first 7 rounds, with a fine jabbing exhibition one of the best you'll see. Hopkins doesn't carry that level of respect regarding power, and he would find it hard against the more physically strong Qawi on the inside if he adapted that approach. Qawi may of not ruled for a long time, thanks to Spinks being as good as he was. But Qawi for a 2 or 3 year window I believe was fighting at an ATG level. And I think hes a nightmare for most Light Heavyweights during that period past/present.