Dwyer reckons barker has a chance

They don't mean much, depends when he's eaten, how much fluid, etc. Scales to fight night weights, there aren't many who put on less, the HBO numbers show it. He was 168 on fight night vs Williams, same as Margarito against Pacquiao at 150, and lower than Clottey at WW. Chavez was 180 vs Zbik and I'm not sure many really think of him as massive.

 

Mate, I have rewatched the fight. I felt it was a clear decision for Sergio then and now. I value clean, effective punching over inaccurate cuffing. People seem to get sucked in by Paul windmilling offence and ignore how badly he applies it.

Whether you agree that Sergio is a P4P talent is irrelevant (especially as I think P4P is a complete load of bull**** anyway), the fact is that he's simply got more tools as a fighter than Barker does.

 

I'm not a Williams fan by the way, far from it...he has made a name by being able to manipulate his freakish physique and little else.

I do think that he will beat Barker, but back to my original point...Barker is not a 50/1 shot.

 

Of course he's not - in a sport where two men have fists, nervous systems and flimsy skin, anything can happen. Martinez could be beating Barker around the ring, get clocked by a left hook, splits his eyelid and Barker would get a TKO win.

50-1 over any fight, unless the opponent is a one-fight novice or something, is insane. Barker's got more of a chance than Ortiz did.

 

Barker isn't a 50/1 shot though. He's best priced 10/1.

 

even if he did outbox sergio he would still probably loose, i think barkers one of those fighters who is good enuff to compete at the top level but needs an xfactor - weather its a big puch, rapid speed, or great work rate he doesnt have that.
Sergio does have world class speed of hand and foot and he makes you fight his fight, he only fights for say half a round at a time then he circles darts in and out. Barker is going to have to take the fight to him and better skilled fighters have failed to do that at the moment. I think sergio is over rated he only had about 5 decent wins on his CV but the quality of those wins is better than Barker i could see a late SM stoppage. 50-1 miles to high but i dont see much vaule in 10-1 either

 

No you miss understand I'm not taking him at 4-1 I'm saying that he's at 7-1 to 10-1 at the casino and he should be at 4-1 underdog. Don't worry I haven't been making any silly bets when there's better ones out there.

 

If you think he should be 4/1, yet you can get 10/1, surely you should be piling on the 10/1? Is that not what betting is all about... finding the value?

 

how many predictions has this mother ****er gotten right, not many i can only think of 2 maybe 3 in the last 8 months,

 

The key to betting isn't putting money on who you think will win, it's finding where you think the odds are too generous. Like Wallet says, bet if you think he should be 4/1. It's bot silly taking 10/1 on a guy you think will lose if he should be half that. Hes priced there because not enough people have put money on him winning, not any bookie bias.

 

I like Dwyer too. He says at the start of every video that it's just his opinion, he doesnt claim to be mystic meg. If you're in the predictions business then you're always going to get big surprise results right now and then, as well as predictions that go spectacularly wrong. I enjoy his stuff anyway. There aint a great deal of rational, informed boxing analysis. Have a look at the average ESB fanny who just backs his favorite fighter regardless.

 

Those odds for Maidana were more to do with the fact every man and his dog reckoned he had a decent shot at the KO and very little chance of winning on points.