External factors at play in the Joshua-Wallin fight

Joshua’s under pressure to look good against Fury-victim Wallin, partly to put pressure on Fury to fight him at some point if that’s what Joshua wants.

There will be even more pressure if Wilder demolishes mutual opponent Parker on the same card and this may give Joshua Ruiz 1 PTSD, given that occurred just after Wilder KO’d mutual opponent Breazeale in 1 and after Miller had put it on him psychologically, as he did at the most recent press conference. For Joshua's sake, Wilder-Parker should be top of the bill.

Aside from the pressure to look good, Joshua's also under huge pressure above all to not lose (a contradictory motivation, one that could produce dissonance) and he's thinking about future fights against more lucrative opponents, so Joshua’s first instinct will be to play it safe (likely more so with Fury partisan and towel-throwing happy backfoot trainer Davison in his corner; Joshua’s fourth trainer in five fights, who lacks confidence in Joshua, possibly doesn’t want Joshua to look great vs Wallin, who was dangerous when he faced him before, and above all doesn’t want Joshua to lose for the sake of his own reputation) to minimise the risk of getting hurt or losing (and as Wallin’s not a big name and a relatively light puncher, he can be robbed on the cards if worst comes to worst).

Joshua will face more demoralising criticism and his reputation will be further tarnished if he doesn’t stop Wallin but Joshua knows that he hasn’t stopped anyone inside 6 rounds since serial quitter Molina in 2016 which was 12 fights ago, he’s only stopped 3 of his 9 opponents in the previous 6+ years, all of whom were 39 and Wallin is a big, durable, game, avoided, experienced, prime southpaw coming off a career best win as a clear underdog, who Joshua failed to drop or stop in their two amateur fights, so a Joshua KO is unlikely.

The fight is happening on 6 weeks notice, which doesn’t favour Joshua based on his performances against Ruiz 1 and Helenius and could put him even further into his shell.

 

He probably punches harder than the much smaller Usyk, who had plenty to trouble Joshua. Franklin went 12 easily, old Helenius busted Joshua up and went 7. And of course Andy Ruiz smashed Joshua to bits. I don't know what planet people are on if they think Wallin's an easy fight.

Even in Joshua's "prime" he was taken 7 by a green Whyte, 7 by Breazeale and 11 by 41 Wlad. Whyte ducked Wallin and Breazeale got schooled by Wallin.

 

Disagree on both counts. Losing a wide decision in a valiant effort is being a victim relative to winning and pulling one of the great upsets. Fury is favoured to beat Usyk, who is better than Wallin for my money.

 

Wallin gave a good account but still lost. And the universe works in strange ways: the underestimation from the Wallin fight may have been a benefit for Fury in the Wilder rematch, both in giving Fury extra motivation and focus and in masking his tactics. "Fury would be insane to try to walk Wilder down" was the consensus at the time. Wilder's team believed that too.

No, it's because many experts and fans have wised up at this point. Most of the bets are on Usyk, probably most of the money too. Fury's been written off more than any other top heavyweight since Holyfield. As with the Wallin fight, Fury can underestimate a better than expected opponent and produce a great performance several months later. If you're so confident in Usyk winning then show me the betting slip.

"Almost 60% of the bets (58%) on Fury vs Usyk through oddschecker so far this year have gone the way of the Ukrainian, Usyk. Just short of 30% have backed the favourite Tyson Fury."