I'm leaning Eubank. This would be a good, physical fight. Normally, I wouldn't pick too many middleweights that have the style that Eubank had to beat Pavlik because of his size and physicality but Eubank more than proved his chinnand toughness and I think he outwork Pavlik.
I actually disagree Eubank liked to fight in spurts and at his own pace I don't see him being able to outwork Pavlik over 12 rounds who had a very good workrate. Infact you could say Pavlik was somewhat similar to Watson both were upright boxers who worked off the jab who had good boxing basics although Watson had a better defence. I thought Watson beat Eubank in their 1st fight and in the rematch Watson was a mile ahead on points as Eubank had immense trouble dealing with Watson's pressure/workrate until Eubank landed a hail mary uppercut late on. I think this is a winnable fight for Pavlik via decision.
Eubank tended to fight to the level required. So, in general, if one put Eubank under pressure, he'd respond in kind and, in the main, look good doing it. To this extent, a walk-forward fighter like Pavlik would suit Eubank. However, I doubt the same can be said of the pressure Pavlik would bring. Sure, Eubank wouldn't make it easy for Pavlik's offense and he'd likely ship any leather that broke through but the challenge would be maintaining that over the course, because Pavlik isn't falling over either, IMO. This is likely a gig over the distance in which Eubank needs to negate Pavlik's assaults with eye-catching counters - and do that enough to distract the judges from Pavlik's output. I lean towards Eubank being able to better exploit the mix of styles but, either way, I suspect there are no walkovers in this one.
I don't disagree with you alot on things TBH I don't think Eubank winning a decision is necessarily the wrong opinion. I just don't think Eubank could outwork Pavlik he liked to fight at his own pace and when a fighter pushed him out of that comfort zone he could struggle. Pavlik would definitely be the more busier opponent in this fight it depends on how much effect Eubank has on Pavlik with his punches and if the judges prefer Eubanks more flashy work overall.
I think Pavlik's more like Rocchigiani than Watson in his technical style. Very tall (huge at middle, possibly too much to have fought there for more than a few years during same day weigh ins) physically strong, basic textbook fighter without a lot of speed, with a strength that lay in steady output of long, straight punches. He didn't have the same difficult to crack Winky Wright'ish static glove defence thatRocky did, was sloppier/less accurate with his punches, but more active and had better power. Of course, Eubank vs Rocchigiani was at 168, some years later. Watson wasn't that upright by the time he fought Eubank, especially in the rematch - he wasn't Toney, but he had a lot more in the way of subtle upperbody slips and angles than Pavlik and was a sophisticated counterpuncher rather than a keep throwing one-twos volume guy. Overall, I think Eubank's clearly the more talented fighter - Pavlik was an average boxer-puncher imo, but he had some good basic attributes at the weight ( size, toughness, power, steady output) and Eubank had enough gaps in his armour ( struggles on the front foot, regular issues with making weight that affected stamina and maintaining form/accuracy later in fights) that being a level or two below in ability was never a guarantee you wouldn't still bring something to trouble him. Some of that only got bad with the weight issues over the second half of his 168 run, but the issues on the front foot and stamina problems were there at 160 as well, just not to the same extent for the latter because he moved up before it became too bad. As this is a 160 fight, when I look at the Benn, Watson, Taylor and Martinez fights, I see Pavlik as the one that has a larger amount of obstacles to overcome and vulnerability shown. - The martinez fight is the one that gives us the best stylistic info. There we see Pavlik (who was probably struggling with weight somewhat by then, tbf) fail to really close down a cute, mobile, unorthodox fighter that is at a size disadvantage (he's about the same height as Chris, from memory). Sergio also has his own stamina/chin issues, isn't nearly as physically strong, and has a sloppier, less well-schooled, easier to hit reflexive style of defence than Eubank. It wasn't an easy fight for Martinez by any means, but Pavlik proved to be too predictable, slow and one-paced to outwork or get to him early-mid, or take charge later. Eubank could be tagged if you were fast, accurate and varied/awkward enough with your punches, but he was really a very capable, smooth defensive fighter in his prime, especially over 7-8 rounds in a more methodical, evenly paced fight... fast reflexes, smooth Napoles'ish head slips, strong upperbody movement and a good glove/arm block and parry skillset; it wasn't often that you saw him tagged with follow-up combinations after a jab/lead got through. Benn missed a lot, yet did get through more than most, and made Eubank exchange more than he would have liked to because he steamed right in with busy, fast-handed, not always orthodox in angles punching aggression, but Pavlik doesn't have that sort of speed, variety and throw caution to the wind brawling prowess. His workrate will make Eubank more active than he ideally wants to be (he won't be able to coast in 2nd gear for half the fight here), but not enough to start showing until circa 8th/9th; his speed/predictable offensive output won't be a regular three minute challenge to Eubank's defence until then. Before that, there's going to be a lot of getting pulled and turned around the ring, struggles to get set, and struggles to land/win exchanges when he does get Eubank in corners/on the ropes. Eubank will probably have more early trouble than usual dialling in the range for his counters to the head, but like against Martinez, Pavlik is too open to take full advantage of his height/reach advantage, and his weight on the front-foot, lean in after punching, pressure style won't take too long to start getting lit up with jabs, right-hands, and uppercuts. I expect Eubank will go to the body a lot like he did with Rocky, then will switch between the two with far more success than against the turtle-shell defence he faced there. I wouldn't call Eubank a big puncher, however he did hit hard and sharply, especially with those uppercuts at mid-range/inside...more than enough to gain Pavlik's respect and more likely to hurt him than the other way around. Fairly competitive fight with Eubank having the clear upper-hand, looking good and not getting hit too much at all until 8th/9th when things get sloppier, Pavlik gets through more, Eubank's inclination to devolve into some weird, sloppy punching of his own comes out(that comedy overhand right, which might actually be a big threat to tall upright Pavlik) and things become a lot harder to score. Eubank doesn't have the gas-tank/poise to keep precise over the whole fight like an old Hopkins. I do think Pavlik (and just about any other good solid fighter) would have a good chance of just steadily outworking the Eubank that had a run of mostly sub-par performances in 93/94 (from Benn rematch to the Schommer robbery) before recovering sharpness against the big puncher Wharton and Collins (in the first fight only). He really did look like he should have moved up in weight by then and his accuracy/output dropped off significantly, regardless of the style or quality in front of him.
