Estrada-Chocolatito II Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by George Crowcroft, Mar 5, 2021.


Who Wins and How?

Poll closed Mar 13, 2021.

  1. Chocolatito PTS

    6 vote(s)
    21.4%

  2. Estrada PTS

    11 vote(s)
    39.3%

  3. Chocolatito KO

    2 vote(s)
    7.1%

  4. Estrada KO

    7 vote(s)
    25.0%

  5. Draw/Can't Decide

    2 vote(s)
    7.1%
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  1. George Crowcroft

    George Crowcroft He Who Saw The Deep Full Member

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    What're everybody's thoughts on next week's rematch? I haven't seen one prediction thread, and only one thread even mentioning it so far. And that's shame, because this is a fight which should be a genuine superfight, IMO - and it would be treated as such if it had a competent promotional company behind it.

    Who do you think is gonna win?

    I'm not writing Gonzalez off. He's been having a sort of late-career renaissance, and has honestly looked more impressive in his last two fights than Estrada has. And after all, he did win the last one. Estrada hasn't exactly set the world on fire in his outings vs Beamon and Cuadras. I thought he was more hittable vs Dewayne, and clearly looked worse vs Cuadras. Although it's abundantly clear that Cuadras roided up for that one, Estrada still didn't really impress. He's been looking easier to buy and more fragile in each outing since the Rungvisai rematch, whereas Gonzlalez has looked better and better since his rematch with SSR.

    I watched their first fight this morning, and I think it was very evenly matched in almost all departments. The difference was how Chocolatito imposed himself on Estrada. He was strong enough physically to bull Estrada back when he had him up against the ropes, and he was able to cut the ring off brilliantly. A nice little bonus to being the constant aggressor and having he more effective footwork meant that whenever Estrada tried to attack, he could step in real close and smother the attacks. Nowadays though, Roman's speed in how he shifts through angles and cuts off the ring is waning, and he won't be the stronger guy. So I'm going with Estrada. He'll be much bigger this time than he was then, as he normally rehydrates between 10-15lbs, and he's naturally bigger anyway. Not to mention that he now has much more experience than he did then, as well as having his 'man-strength', so to speak. Gonzalez is obviously on the wrong side of his prime, and isn't as good at 115 as he was at 108.

    I think with neither being so good defensively now, both seeming to be a bit easier to hurt, and neither having as good foot-speed, means that I really do think this will end up a war. Unless of course I'm all-wrong about Estrada and Cuadras II was just a poor performance and he boxes circles around Choco.
     
    George Crowcroft, Mar 5, 2021
    George Crowcroft, Mar 5, 2021
    #1
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  2. sasto

    sasto Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    I thought Estrada Cuadras II was the FOTY for 2020 on the basis of action and drama.

    Estrada got hit with the kitchen sink and still got the 11th round KO. Chocolatito didn't look as powerful. I think his best chance is to be evasive and try to time Estrada, but I think Gallo will catch him more as the fight goes on and get a late stoppage.

    Whatever happens I'm sure it's going to be entertaining.
     
    sasto, Mar 5, 2021
    sasto, Mar 5, 2021
    #2
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  3. Dannymita

    Dannymita Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Sorta torn ...a year ago I'd have picked Estrada but he has been looking a touch more frail as of late ...I know where my money is going with the odds on I saw on Estrada ko being at 7/2

    But I'm not entirely confident
     
    Dannymita, Mar 5, 2021
    Dannymita, Mar 5, 2021
    #3
  4. cornwall22

    cornwall22 Active Member Full Member

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    Estrada points, sharper and closer to prime, Chocolatito is the man though, pulling for him big time.
     
    cornwall22, Mar 5, 2021
    cornwall22, Mar 5, 2021
    #4
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  5. roughdiamond

    roughdiamond Ridin' the rails... Full Member

    10,210
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    Jul 25, 2015
    Prediction: WAR
     
    roughdiamond, Mar 5, 2021
    roughdiamond, Mar 5, 2021
    #5
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  6. Chuck Norris

    Chuck Norris Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    Aug 31, 2016
    This content is protected


    Roman looks in awesome shape based off this picture. This rejuvenated version of Gonzalez can beat Estrada. :chuck:
     
    Chuck Norris, Mar 5, 2021
    Chuck Norris, Mar 5, 2021
    #6
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  7. Philly161

    Philly161 "Fundamentals are the crutch of the talentless" banned Full Member

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    Late stoppage for Estrada. Choco is an ATG but Estrada has improved a lot from their first fight and choco has declined, albeit while still being world class but he's up against a top 3 p4p guy. I'm prepared to eat my words tho and I'm rooting for choco.
     
    Philly161, Mar 5, 2021
    Philly161, Mar 5, 2021
    #7
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  8. shza

    shza Active Member Full Member

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    Dec 15, 2018
    Thinking with heart rather than head here, but Chocolatito edges a tough split decision in the fight of his life and retires.... that or an SD draw.

    Not a safe bet by any means, but he would be the one to pull that off, va?
     
    shza, Mar 5, 2021
    shza, Mar 5, 2021
    #8
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  9. UnleashtheFURY

    UnleashtheFURY D'oh! Full Member

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    Not basing this on much other than gut instinct and being a big fan. But Gonzalez eeks out another close decision.
     
    UnleashtheFURY, Mar 5, 2021
    UnleashtheFURY, Mar 5, 2021
    #9
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  10. jmb1356

    jmb1356 Well-Known Member Full Member

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    Sep 30, 2019
    Estrada. Gonzalez takes too much damage since moving up.
     
    jmb1356, Mar 5, 2021
    jmb1356, Mar 5, 2021
    #10
  11. Pakkuman

    Pakkuman I'm not hot. I'm just BIG. banned Full Member

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    I love both guys, but I want Chocolatito to win and am picking him by KO. I just feel like JEF's career can afford to take another L while if Chocolatito loses, he's probably done.
     
    Pakkuman, Mar 5, 2021
    Pakkuman, Mar 5, 2021
    #11
  12. ElCyclon

    ElCyclon Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    Since there's not other fights this weekend it's time to start hyping this one. It's always sad to see a fight like this seemingly fly under the radar.
     
    ElCyclon, Mar 6, 2021
    ElCyclon, Mar 6, 2021
    #12
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  13. McGrain

    McGrain Diamond Dog Staff Member

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    Estrada demonstrated already to me in the first fight that he has numerous advantages over Gonzalez. Range and height, that uppercut, places Gonzalez in a physical position where he is at a pretty significant style disadvantage. He had to run that fight to win it, and did so after what was a good Estrada start, a fast start we'll see form him again.

    The thing is, it doesn't matter if Estrada has slowed a bit; because he is in a position where Gonzalez has to come to him anyway. He's not going to have to go looking for Gonzalez, is he?

    Out-sped and outreached, both of which happened to him last time, Gonzalez is going to have to go for Estrada once more. There is no other way. It's high risk pressure and corner and it worked last time in a close, clear fight. He consistently won the high-action rounds of which there will be fewer this time round. Estrada won the low action rounds (low action rounds in that great fight were relative). I see Estrada out-hitting Gonzalez at a slightly higher rate early than he did last time and I see that adding up over the course of the fight. It gets harder and harder to pressure and push a fighter who is hitting you hard all the time and winning those exchanges; if that occurs, Gonzalez's chances become lower.

    One thing: Gonzalez didn't start finding Estrada with his hook until pretty late in the fight, around the eighth. He might get to enjoy that puncher's blessing of now being able to find Estrada with the left from the start (Assuming he didn't just sheath it early last time). I don't think there was a real pattern in that fight, but Gonzalez did win the 8th, 10th and 11th - in other words, he won 3 of the 7 rounds i think he won after he established the left hook, with only five available.

    That is the key punch I will be looking for from Gonzalez this time around. If he can establish his left hook early enough he has a chance I think on some confused, controversial cards, some sort of split maybe. A draw is also not impossible here. If he doesn't establish the left early, say by the third, I think Estrada will win a fight that feels close and scores wider. Gonzalez will pay more tolls this time around than last time around.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2021
    McGrain, Mar 7, 2021
    McGrain, Mar 7, 2021
    #13
  14. Pakkuman

    Pakkuman I'm not hot. I'm just BIG. banned Full Member

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    Gonzalez by KO.
     
    Pakkuman, Mar 7, 2021
    Pakkuman, Mar 7, 2021
    #14
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  15. McGrain

    McGrain Diamond Dog Staff Member

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    I mean I unashamedly hope so. I do have a a lot of time for Estrada but I thought Gonzalez was on his way, now he's made this tantalising stab. Hard not to pull for him.
     
    McGrain, Mar 7, 2021
    McGrain, Mar 7, 2021
    #15
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