ESB's Big Fight Picks - new Prediction League Idea!

First of all, an apology to lbarrow and kirk...I suggested at the beginning of the year that we should have only one Prediction League, but we couldn't all agree to go with one model and lbarrow rightfully argued that since he had run his league since forever, there was no need for him to change his model. In the meantime, Amsterdam has given up on his league and kirk has restarted another exciting one...and here I am, proposing another one on top of these two!

But here's the twist and my excuse.

The issue I have with the existing/previous prediction leagues, including Amsterdam's:

1. too many fights - it takes too long to analyse them all
2. too many random fights involving fighters you'd never heard of and would never hear of again - it became an educated guessing game involving boxrec statistics to a significant extent
3. not enough posters took part because of 1. and 2. - there were only a dozen or so posters who kept at it, regularly.
4. big fights you'd spent a long time analysing carefully counted for as many points as the fights you'd spent 5 minutes on boxrec guessing at.
5. the winner was a very good analyst and picker, but there was no way of knowing whether he wasn't also the luckiest...



The BIG-FIGHT PICKS Prediction League will not have a lot of match-ups, and given the analysis and effort put into competing in the other two leagues, it shouldn't take any extra time to compete in this one as well, because it will contain the same fights the other, existing leagues will, but only some of them - the big ones! We're talking fights like Pavlik v. Taylor II, Calzaghe v. Hopkins, Pacquiao v. JMM II, Haye v. Maccarinelli, but also smaller, important fights like e.g. Povetkin v. Chambers, Froch v. Inkin, Woods v. Tarver, Dawson v. Johnson

The BIG-FIGHT PICKS Prediction League would NOT have fights like Khan v. St Clair, Bute v. Joppy or Guerrero v. Litzau, because they are not big enough - the fight is not one between two contenders for a belt, for top ranking within a division, or a very anticipated fight, in general.

The BIG-FIGHT PICKS Prediction League will work in conjuction with the ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Threads - all of the matchups in the league will be covered by an ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread, which will be started at least a week in advance of the fight...

There will never be more than 3 fights in any week. If there are no big fights at all one week, we take a break. If there's only 1 big fight, we go with that one only. This should allow everyone who wants to take part but doesn't have 2 hours to pick 10 fights, for example, to do so.

Also, since all the fights covered will be fights involving boxers who are well known, in big fights, the winner of the league will not have been very lucky when he/she was using statistics to find the winner in some random match-up, since there won't be any random match-ups...just big fights involving the best - fights which will get properly analysed in the ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Threads.

So:

• a maximum of 3 fights per week - saves time and allows a proper analysis to be made - so everyone can take part
• only big fights - no random match-ups - reduces the element of luck when totaling up scores at the end of the year - no need to guess for any pick or chose the winner on the basis of little/limited information
• all fights in the league covered by the ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Threads - helps with the prediction; no one has an excuse for picking blind/guessing
• no extra points for getting all the picks in one week right - makes things fairer
• blue-ribbon events score more!
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• extra points for best analysis
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This is how picking and scoring will work:

Legend for picks:

UD - unanimous decision
Draw - draw
T/KO - stoppage
Close - close decision
Wide - wide decision

Take Chambers v. Povetkin, for example:

When making a pick, you would write down:e.g.

Povetkin T/KO 10 - Povetkin will stop Chambers in the 10th round

or

Povetkin UD close - Povetkin will win by close unanimous decision

or

Povetkin UD wide - Povetkin will win by wide unanimous decision

or

Povetkin Draw Chambers - it will be a draw

Instead of MD/SD - use UD close
Instead of KO or TKO or DQ or RT (knock out, technical knockout, disqualification or retired) - use T/KO

Scoring

1. Take Chambers v. Povetkin, for example: the scores were as follows:
~ referee: Steve Smoger | judge: Deon Dwarte 117-111 | judge: Alejandro Lopez 119-109 | judge: Phil Edwards 116-112 ~ all for Povetkin

This will count as a wide decision, because the two closest scores were more than 2 points apart. If they had been 2 points apart or less, it would have counted as a close decision.

So, the correct pick would be Povetkin UD close - this would score you 15 points - correct winner, that he would win by decision, correct difference in points

Povetkin UD wide - would score you 10 points - picks correct winner and that he would win by decision (not stoppage), but got the difference in points wrong

Povetkin T/KO 10 - would score you 5 points - picks the correct winner only


2. Take Haye v. Mormeck. Haye won by TKO in the 7th round.

Haye T/KO 7 - would score you 20 points

Haye T/KO 6 or Haye T/KO 8 - would score you 15 points

Haye T/KO 5 or Haye T/KO 9 - would score you 10 points

Haye T/KO 4 or Haye T/KO 10 - also 10 points

3. Take Pacquiao v. JMM, which ended in a draw.

Pacquiao Draw JMM - would score you 25 points

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All fights will be big, but some fights will be massive: e.g. Pacquiao v. JMM will be massive; Woods v. Tarver will only be big...

...and we care more about massive fights than about big fights! We spend longer analysing them, thinking about them, finding information about them...so our pick is likely to be better too!

This will be reflected in the scoring. The score you get for a blue ribbon event will be multiplied by 2 to give the total score.

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The best analysis will get you an extra 10 points. Please see below for further details.


Democratic decision making for picking which fights to run in the league

As soon as a fight is officially signed, if you think it's BIG, pm me please to suggest that we run an ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread on it. I will start such a thread. If there's a lot of interest in the Thread, and we get plenty of decent analyses, discussions and debates about that fight, it will be included in the Big-Fight League, in the week when it takes place. If there isn't much interest in the ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread, and we don't get many proper analyses of the fight, it won't be included in the league. At least 7 proper analyses are required for a fight to be included in the league or to be selected for the best analysis bonus.

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A proper analysis is the kind of analysis that brooklyn1050 usually posts! (Doesn't have to be as good as his, but you have to make an effort!):good This should encourage us all to get involved in analysing the big fights properly...and not just write down: Povetkin TKO 10 Chambers...for example.

...So, if you're interested in picking for a fight in the league, pm me and get involved in the ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread for that fight.

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This will encourage posters to pay careful attention when analysing a fight in the ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Threads and to get involved in analysing, in general.

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To recap, this is how it would work:

You find out that an exciting fight happens and you think it will be big! You wait for it to become official, and then you pm me, asking me to start an Analysis or Prediction Thread on it. Alternatively, you start one yourself, using the exact format that I usually use, making the vote PUBLIC! (If you use a different format, I'll start one myself and "mine" will be the only "official one"! Please use the usual format!:good) You post your analysis of the fight and vote in the public poll and continue to discuss the fight in the thread. Once we get 7 proper analyses, the fight is a lock for the league, unless there are 3 fights that week that get more proper analyses. By Monday at the latest, I will post a thread X•X•X ESB's Big-Fight Picks - Stage 1 X•X•X where I post the big fights that made it. All the picks have to be made at least 6 hours before the fight starts. This allows picks to be made at the last moment, benefiting from the weigh-in. After the fight, we tote up the scores. Then, we find out who had the best analysis. We add 10/20 points to that poster's points total.

So...if you think a fight is MASSIVE is a week when it competes for attention with other big fights...you make sure you post a porper analysis in the MASSIVE fight Analysis and Prediction Thread, to make sure that it gets picked for the league over the others...because it has MORE proper analyses.

Why I want to do this?

I want us all to become better at analysing and predicting fights - this will make us better fans of boxing! Might also help us make some more (v)cash in the process:good You don'y become better without analysing fights properly, carefully. So I started the Analysis and Prediction Threads. Not that many people made an effort though...most posters just write a rubbish prediction down, without backing it up at all - this is useless, although I guess it does bump the thread:roll:...So I thought if we tied the Analysis and Prediction Threads to a league, it will get the competitive juices flowing!:hey At the end of the year, using this league, we'll find the very best analyst on ESB...not one of the best, but the best! Would be nice to know how good you really are...:yep...Since it will only include fights that can get and do get analysed properly, luck will play a smaller role than in the other prediction leagues...this is GOOD! The winner will not be a good analyse with some luck! He/She will be the best analyst, full stop!

:good:good:good:good:good

So, do you want to do this or not?

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Need help!

If you think this prediction league is a good idea and want to get involved, would you please volunteer to help me run it? Thank you!

What are your thoughts?

Interested in this kind of a prediction league? Is it a good idea? Would you take part?

 

Unless many people want to take part...this is a non-starter...Anyone want to take part in such a thing? Do we need an extra league, given that we already have two? :think

 

Thanks for your input!:good

 

Thought it would add another dimension. :good

 

That is a very small detail. That can easily be changed. I am asking about the idea as a whole...not about the small details...

How many points for a draw would you suggest?

 

Big problem with the other/ previous prediction leagues was:

• too many fights to predict - would take a hell of a long time to do properly - not enough people had that time...
• too many fights including fighters few have ever heard of - some of them you'd basically go to boxrec and take an educated guess on, looking at past records...many people don't see the point in guessing
• big fights you put a lot of effort in getting it right counted as much as something you spent 5 minutes on boxrec, guessing...how does the winner justify he was the best analyst, and not the luckiest?

This prediction league deals with these major problems.

 

Yes...if people are interested in them...if they are, they will prove their interest by analysing them. The more a fight is analysed, the higher the chance it's getting picked for the league. So, it's not me deciding which fights to pick for the league - we vote with out feet, by analysing!

I expect fights like the ones you mentioned would make the cut...