The problem is Morales legs. Its always a bad sign when i fighters legs leave him and Morales left quite a while ago. He will always be good the first 4-5 rounds but then after that his legs are very shaky so when he takes a shot he goes down. His chin isnt as shot as his legs but when you got no legs your chin gets hit more and eventually crack. For Morales to win this he has to KO Maidana before 6.
I'd give the naturally smaller but lanky (sadly past prime) Morales a decent chance, if he were a mover, and did pure boxing, straight punching and countering. But he won't do that. The first instance he gets hit hard, he'll wanna hit back. I just don't think his frame and his current state can handle all that, for 10 rounds.