To me, AA looks like a poor mans version of Mirko Crocop, so I doubt that AA can get the job done, when the much more technically sound and even better striker that is Crocop couldn't. AA has as good a chance as anyone these days, problem is that nobody has good chances against Fedor. I just don't see AA as a threat on the level of a prime Crocop or Nogueira.
If AA cant prevent the takedown. He aint winning. If he does, he has a slight advantage since Fedor doesnt throw kicks