Dwyer from Gambler's Advisory picks Margarito by TKO - Some VERY interesting points

Margarito's power seems overrated in ESB.

He is not a one punch KO artist, never was.

If he connects sporadically against Pac, he will never win.

Even when he fought Cotto, he was not actually winning th fight during the first half of the fight. He is just a pressure fighter who tends to eat pucnhes in order to dish out his own.

 

I think Pac has about an 80% chance of victory, but this is going to be harder than the Clottey fight.

What he has going for him is the fact that while Margarito is a swarmer (and a damn good one), he's not very fast on his feet. Pac is going to have a lot of early and mid-round success with his in-out motion, popping Margarito, who is just a bit too slow to land much of note.

However, if Margarito's chin is not broken...this fight will get interesting later on. Margarito has great stamina...Pac has recently shown to take a few breaks later in fights (he certainly did against Cotto although was still kicking his ass).

More importantly...one thing Margarito has is a right hand. It isn't fantastic, but he has a good one where Clottey does not pretty much at all. If he can get Pac stationary towards the end of the fight, I think you'll see him landing some leather on Pac in the form of right hands.

I expect this fight to end up being 9-3 or 8-4 Pac, with him looking not so great towards the end...and then everyone on ESB saying he was overrated.

 

I think guy doesn't really understand that letting Hatton come forward was Roach's game plan. Compare that fight to the Oscar and Cotto fights and see how many times Pac was against the ropes. I think the game plan for Margarito is going to look like the one they used against Oscar where Pac constantly turned him and stayed in the middle of the ring. Yeah Pac might not fight off the back foot like some guys, but if he doesn't need to, then it's irrelevant. The question is can Margo prevent him from turning him or cut off the ring enough to trap him against the ropes. We'll soon find out.

 

this thread has me phsyched! cant wait for Saturday, there are valid points all around but which ones will carry the day Saturday? no one knows......I tell you if Pac gets the KO, how could anyone continue to deny his greatness?.....Margo has that chin, he walked through Cotto, in order for Manny to get respect he will have to plant and punch with conviction and if he cant dent Mago then A.M.s attrition and swarm game has found a home.

 

margo is possibly the first live fighter that Paq is fighting at 147+.

DLH was not only shot(looked terrible against Forbes) but weight-drained.

Cotto was in all likelihood on a serious decline after the Marg and Clottey fights(with his recent win,Foreman came into their fight with torn knee ligaments and wore a brace).

Clottey came for a paycheck and is now nowhere to be found.

Margo is the only fighter to convincingly beat both Cintron(twice) and Martinez.

But some people will still say Margo is too slow to land on the great, invincible, cat-quick Paq.

If Margo is the same Margo pre-Cotto and can still throw 80-100 punches a round, I don't see Pac finishing the fight.

 

very true. his power is massively overrated.

margarito's best skills are his size, work rate, work ethic, heart, toughness, chin, endurance, stamina. If Manny doesn't dominate him bell to bell and it becomes a fight, those intagibles will factor heavily.

 

:good

I see it the same way.

 

:good

Cotto was the only 'live' opponent he's fought in his last 5 fights. That's not to discredit manny's victories. I'm just not buying that he's invincible.

 

good insights. this must be the first thread about the fight without the usual name calling and childish rants.

 

my only prediction:

pac-haters before fight: pac is past his prime and overrated, his recent wins have been against bad or shot fighters. margo is too strong and durable, he really wants it, too big for pacquiao.

pac-haters after fight: this was a mismatch, pacquiao should be fighting better opposition. margo was weight-drained, catchweight LOL. call me when he stops ducking mayweather. steroids.

 

This is a real possibility.
Pac needs space to box; he's not an inside fighter. Tony has these longs arms and he throws wide looping punches with power at the end of them and catching you when you believe you're out of harm: who's to say Pac will avoid them ?

Up until now Pac hasn't fought any swarmer and has had time to establish his boxing by darting in and out, using lateral mouvement

If Marg shows no respect for his power and keeps walking him down with a hight outpout he has a real chance.

But he's a diminished fighter and he might be weakened by the lower weight.

 

I normally agree with Dwyer but not this time.

The entire perception rightfully changed about Margarito in the Mosley fight. He hasn't looked the same since and saturday is open to debate.

Pacquiao may not be as physically strong as Margarito but he has the skill, speed and finesse to land punches Margarito won't see. Unlike others who would back up and try to evade Margarito (like Cotto did), Pacquiao will be right there in Mosley's pocket landing hard counters and lead lefts.

As stated before, if we knew before the Mosley fight that Margarito would get busted on illegal hand wraps nobody would have picked him over Mosley. Hindsight is 20/20. If he naturally lacks the pop to make his game work he is just a heavy bag.

I can see Pacquiao ending this long before the 10th. Maybe, shockingly, over in quick fashion after 4-5 rounds. Margarito has not psychologically recovered from the thrashing Mosley gave him and Pacquiao is a hard puncher at the elite level. Even Clottey throwing one punch at a time managed to shake Margarito up good. Imagine Pacquiao doing that time and time again. Stamina is another big factor here. Pacquiao will not tire like Clottey did not even like Mosley did.

Remember, it's about the punch you don't see. Ask Andrade about Bute's short left under his guard for an example. Ask Wladimir Klitschko about Corrie Sanders' short left under his guard for another example. The punch you don't see will do a lot of damage regardless of how good your chin is.

 

Not a chance.
Dwyer is right in saying Pac is a sniper while Mosley is a close quarters assassin. One needs to be confident in one's chin; Mosley didn't respect Margo's power, but Pac will because he doesn't have Mosley's chin.

Pac's power isn't the same as Mosley's either; at this higher weight, Pac needs to catch you coming in to really hurt you.

 

Mosley recognized where Margarito's power is. It is not off of his chest.

Mosley did the right thing in smothering Margarito. He stepped to him, got off first and then tied up or stayed on his chest. The key here is that Mosley did not give Margarito room to punch. Margarito's best shot is the long overhand right. His other shots to the body and chest are also mid-long range punches. He doesn't fight very well in a phone booth as Mosley proved.

Also, stating that Mosley has a better chin than Pacquiao at 147lbs is debatable.

Pacquiao's best shot is inside on Margarito. That is where Clottey landed his best shot. That is where Mosley knocked Margarito out.