Well to put some numbers as I see the fight. Onesided UD or TKO for JC: 10% Close decision for JC: 25% Close decision for MK: 30% Onesided UD or TKO for MK: 35% Ignoring the the draw. That is how I see probabilities in the fight.
Close decision Calzaghe (hometown decision) 40 % UD Kessler 10 % Tko Kessler 50 % Calzaghe stay in he's corner after round 8
I think you are wrong about the close decision percentages. The close decision normally goes to the hometown fighter, in this case Calzaghe. This is actually why I have this fight as an almost 50-50 fight, because I can't see Calzaghe lose a close decision in Cardiff. If Kessler should win a close decision (on the scorecards), then it most likely will be a wide decision made close by the hometown judging.
Yes I understand but then in fact it will not be possible or at least difficult for Kessler to get a Wide UD so it is that percentage that will go down? In fact I think there is over 1/3 chance for a TKO for Kessler.
I really considered going but it is really expensive since I am staying in China. I have decided to wait until Kessler fights in Vegas and go there instead.
OK, I get you.:good My percentages would look something like this when the hometown judging have been taken into account: JC by close decision 33% JC by wide UD 10% JC by stoppage 5% MK by close decision 30% MK by wide UD 2% MK by stoppage 20% I have left out things like NC, TD, DQ and draw.
The fact is most Calzaghe fans are British, Britain right now has quite a few talented boxers so even if Joe did lose and decided to retire I assume the fans will still be here supporting other fighters they like. Apart from Kessler can you name a popular Danish boxer? Anyway your question is flawed. You assume people are only Calzaghe fans and not fans of boxing. This is very silly.
Well said. Maybe this question should be asked of the new KP fans? Bllody hell, I am getting as bitchy as the JC haters!atsch BTW, if Pavlik (or anyone else) has brought new fans to boxing then that's great.:thumbsup
If it goes like the Manfredo fight (and PM clearly would have lost on points by a wide margin), it will simply take a few non-connecting slapping flurries and the fight will be stopped via TKO. I hope that Kessler has taken the risk of fighting in Wales into account and stays off the ropes.
