ESB's Big Fight Picks - new Prediction League Idea!

Thanks for the thumbs-up. We need more people to want to do this, though...

 

Thanks, mate!:good

Let me say something again, so that everyone understands what this thing was supposed to be all about - it is supposed to get people to predict big fights on the basis of careful PERSONAL analysis and study of the two fighters and publicly available information.

I agree with you that we should run this thing separate from the ANALYSIS and PREDICTIO Threads. You are right...there's no need to tie them together. Let's not do that.:good

I am strongly against "Week sheets" with pictures, odds, boxrec rankings, analysis written up by brooklyn1050, kg0208, Amsterdam or huki or whoever....on the basis of which people would pick a winner. The reason is: I don't see what the point of all that would be? Remember that the reason I want to do this is not so that as many people as possible make a quick decision on the basis of some pics, odds, boxrec rankings and one analysis write-up...for what would that prove? I want people to do their OWN analysis, do their OWN research and make an INFORMED decision, not on the basis of what brooklyn1050, kg0208, Amsterdam or huki think, but on the basis of what THEY think! Unless we do that, how are we all going to get better as analysts and predictors? And what would be the point of a league anyway, if most people made uninformed, un-analysed choices?

I am also strongly against having more than 3 fights MAX per week...if we have 7-10...who the hell will have time to analyse them all properly? Remember, we're trying to improve as analysts, not as boxrec statisticians! I want people to dedicate the 45 minutes or so they have to make 2-3 choices, not 7-10 choices...because those 2-3 choices will be much more informed and thought-out than the 7-10 choices...

I feel that lbarrow's league is perfectly suited to those who want to pick up to 10 fights a week...I think your ideas are much better suited to the kind of league he is running...I don't want to compete or duplicate lbarrow's or kirk's league, but to add something new and different...I want all those who take part in their leagues to take part in this one too, but I want to attract those who don't have time to pick 10 picks a week too! On top of that, I want to attract those who want to spend a lot of time on making a very thought-out and carefull analysed pick, because it is those guys who are really thinking about the sport and becoming better analysts. Whoever wins this kind of league is the best analyst...not te luckiest...

What do you think?

We have still to agree on the scoring system. Mine was only a suggestion...we'll keep working on that!

:good

 

We're working to sort out some details...then, when we're ready, we're gonna launch it...It will appear in a separate thread, asking you to predict the Pavlik v. Taylor winner.:good

 

OK, you guys convinced me we shouldn't give extra points for the best analysis...we'll separate the analysis from the prediction altogether!:good

Guerrero-Litzau...these names say nothing to me...never heard of these guys...am I the odd one out here? Is this a big fight? Will I find on youtube at least 2-3 10 minute videos with their recent fights? Am I going to find a lot of publicly available information about them? Somehow, I feel that the choice I would make for Pavlik v. Taylor, Calzaghe v. Hopkins and Haye v. Macca would be much more informed...so why would I want to give equal weight to a much less informed pick regarding Guerrero v. Litzau? The point of this kind of league is to see what people make of a lot of publicly available information about very well known fighters, not to see who who is best able to dig out stuff to make an informed decision about...

Thanks for your thoughts about scoring...we need to discuss those further!:good

 

Thanks for your thoughts, mate!:good

I don't think this makes sense though...unless it's a mismatch, decisions tend to be around 1-4 points difference...making the cut off at 6 points means that you should always go "close", if in doubt...

I will look at big, disputed fights to test my theory about this and get back to you!:good

This wouln't work...let's assume you think that the fight will end in the 6th round...would that be early or late KO? Assuming it ends in the 7th and you thought it would end in the 6th and voted early KO, you get no extra points even though you were only one round away! This is absurd! So you might want to chop things up into 1-4, 5-8, 9-12...but you have the same problem. You vote for mid rounds KO because you think it will stop in the 8th, and it turns out it stops in the 9th...even though you were only 1 round away, you get 0 extra points...

...and so on and so fort...carrying this idea to its logical conclusion, you conclude you must work according to a ripples round the correct round scale...which means you HAVE to predict a certain round and the closer you are to it, the more points you get...

...trust me, it's not that hard to score...I've done it myself.:good

We'll discuss scoring further...

 

You're right...but it's not supposed to satisfy those who want to pick 10 picks avery week! It's supposed to satisfy those who have 90 minutes to pick as many as 3 picks max, and instead of using up those 90 minutes to make 7-10 picks (9-13 minutes per pick), they want to spend 30-90 minutes per pick, in careful, thorough, analysis...

To me, a more informed, better analysed pick says more about the level of analysis of the picker than one done in a rush, using boxrec, odds and a pic and maybe brooklyn's thoughts added in for good measure...

...I WANT MORE, DAMMIT!:twisted: :twisted: :twisted:



I will be very happy to see how the pick people make in this league will be better than the picks they make in the other leagues, if they do both...because it will prove that a carefully analysed pick is a better pick! And better analysis leads to better anlysts and a better ESB!

:good