If Juanma beats Rafa Marquez I think he definitely deserves it. Moved up a weight division and beat a respected champion in Luevano, beat another solid guy in Concepcion and then a great in Rafa Marquez. P.S: I don't think Rafa is shot as people make it seem. He looked very sharp in his last fight.
I think it's gotta be either Montiel or Segura for ending the reigns of 2 of the best fighters in their division...and in both cases emphatically.
Pacquiao has ten votes for beating Clottey? Froch doesn't even deserve to be there. Too early to tell, but so far, either Martinez, Pascal, or Kessler even.
Clottey might be a punching bag with a guard against Pacquiao but ask Cotto and Judah if Clottey is just a punching bag with a guard.
If Pascal manages to beat Hopkins then I'd say it's Pascal. If Martinez beats Paul Williams then it would be a good second choice.
Assuming no other big fights get made this year, I think there are four guys with a chance: Martinez, Montiel, Pascal and Dirrell - If Martinez beats Williams convincingly, it's him, period. Convincingly beating the unified middleweight champ (P4P top 20) and a guy who'd P4P top 5 - 10 gets you there this year. He'll also hold the highest rated win of the year other than Mayweather beating Mosley (but considering the shitstorm Mayweather's in, plus the fact he's only fighting once this year, there's no way it's him). - If Martinez loses and Pascal beats Hopkins, it's him, assuming Montiel doesn't fight anyone that great in December. He will have effectively cleaned out light heavyweight in two fights. He already has the third highest rated win of the year in beating Dawson, who most had rated ahead of Calderon and Hasegawa. - If Dirrell beats Ward convincingly, he'll have an argument to be up there with Pascal. If Dirrell beats Ward and Martinez and Pascal both lose, then it's probably him. He will have beaten two top 20 P4P fighters. - For Montiel, it depends on who he fights at the end of the year, but by the sound of it, it won't be anyone that great. Assuming he fights another fringe top 20 guy, he gets it if Martinez, Pascal and Dirrell all lose. If he fights someone in the top 10 at BW, then he could be on about even terms with Pascal. - Segura might be able to sneak up on people if a lot of folks lose and he takes a tough fight at the end of the year. But I doubt it. The other guy with a far outside chance is Tomasz Adamek. If for some reason they make Adamek-Klitschko at the end of this year and Adamek wins, then it's probably him.